Sealion Version 1.0

@WILD:

@bugoo:

Don’t forget the 1 inf, 1 arm, 1 fig from alexandria that can get up there.   8-)

That’s something I don’t think I’ve heard before. They have the movement points to get to England in two turns. Could they (tpt w/ground troops) get through the Med though? They would have to be in sz 92 end of UK1. Sz 92 is not exactly safe from the axis.

Is is with a cruiser block in SZ 94.  Only way for the germans to hit it would be to land planes in africa on G2, out of range for G3 sea lion.

@bugoo:

@WILD:

@bugoo:

Don’t forget the 1 inf, 1 arm, 1 fig from alexandria that can get up there.   8-)

That’s something I don’t think I’ve heard before. They have the movement points to get to England in two turns. Could they (tpt w/ground troops) get through the Med though? They would have to be in sz 92 end of UK1. Sz 92 is not exactly safe from the axis.

Is is with a cruiser block in SZ 94.  Only way for the germans to hit it would be to land planes in africa on G2, out of range for G3 sea lion.

Also, if the transport by the UK survives, it can join up with the transport from Egypt and load up two French infantry from North Africa which then unload on UK on French turn 2.

Look how distorted UK1 becomes just because of the threat of Sealion.
Italy rules the Med, for instance.

All this before Germany even commits to the TT purchase G2.
Looks like a win for the Axis, regardless.

How?  Italy is going to take egypt no matter what you do for a few turns, and you still cost them the no ships in the med NO.  On top of that, to keep there transports at egypt safe they have to move there fleet out of position.  The UK can keep the carrier and/or destroyer and transport there, use it to liberate egypt, use it to strike at italy or where ever they decide.  Yes it hurts you in Africa, but income wise the axis need Italy to hit the 30 mark to remain competitive.

After looking closely at this G3 Sealion, it does have more flexibility than my G2 plan.

UK cant escape unless they buy crap first to prepare or they lose. Germany gets to play “on the button” as they say in poker… the last to act after seeing what others do, but holding the decisions first.

This is his plan in a manner of which is more readable.

GERMANY: Turn 1

Purchase:

1 CV, 1 SS, 1 AP

save
$1

Land Combat Movements:
Holland  to Normandy: 1 inf, 1 art
Romania to Yugoslavia:1 inf, 1 tank
Slovakia to Yugoslavia:2 inf, 1 tank
South Germany to Yugoslavia:2 inf
West Germany to France:2 inf, 1 art, 4 Mech
Holland to France: 3 inf, 3 tanks
South Germany to France: 2 tanks
Poland to Yugoslavia: 1 Tank

Key land battle results:

Battle of France
5 Inf, 4 Mech, 1 Art, 5 tanks vs. 7 Inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 Fighter

R1

Attack
5 Inf, 4 Mech, 1 art, 5 tanks = 27 - 5 hits
Defend
7 Inf, 2 art, 2 tank, 1 Fighter = 28 - 5 hits

R2

Attack
4 Mech, 1 art, 5 tanks = 22 - 4 hits
Defend
2 Inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 Fighter = 18 - 3 hits

R3

Attack
1 Mech, 1 art, 5 tanks = 19 - 3 hits
Defend
2 tanks, 1 Fighter = 10 - 2 hits

75% battle for Germany

Battle of Yugoslavia:
5 Inf, 3 tanks vs. 5 Inf

R1

Attack
5 Inf, 3 tanks = 14 - 2 hits
Defend
5 Inf = 10 - 2 hits

R2

Attack
3 Inf, 3 tanks = 12 - 2 hits
Defend
3 Inf = 6 - 1 hit

R3

Attack
2 Inf, 3 tanks = 11 - 2 hits
Defend
1 Inf = 2 - 0 hit

98% battle for Germany

Sea Zone 106 Attacks:
From Sea Zone 117: 1 SS
From Sea Zone 118: 1 SS

Battle of sz106
2 SS vs 1 DD, 1 AP
Attack
2 SS = 4 - 1 hit
Defend
1 DD = 2 - 0 hit

78% battle for Germany

Sea Zone 109 Attacks:
From Holland: 1 Fighter
From Sea Zone 108: 1 SS

Battle of sz109
1 SS, 1 Fighter vs. 1 DD, 1 AP
Attack
1 SS, 1 Fighter = 5 - 1 hit
Defend
1 DD = 2 - 0 hit

88% battle for Germany

I’ll lose the SS, as I didn’t lose one in sz106

Sea Zone 111 attacks:
From Norway: 1 Fighter
From Sea Zone 124: 1 SS
From West Germany: 1 Tactical Bomber
From Germany: 1 Bomber

Battle of sz111
1 SS, 1 Fighter, 1 tactical, 1 Bomber vs. 1 BB, 1 CA

R1
Attack
1 SS, 1 Fighter, 1 tactical, 1 Bomber = 13 - 2 hits
Defend
1 CA, 1 BB = 7 - 1 hit

R2
Attack
1 Fighter, 1 tactical, 1 Bomber = 11 - 2 hits
Defend
1 damaged BB = 4 - 1 hit

90% battle for Germany

Sea Zone 112 Attacks:
From Sea Zone 113: 1 BB, 1 CA
From West Germany: 1 Fighter

Battle of Sea Zone 112
1 CR, 1 BB, 1 Fighter vs. 2 CA

Attack
1 CA, 1BB, 1 Fighter = 10 - 2 hits
Defend
2 CA = 6 - 1 hit

96% battle for Germany

Sea Zone 110 Attacks:
From Sea Zone 103: 1 SS
From West Germany : 1 Fighter, 2 Tactical

