Food for thought. I just read 9 pages of this forum, gave up and jumped to the end. Forgive me if this is proposed already. (Europe designed strategy, maybe Global too.)
Germany can help Italy and maybe secure Egypt on turn 2. Here is How:
G1: use air force and subs to hit UK ships as needed. Make sure they all land in N. Italy do battles that will not cost planes. (This may hurt Germany, but you argue for Italy in Africa, here is the solution at a heavy cost.) 8 air units available I believe.
UK1: moves to Egypt maybe 1 ftr, 1 armor, 3 inf, 1 art.
I1: Italy take Alexandra with everything including the kitchen sink. This means staging air units in Tobruk if needed. See below.
G2: Fly air force over sea zones: 97, 99 ,98 ,Egypt-attack,land in Alexandra. Fight one combat round. Roll 3 Tactical fighters, 4 fighters, 1 Bomber: get 4-5 hits. Lose 2-3 planes. Decide if you want another round or if staged Italy can finish Egypt. If factory Egypt, go round 2 hit 3 times lose 1-2 planes.
UK2: maybe builds 3 units if factory there.
I2: Capture Eygpt. Build or Capture a Factory.
I3: Attack Trans-Jordan, take, move mechanized infantry or tank to Iraq non combat, build factory turn 4. Ignore Africa. Move to Persia, build factory. Help Germany in Russia, no need for a fleet.
Done. Maybe Italy doesn’t have a nice shiny fleet, but with Egypt, Trans-Jordan, Syria, Greece, South France, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Persia and Caucasus, they will collect 27IPCs +5 NO minus convoys, have 2-3 minor factories in Iraq,Persia,Eygpt and create a southern front on Russia.
Is that Broken? Maybe so, if it takes too long to realize this tactic.
How does it hurt Germany to have an air force that must then fly to N. Italy turn 3 minus 3-5 planes.
Did that make Italy viable for 30-50 IPCs of German starting units?
You decide.