How to counter sealion attack

[Jennifer]

The problem to speculation, of course, is you can never test FOR a strategy or AGAINST a strategy.  The Strategy has to be organic, if your opponent KNOWS what you are going to do and you are locked in, he can ignore other avenues and claim (when you deviate to win) that you cheated.

That’s a trap I fell in a few times.  Of course, it’s my opinion that if you have to alter yourself in such a way to stop a strategy from succeeding that you allow your opponent to alter her strategy and exploit you in a more conventional manner, then the strategy worked because she still won. :P

For instance, had a situation back in Alpha 2 where America could bloody well forget Europe altogether and run rough-shod over the Japanese like a Panzer II blowing through a wheatfield as its only resistance. Sure the Panzer got stuck in the mud sometimes, but it generally won against the amber waves of grain!  England and Russia could just hold out long enough for the Americans to erase Japan as a threat (notice, I never said Japan itself was taken) and then America, with more income than Germany and Italy combined and more power than can possibly be imagined could get to Euro/Africa fast enough to prevent a VC win by the Germans.  After that, it was a matter of time.

So I started seeing people test that theory and they’d do crazy shizzit like fly the entire Japanese airforce to suicide against Russia and push infantry to islands in the pacific to defend against American transports.  Neither event happens in a routine game, nor would any player do this if they thought America might start dumping more forces in the Atlantic to compensate for drastically reduced resistance in the Pacific.  For instance, one guy thought it was legitamite to suicide the entire Japanese airforce on Egpyt to bust it open so the Italians could drive through - okay, sure, but the ENTIRE Japanese air force?  And while America has 3x the war material in the Pacific than Japan because Japan focused on airforce only purchases to fly to Europe?  Not a standard strategy.  It worked though, and I thought it was cheap as heck, but the Russians fell the same round I decided to just take Japan (because Japan had 6 infantry, 1 artillery, 1 armor on it for defense after literally spending 100% of their income making planes and flying them asap to Europe)

So basically, its impossible to test for a specific strategy, rather, you have to go research games in which a strategy was employed and then discuss the merits on that basis.

[cyanight]

Very well said Cmdr Jennifer.  I have been doing most of that lately.  It kinda reminds me of learning chess openings ;)

[theROCmonster]

@DizzKneeLand33:

@theROCmonster:

What if US ignores Europe all together and goes 100% after Japan? Also, how much are you winning the battle for England with?

Well, that may be the difference.  I wouldn’t want to have a toss-up battle in England.  Hence, when I say with 90/10 odds, I would in the middle of the expected results want to have 8+ land units left, and those tanks can be dispatched back to the mainland over several turns while building 3 inf/turn in the UK (until that is no longer necessary).  If the US is going 100% after Japan, then the UK needs very little defense, so this transfer of attacking units back to the mainland will happen much quicker.  At that point, you can even split off part of your German Navy to help Italy quickly dominate Africa.  With all of those extra IPC’s, I don’t see how it is possible for Russia to break through all by her lonesome.

I’m not even sure that 8+ land units is necessary to have remaining in the UK, I’m only using that as a rough guide.

Winning Egypt is a given, and then attacking from both the south (through the Middle East) and the north (in both cases the boats are still useful) is all the Axis has to do.  Japan could go down in this scenario and it doesn’t matter – hence, building a few mainland IC’s and then sending fast units West can be part of the plan when needed, temporarily ignoring the U.S. threat.

Italy simply fills in the gaps where necessary, including holding the Med.  Of course, if the U.S. is going 100% towards Japan, there isn’t much of a threat to the Med.  Even if Russia were to be at 55 income, with Italy (with NO’s) pulling in over 30, I don’t see how the Allies are winning that kind of game…

So are you buying a carrier 2 transports first turn, and then 10 transports second turn and attacking with 26 ground and 10 planes on Turn 3?

