World economy

[Amon-Sul]

I would like that we discuss world economy, if there are people interested in it.

We can discuss some states, regions and continents in particular.

Predictions, systems, social issues, everything…

Just keep it out of the politics area. Pure economy, without too much emotions.

Do U think this 21.century will be a century of China?

Can China become a dominant economic power and stay on the throne to the end of the century?

Will India progress more and more?

Can Germany and Japan defend their great industry and export capacities?

What will happen with eurozone and Greece?

Can the economy of Brazil help it to transform from a developing country to a developed country?

Africa? food production? Is there a hope for Africa?

[Gargantua]

Emphasis on the “north” part of North America. ;)

I’m sorry to say peters, but I don’t have alot of faith in the current “government” trend you guys have down there…  :( Bad for you, bad for us, and bad for business.  More spending in a presidency, than all other presidencies combined…

Also, no one gives a sht about quality of life in china. Or how many chinese peasants have to die. Especially the Chinese government.  That’s not how they are going to measure their “success”.

I say we are due for any number of conflicts, and the powers to be, will be the ones coming out on top of that.

[suprise attack]

Too many poor people and trying to bring their income up to the standards of the States or Canada, cant happen, we shouldnt try to solve the worlds problems, we have too many here….Socialism doesnt work

[Mallery29]

@rjpeters70:

China by 2040 will be lucky to have the quality of life and international clout that Japan has today.  So, no, it won’t be the power of the 21st Century.

Live in a Japanese house during the winter time where heat and insulation don’t exist….then tell me about the high quality of life they have!

[Mallery29]

@rjpeters70:

Lol… I never said it was a high quality of life, just intimated that it was higher than your average ChiCom.

Sorry…I’m just bitter right now because most of the stores are running low on food because Japan can’t keep the freeways open when snow storms hit…they don’t use salt and I question what they consider a snow plow…I also lost out on a trip to Fuji this weekend due to those snowstorms closing the Yoko/Yoko and Tomei tollways…the only comfort I had today was my Tully’s and the hot baristas.

[Gargantua]

Who needs a snow plow or salt when you have RADIATION to melt the ice on the roads. pfftp.

That should be keeping you warm!

[Mallery29]

@Gargantua:

Who needs a snow plow or salt when you have RADIATION to melt the ice on the roads. pfftp.

That should be keeping you warm!

As a former nuclear submariner, I find that funny. In Groton, CT when it was winter and blustering cold outside with snow fall, all the ship topisde would get covered with snow EXCEPT the area where the Reactor Compartment!  That was always a good joke for all of us about the radiation (it was actually due to the heat of the space becauase it was awfully warm in there even when shutdown).

[Gargantua]

In and around Vancouver BC, a lot of grow ops get busted after the first snow.  As the average roof temperature is much higher on thegrows than the regular homes. Lol.

[Gargantua]

Mallery - not to be morbid, but I have to ask…

On the list of things that can go wrong for a submariner… Are you more worried about sinking into the abyss forever? Or a catastrophic reactor failure / explosion?

Or something even more intimidating?  Like  portal that releases baby Gojira’s?

[Mallery29]

@Gargantua:

Mallery - not to be morbid, but I have to ask…
On the list of things that can go wrong for a submariner… Are you more worried about sinking into the abyss forever? Or a catastrophic reactor failure / explosion?
Or something even more intimidating?  Like  portal that releases baby Gojira’s?

Gojira is a name of one of the Industrial Cranes on base….always worried about putting the Scorpion and Thresher three section on eteranal patrol (for nuke subs go).  Rule of thumb for Machinery Division was to keep those bastards port and starboard on eternal patrol (sick watch joke I know, and I know few will get it). Never worried about the Reactor…reactors don’t explode.  So we always tried to maintain our submerge to surface ratio 1 to 1…I think worrying about a phantom shitter in a bag was more of a concern than the reactor stuff…

just for you Garg…  http://www.buzzfeed.com/tanyachen/heartwarming-ways-canada-has-already-won-the-winter-olymp?bffb

[Mallery29]

Oh, and even though it’s 50 plus degrees here, the highways still are closed, and will be closed for the rest of the week because of another impending snow storm…I’m not talking about Buffalo like snow here…I’m talking about 1-4" over the course of a day.  This is NOT a 1st world country…

…does a first world country try to circumvent jackets as well when it is cold???
http://en.rocketnews24.com/2014/02/16/are-100-adhesive-warmers-enough-to-take-on-a-tokyo-snow-storm/

[MrMalachiCrunch]

Living next to Buffalo I can tell you the snow storms aren’t bad now.  Now that lake Erie is fully frozen over there is no more lake effect snow.  Of course now the worry is that there will be a large non-lake effect snow fall followed up by a wind storm to blow a laketop full of snow onto shore Blizzard of 77 style.  Gosh that storm was fun for a warmly dressed kid!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blizzard_of_1977

As for who will own the 21st Century….

China’s economy will overtake that of the US but they will have less surplus to spend as it’s spread out over 4 times as many people as that in the US.

Shortly after that India will overtake both due to demographics.  China will have relatively old population compared to a younger India with more working age folk.