Battle of sz110
1 SS, 1 Fighter, 2 tactical vs. 1 DD, 1 BB

R1
Attack
1 SS, 1 Fighter, 2 tactical = 12 - 2 hits
Defend
1 DD, 1 BB = 6 - 1 hit

R2
Attack
1 Fighter, 2 tactical = 10 - 2 hits
Defend
1 Damaged BB = 4 - 1 hit

93% battle for Germany

Non Combat Movement:

Germany to West Germany
6 Inf, 4 art

South Germany to West Germany
4 Inf

South Germany to Germany
1 art

Sea Zone 113 to Sea Zone 115
1 AP ( load from Poland 2 Inf to Finland)

Romania to Bulgaria
1 Inf

Norway to Finland
2 Inf

Sea Zone111 to West Germany
1 Tactical, 1 Bomber

Sea Zone 110 to West Germany
2 Tactical

Sea Zone 109 to Sea Zone 112
1 Fighter

Place

1 CV, 1 TT, 1 SS in Sea Zone 112

Collect

$64

The nice thing is Germany on her G2 turn can build 9 more AP’s giving them 11 total and landing on G3:

11 Inf, 8 tanks and 3 artillery 4 fighters, 3 tactical bombers, 1 bomber and 1 BB, 1 CA

Against:

23 UK infantry 3 fighters, 1 tactical bomber, 1 tank

Germany wins 85.7 to 13.3%

If i made a mistake and UK has 24 infantry, then the odds are 78% to 20%

There’s a 40% chance that you will lose or draw one or more of the following battles: France, Z110, 111, 112

Thats really high!

@Imperious:

Thats really high!

40% chance you’ll lose or 60% chance you’ll win?

If either Brit BB survives, it can kill the German fleet. If Z112 goes badly, Germany can’t sealion until g3. If France doesn’t fall, Germany builds 3 less transports G2

40% chance you’ll lose or 60% chance you’ll win?

Yea. If you combine all these 90% attacks and assign a 40% cumulative to them, its the best you can hope for.

Now many attacks can get you 85%+

The 40% chance is one battle goes wrong. This plan can survive one miss and will win

It cant survive not killing one of the Uk BB’s. That causes uk to have enough on UK1 to kill SZ 112 fleet.

Well please do it quick. This strategy is the holy grail of AAE40.

Post the blocks on UK1 and UK 2

And always use low luck because nobody can make claims about statistical variations or %.

@jim010:

I may alter this a bit.

It occured to me to change a couple details (b/c of bugaboo!)

But as IL said - I can buy the CV and watch what happens.

Only da wife is allowed to call me that Jim!  :evil:

But I guess that just means I have to find more ways to counter.  I don’t see this ever becoming like the India crush, maybe the turn 1 pearl, but never the India crush.

I see the concept of forced buys a very poor design feature. The whole idea is to allow many ways to get the job done without risking your entire game if you don’t do a certain thing because play-test didn’t have time to see all the angles.

The other thing is this constant “nuclear navy” feature that most navy’s are sunk on the first turn. Thats a terrible set up to even allow that.

@Imperious:

11 Inf, 8 tanks and 3 artillery 4 fighters, 3 tactical bombers, 1 bomber and 1 BB, 1 CA
Against:
23 UK infantry 3 fighters, 1 tactical bomber, 1 tank
Germany wins 85.7 to 13.3%
If i made a mistake and UK has 24 infantry, then the odds are 78% to 20%

Although you have posted UK forces as if the transport in lab survives you have also posted the maximum nr of attacking planes, whereas this number is likely to be lower with the disposed attacks. You have yourself stated that 2 planes is likely to be lost.

One flaw with the way you are posting probabilities is the concept of winning a battle. In particular you are posting the odds of killing all the enemies in a grid block while having 1 or more unit alive. For instance; if you are left with 1 bomber in 111 and 1 tac in 110 thats a win by this definition, whereas its really not, it will break sealion.

As I got the battle calculator I’ve programmed at work I’m unable to back this up by quantitative numbers, but I’ll get back to this tomorrow.

After seeing this tactic in play I have a few questions for the doubters:

1.  Even if Jim’s math is slightly out - which depending on the methods used I agree with you can vary. 
I think it is crystal clear that the tactic provides for a better then 60% chance of capturing UK on turn 3, do you agree?

2. What would you do if you went with Jim’s tactic and it failed to capture UK on turn 3?

I know what I would do.  load the transports again and hit turn 4, which given the Uk’s very limited resources has got to be a much higher probabilty, then the 78% on turn 3.

3. Your assuming a perfect defence with the UK, which I might add total screws the UK in the med and the atlantic even if they manage to hold (which requires luck) do you think any player that hadn’t seen it would stand a chance against it?

4. Do any of you  think for a second that the game designers, really desgined a game “on purpose”, in which in MOST games played with the out of the box rules allows for the capture of UK on turn 3 and at worst turn 4?

It seems clear to me that Jim broke the game, good job with the math and great job with the overall tactic. It is clear we need to be discussing a fix, not if the tactcic works or not… It works, and what is more clear is that the math supports it working just about every game.

Actually yes, I do believe it was designed for sea lion to be a possibility, maybe not this high in odds but yes.  And no, I don’t think it breaks the game yet.

Remember all the Gencon posts of UK falling and Russia liberating it?  I have no clue how on earth that would work, but it seems likely that it was expected to happen.