[Jennifer]

The traditional Sea Lion is Aircraft Carrier and Destroyer or Aircraft Carrier and 2 transports round 1, then 10 transports round 2.  So if London falls on Round 3 it is liberated on Round 5.  That’s not a whole helluva lot of time to recover from Paris and London before you see Yanks in Normandy and Comrades in Poland!

[kku]

If london falls on round3, can US liberate it on round 5? :?

In my case, germany will buy sub and plane to block US, italy or genmany can also send fighters to defend london. If the germany land force on london is around ten after sealion, US will have diffculty on invading london. Even london fall on round 5 by US, germany can recapture london on round 6 if US land force is not big enough to hold it which gives germany free ipc.

[ItIsILeClerc]

You clearly have not suffered a Russian offensive before, kku ;-).

What you say can be done, but with a Red Army knocking on the doors of Eastern Europe already, recapturing London will just invite Stalin into Berlin, but not for Schnapps and Apfelstrudel…

That having said, liberating London without destroying the kriegsmarine is pointless, ofc. Destroying all German TRS (and the kriegsmarine with it, if possible) is priority 1 and should be done in the same turn as Germany captures London.
But even with all German TRS still intact, sending more men into London may well be the death of Germany at the hands of Russia.

Liberating London has its limits too, ofc.
The USA cannot simply spend all necessary IPCs in Europe because it also has the Pacific to worry about. It must taylor a taskforce of ~150TUV so it can 1). destroy the kriegsmarine the turn it sticks its head out to take London and 2). liberate London or ignore it if too heavily defended and take whatever the Germans cannot counter (Normandy/SF/Norway if not already taken by Russia) and last but not least keep Japan out of Hawaii/Sydney. The latter is why I estimate the TUV the USA has available cannot exceed ~150.

With only ~150TUV, after producing the means to destroy the kriegsmarine the USA can have 6 to7 TRS for an invasion force. That’s ~21 units (including air) to attack the London defenders with.
So, much depends on how many German survivors there were after taking London. If Germany takes London with 1 tank, 5FTR and 5TAC and can prevent immediate liberation (SZ blockers), Germany can defend with 14 units (18 if Italy flies in all its aircraft). Not enough and Germany/Italy will loose all their aircraft. Russia advances and game over.
Now, if Germany took London with MORE than 1ARM + 10FTR/TAC, ahhhh that’s another thing entirely! I’d say Germany needs 14 survivors after attacking London at least, to make taking it anything better than a disaster. And still, German Luftwaffe is needed to defend London, giving Russia easy time in Eastern Europe…

[Jennifer]

It is my opinion that Germany, already having lost a lot of air power and navy to the British and French, cannot afford to put more navy onto the  board and any new aircraft will probably be used to try and keep the Russian hoards at bay.

For instance, if Germany puts 10 transports out on Round 2 for the conquest of London, my Russia 3 is to move the Russian army into E. Poland and land the planes there as well.  Keep in mind, I generally push my AA Guns forward as well and some of those will be present in E. Poland as well.

Germany 3 London falls.  US Goes to war and moves the Atlantic fleet to E. Canada areas (1 turn away from landing troops in England) and Russia moves into Romania and potentially Hungary.

I cannot predict round 4 because now serious dice have been cast and we are beyond the basic strategy of just saying Germany takes London and how do the allies win now?  The idea now is to have full court press by the Russians in Europe, an American expedition force who’s job is to either keep the Germans from refocusing on Russia (while Liberating England on round 4 maybe 5 if Germany did REALLY well with dice or England did REALLY bad with dice) or start exploiting Scandinavia because Germany did refocus on Russia and start the shuck-shuck of troops into Leningrad.  Kinda like normal for the US except for the liberation of England requirement, and you do get that extra round of super American economy!

[WILD BILL]

CJ (or others), just wondering if you have ever attempted an allied neutral crush after a successful Sea lion? I know this sounds crazy, but would be fun to attempt. I know a lot would depend on the capabilities of the German navy/air (if one or both took a hit), and what Italy is up to.