China will be an environmental mess and lack the innovation of India and the US.

The US with a net surplus of energy should be in fine shape but perhaps not the only big kid on the block or not even the biggest kid, but perhaps the most fit and well balanced.  Well balanced economically but perhaps not politically and mentally…who is!?

[Mallery29]

I would say India could do it if they had a more viable infrastructure in their key areas. I’m afraid that even with China’s potential non-nuclear Chernobyl on its way with it’s catostrophic smog, they will still beat India because India can not focus on solid infrastructure in its key areas. China can easily ignore it’s West, because it’s might is on the East.  The environmental disaster they face will come to its tipping point, and I’m sure we will be forced to assist (man, this sounds like ST:6!).  India is still a very broken social country and I don’t see that changing anytime soon (yes, more broken than China).

In the end, it comes to who will change first, and I don’t see India doing it.  China has proven over and over again the ability to reinvent itself to grow.

[General Haig]

Atlantropa

[MrMalachiCrunch]

Hey Mallery.  I generally agree with your assessment of China’s superior infrastructure it has come at a cost in terms of local debt loads which may yet implode the Chinese economy, doubtful but a possibility.  China is not to be underestimated in their capacity for required change, and a centrally led single party system can force it to occur.

However, technological innovation favours India.  India does desperately lack infrastructure and their splintered democratic system does not allow them to pave over farmers fields as easily as China can.  On the other hand, capitalist systems tend to be more stable over the long term.  Provided corruption is not to great democratic/capitalist systems tend to wring the most out of the resources at hand by best allocating resources.  China has too many ghost cities and malls to be healthy, but they sure do prop up local GDP numbers on borrowed money.

Google “China ghost town”

one of the first links…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-21/chinas-ghost-cities-are-multiplying

[Mallery29]

Ghost towns appear in the US all the time….check out west, you’ll see it happening…Hunger Games?  Yep, ghost town…nothing new here…happens.

I would disagree about innovation.  What is being innovated?  I could say it is being retooled and improved, but very few innovations that spur economies happen outside the US.  Everyone else takes our shit and turns it into business. See Japan, China, etc (and now Iran by taking our drones!).

[Amon-Sul]

Well, one thing is certain.

We are entering a very interesting period of time.

The world is now so connected, this global story in the 21.st century, and on the start of the third millenium, will bring some unexpected events, some expected though.

Personally, I think that China will sooner or later get rid of communism, and that will be a big boost to their society. The spread of Christianity there will also help, just as it did in Taiwan and South Korea.

China is huge, has so many people, so much engineers, and such disciplined population, which put their emphasis on community, not private.

Han Chinese population is slowly taking parts of China in which it was not a majority so far.

Do not underestimate EU, i mean Europe. EU is a market of more then 500 million people. Although it`s southern parts are not great, all in all this part of the world is still n.1 in some things.

Russia has an enormous quantity of minerals of all kind, and with so much land, they will grow with fertility too.

Canada is the country of the future. Rarely populated, rich with minerals of all kind, with very small criminal rates(comparing to USA) it is a land of the future.

Brazil and Latin America are coming, but they have too much problems with work ethics, corruption and drug smuggling. But I think that they can grow, they will not have any wars, they do not have much diseases, epidemics, their climate is warm. Reach with resources, with almost a billion people in the future, this part of the world can hope for better.

Unfortunately I do not see too much hope for Africa, but I see a hope. All wars in Africa are imported from outside. Africa will stand on its feet, and see the end of all those wars which are taring her apart. I believe in a new young generation that will change the face of Africa. Africa will still stay poor, but will find its way to end all those bloody wars. Creating of South Sudan, is a new hope that Africa can change its borders to prevent new catastrophic wars.

The problem will be a christian-muslim war, with muslim extremists firing the thing up.

Australia is a country of the future. It has only 20 million people. It`s standard of life will maybe be the best in the world.

Countries of Central Asia can see a period of prosperity, if they do not see many wars before.

China will become a dominant economic force, it is just a matter of time. With a partnership with Russia, this axis can become a dominant economic-political force in the world. On one hand Atlantic block, and on the other a Chinese-Russian one.

India has a problem of caste system which destroys its possibility to grow more. I hope that with the spread of Christianity, and relaxation of relations with Pakistan and China, India can find it`s place under the sun… As one of the world great powers. Not a super power, but a great power. With a better standard of life and human rights.

Latin America is the most interesting story for me. If they do not find a way to crush the drug mafia, they will be in great socio-economic problems.

[CWO Marc]

@Amon-Sul:

Canada is the country of the future. Rarely populated

Rarely?

[Amon-Sul]

Yes, it is the 2nd largest country in the world with only 30+ million people. Tokyo alone has 30 million.

[CWO Marc]

@Amon-Sul:

Yes, it is the 2nd largest country in the world with only 30+ million people.

I think the correct phrase is “sparsely populated”, meaning that there are few people in Canada relative to the land area.  “Rarely populated” would mean that for most of the time in any given year Canada has no population at all.  I know that a lot of Canadians spend the winter months in Florida, but the country never gets fully evacuated.