This was immediately followed by a stack on Yunnan that was vulnerable to a Japanese attack, most noteably the purple fighter, which is one of the most important pieces on the board, especially against me when you know I will go for India and skip half of China (where the flying tigers could then wreak havoc). The last Indian fighter and the Chinese are on Yunnan, so I attack it.
6 AA shots missed, but the opening attack roll is average.
The Chinese defense roll was almost 2 under, so the dice are punishing what I think was a mistake.
The average expected losses for Japan was to lose 10 units, of which 1 would be a fighter to AA fire. The Japanese only had 7 ground units, so to finish off the stack, would lose about 3 fighters and not be able to take Yunnan, or lose 4 fighters and take.
This does not seem to be a terrible result for the Allies, but the attacker has the option to retreat each round, so this was a volatile battle.
The dice did favor me, and if you got lucky on the AA, well, it might have actually been good for you. Anyway, big risk, and the dice punished it. It can definitely be argued that it was a good risk to take against a more experienced player.
But it was a very big risk, especially with attacker option to retreat, and if you look at the map after J4, the Allies in China and India have no air and are very weak…