At this point (after a G3 Sea lion) the Germans will be spent and looking to def London and the Russian hordes. Any German ground left in Europe is probably heading towards Berlin (not hanging out in France). The Germans wouldn’t expect an invasion of “New Spain”. Many of the other true neutrals could also be hit by the allies at roughly the same time (some just to wipe out units the axis would gain if necessary).

Start on Russia3 (now at war) strafing Turkey (maybe even take it in force depending on Italian/German position to break into the Balkans). Easy enough to set-up w/Germany buying mostly boats. Could also start a Scandinavian invasion (3 IPC NOs, and bleeds German units) while putting the squeeze on Eastern Europe. Mongolia doesn’t go pro-axis because it is a Russian ally now (Japan can attack them, but they don’t turn axis like other true neutrals).

US (now at war) could have a couple loaded carriers sitting in sz102 (w/other naval units), and those planes could hit the Spanish and land back on the carriers in sz91. US transports go from US coast to Spanish coast (sz91) for amphib (w/bombardment and air power). Can you get enough US ground units to Spain to hold it for a round (before reinforcements come). Can you block out the German navy from hitting the US navy at Gib sz91 (Italy could play spoiler).

UK3-Could the UK get just a couple planes to Spain on UK3 to reinforce the US after London falls. Maybe they did Taranto, and have some air in the Med. UK-India (probably retreating from the Japanese) could take Afg, as other UK units strafe/take what ever they can in Africa/Mid East. Anz3 could easily get into S America with the right planning (easier for them to gain income there then fighting Japan for island NO’s). Then the tiny Anz navy could return later to help the US w/Japan (with some income?).

You would have the Russians pouring into Eastern Europe, and the Americans establish in New Spain. From there you threaten London, Rome, Paris, and Africa. The Germans/Italians would be hard pressed to stop the vice on the continent if you could get and hold “New Spain” then move inland to the French coastal IC’s……

Just wondering if it would help to bleed Germany (immediate 2 face ground war) then deal with the mighty Orange Godzilla in a couple turns.

[Jennifer]

You mean instead of liberating London?  I don’t think it’s wise to do first, England makes more money a round if it is unconquered than you’d get from these territories.  However, a neutral crush on round 4 or 5 might be possible.

However, the Russians would do well to take Scandinavia - will be hard for Germany to liberate, takes another German NO away, easily reinforced by the British/Americans and gives 2 or 3 NOs to Russia (depending on if you take Sweeden too.)  Yes the Germans had the transports to take London, but I’m assuming the United States Army Air Corps took those out a while ago by the time Russia has Norway, Finland and potentially Sweeden.

[theROCmonster]

It’s pretty hard for the allies to take out the German fleet though. Unless US is spending 100% Atlantic for at least the first 3 turns. Taking Scandinavia won’t be worth it because Germany can always reach men there with his transports. Better to have all your units south taking out Romania, Iraq, Greece, Yugo, Hungry, Poland, Albania, and Bulgaria. There should be no way for the axis to stop this.

[Jennifer]

Can get the German fleet early if they focus on London.  The will lose a LOT of planes over London, and their fleet will consist of mostly transports with a few extra boats.  May cost CinCATLANTIC’s fleet, but that can be rebuilt faster than Germany can get new boats in the water.  Meanwhile, London is free and Russia is not facing 15 planes anymore, they are facing 5.  With the extra income for Russia, they could put a couple more planes in the air themselves to even that score a bit.

Keep in mind, Germany cannot both produce troops to hold the Russians, AND planes to replenish losses, AND replace boats destroyed by the Americans.  It’s more likely that Germany has the AC, DD and 10 XPorts in the Baltic with no other ships and is frantically pushing infantry to hold back the Russians at breakneck speeds.  Meanwhile, Russia with a foothold in Europe is probably keeping pace with the German Luftwaffe and is pushing infantry and armor into SE Europe themselves.  Perhaps even going so far as dropping a complex with access to the Med Sea for more NOs by taking a couple Axis islands.  Assuming the Allies clear the Med eventually (this complex wouldn’t be early on, I am thinking around turn 8 or 9 perhaps.)

