@Imperious:

11 Inf, 8 tanks and 3 artillery 4 fighters, 3 tactical bombers, 1 bomber and 1 BB, 1 CA
Against:
23 UK infantry 3 fighters, 1 tactical bomber, 1 tank
Germany wins 85.7 to 13.3%
If i made a mistake and UK has 24 infantry, then the odds are 78% to 20%

Although you have posted UK forces as if the transport in lab survives you have also posted the maximum nr of attacking planes, whereas this number is likely to be lower with the disposed attacks. You have yourself stated that 2 planes is likely to be lost.

One flaw with the way you are posting probabilities is the concept of winning a battle. In particular you are posting the odds of killing all the enemies in a grid block while having 1 or more unit alive. For instance; if you are left with 1 bomber in 111 and 1 tac in 110 thats a win by this definition, whereas its really not, it will break sealion.

As I got the battle calculator I’ve programmed at work I’m unable to back this up by quantitative numbers, but I’ll get back to this tomorrow.