[DizzKneeLand33]

@Cmdr:

The will lose a LOT of planes over London, and their fleet will consist of mostly transports with a few extra boats.  May cost CinCATLANTIC’s fleet, but that can be rebuilt faster than Germany can get new boats in the water.  Meanwhile, London is free and Russia is not facing 15 planes anymore, they are facing 5.

If Germany is a good player, he/she would never do a sea lion to only have 5 planes and one tank left.  At that point, Germany would use a different strategy….

[Jennifer]

12 Planes at start

• 1 France
• 1 Adriatic Sea
• 3 over London (at least averaging 4 lost between London and Adriatic sea, giving it to London due the massive number of AA Guns)
• 2 Clear the British Navy
  Remaining Planes: 5

I don’t think that’s unreasonable expectations.  You COULD save some here or there, but you COULD lose more here or there as well.  (with 6 AA Guns to deal wit, at 3 shots each, it’s not too hard to imagine more an 3 planes getting lost to AA Gun fire somewhere.)

I am also assuming no new planes are purchased in the first two rounds, as all IPC are accounted for in creating the defense fleet on round 1, and the transport fleet on round 2.  Note, I used the term “a lot of planes” because 3 or 4 lost over London is 25-33% of their starting planes, which is a significant percentage.

[ItIsILeClerc]

@DizzKneeLand33:

@Cmdr:

The will lose a LOT of planes over London, and their fleet will consist of mostly transports with a few extra boats.  May cost CinCATLANTIC’s fleet, but that can be rebuilt faster than Germany can get new boats in the water.  Meanwhile, London is free and Russia is not facing 15 planes anymore, they are facing 5.

If Germany is a good player, he/she would never do a sea lion to only have 5 planes and one tank left.  At that point, Germany would use a different strategy….

I wouldn’t do SL indeed with those figures.
I’m curious though, what is the break-even point for you guys to abandon SL with the axis?

For me personally it’s 15 units surviving. Below that I don’t deem SL worthy and above that number of units I’m not giving it a second thought as well, but for different reasons ;-).

[DizzKneeLand33]

Why are the odds 1/1 for losing a plane in France?  In addition, even if I only have 8 planes left to fly over London, the odds of losing 3 are not very good.  I know there are 6 aa guns there, but the most shots fired at each plane is 1/plane – so, there are only 8 shots in that scenario, not 18…

EDIT:  Aren’t there only 5 aa guns there??

[Jennifer]

I added the French gun to the list of total AA Guns.

Even if Germany gets lucky and has 7 or 8 planes left, they don’t have enough to deal with England, America and Russia and protect their fleet and mount a resistance of any force in England to resist liberation, or to help in Africa.  They just don’t have the movement points for all of that.

I still think it’s safe to assume, as the German player, I only have 5 or 6 planes left and make a strategy accordingly.  Just like as the German player, I have to assume Russia will not lose a single plane the entire game until we mount an attack on Moscow itself or that I can ever have a submarine in the N. Atlantic while he US is at war and not throwing off an invasion of t’s mainland.

In other words, I assume the worst plausible situation for the argument, and the argument is that Germany can take London and France and not get steam rolled by the allies in the process.

[theROCmonster]

@ItIsILeClerc:

@DizzKneeLand33:

@Cmdr:

The will lose a LOT of planes over London, and their fleet will consist of mostly transports with a few extra boats.  May cost CinCATLANTIC’s fleet, but that can be rebuilt faster than Germany can get new boats in the water.  Meanwhile, London is free and Russia is not facing 15 planes anymore, they are facing 5.

If Germany is a good player, he/she would never do a sea lion to only have 5 planes and one tank left.  At that point, Germany would use a different strategy….

I wouldn’t do SL indeed with those figures.
I’m curious though, what is the break-even point for you guys to abandon SL with the axis?

For me personally it’s 15 units surviving. Below that I don’t deem SL worthy and above that number of units I’m not giving it a second thought as well, but for different reasons ;-).

What do you buy first turn with Germany to get 15 units surviving?

If it is a carrier and two transports, then my question is are those units worth it later if you can’t go sea lion? In other words is it a better buy than 6 art and 2 inf vs Russia?

[ItIsILeClerc]

@theROCmonster:

(…)
What do you buy first turn with Germany to get 15 units surviving?

If it is a carrier and two transports, then my question is are those units worth it later if you can’t go sea lion? In other words is it a better buy than 6 art and 2 inf vs Russia?

If you’d asked me this half a year ago I would have said 7art. Just that. Save 2IPCs and get Germany to 70IPCs for G2. I’d then surprise-SL if the UK makes a mistake (allowing G3 SL to have >=15 units surviving), buying 10TRS G2. Surely the 11 TRS will be dead without proper protection, but (is my rationale) I would loose them anyway versus a USA that makes it priority 1 to kill them during SL.

Currently I see an opportunistic German player can do great things with a fleetbuy G1. If I’d want to keep the option of a SL open I’d defeinately go for that CV + 2 TRS (CV + DD + Sub is great as well but for other purposes since as the UK I wouldn’t be extra alarmed for SL-options).
The CV + TRS are definately worth it later on if SL is made too risky. Half a year ago I wouldn’t have believed that but recent experience opened my eyes ;-).

There’s two things Germany can do that makes a CV + 2TRS worth it if SL won’t be launched:

• Take/reinforce Gibraltar, combining with Italy if UK makes certain mistakes. This is not for keeping the Rock but for seriously delaying the USA and UK to establish a threat in Western Europe. Meanwhile, Germany can focus on Russia a couple of turns more, making up for the lost threat due to first turn fleetbuys. The most rosy scenario is that Germany can move the complete Kriegsmarine into the med but that is not guaranteed to succeed…

• If SL and the above are not possible/deemed worth it (especially with an early JDOW), the warships can still be used as blockers (sacrifical or not) against the USA to delay its entry into Western Europe, again buying 1 or 2 more turns to focus on Russia (USA cannot invade if blocked off). In this case, it won’t be more than 2 turns but it still makes up for the G1 fleetbuy. In short, a G1 fleetbuy, if used properly, can move the timewindow for an assault on Moscow a couple of turns forwards. So G6 Moscow becomes G7 Moscow (if at all possible).

It may look like a waste to use the kriegsmarine as sacrifical blockers (even the CV if need be -stripped down of aircraft, ofc), but if Moscow is the target and it gets the job done its trading the fleet for Moscow… The alternative is cowering the kriegsmarine @ Leningrad, hoping you get a chance to strike back on an allied mistake.
Anyway, with the above plan in mind, this should give the UK/USA a more than usual difficult time defending the first couple of turns, as they go before Italy (which can thus react and dive into weak spots). Also depending on the dice ofc, it is a difficult task for the UK to defend London + Gibraltar + Egypt. The latter is less important in this scenario because the UK has the option to retreat from Egypt, planning to take it back 1 or 2 turns after Italy dives into it.

[theROCmonster]

I agree with you. Buying fleet the first turn forces an all out buy for the defense of London, and thus helps Italy out.

[Jennifer]

IMHO, Germany gets Aircraft Carrier, Destroyer and either 2 infantry or 1 artillery on round 1.  Round 2 is 10 transports.

Then there are losses in Normandy, France and other territories round 1.  More losses round 2.  I’d be surprised to see more than 3 or 4 ground units left in London after Germany takes it.  Meanwhile, yes, Italy has less resistance in N. Africa, but it has infinitely more resistance in Europe from infantry pushed in by Russia.

Just my opinion, but I do not see a winning game for Germany/Italy if they take London early.  They MIGHT be able to draw some American over-reaction and hope Japan can win, but I doubt we’d see a VC win by the Axis in Europe.