Elche +10 v Gamerman01 BM4

[elche]

Only 1 hit and I will lose

[gamerman01]

Unbelievable. Your 2’s hit 4/5

[gamerman01]

Just like that in 1 round my odds are down to 10%. Well, there is no stopping me next round!

[gamerman01]

Wow.

I can’t retreat the artillery, so I go another round but you have 25% to annihilate the attacking force including all 3 of my bombers that have terrorized you all game.
And now I score 3/3!

But will you hit in defense???

[gamerman01]

This is SO dramatic.

You miss all 4

So I go again - my artillery can’t retreat! And now my odds are right back to 90%. This is the craziest battle I’ve seen in a long time

[gamerman01]

Oh wow, the end did not disappoint. I got my 2 hits, but you hit 2/2 which means I lose the 3rd bomber and conquer with one armored unit

[gamerman01]

This is a battle where it would have been really fun to roll dice against each other by video

[gamerman01]

<groan> you hit 3/3 in Z49… Doesn’t matter now…

[elche]

Yes, thanks for that but if you conquer- I have no idea if I can conquer back

[gamerman01]

It is impossible to conquer back, but you have a 2% chance on India

[gamerman01]

Noncombat phase, so far

J16 NCM.tsvg

[gamerman01]

No, I see a way to make India 0%

[gamerman01]

J16.tsvg

[gamerman01]

I’m not saying you have to quit - it is possible to take India back if you get a 1/200 chance result.
But I will give you tips from this game now since you said you would like them

[gamerman01]

You also have a chance to take Berlin UK16 and stay alive, but that is also a very small chance. But it is not impossible.

[gamerman01]

I played a very strong game against you, but of course far from perfect.

As the more experienced player, here are my observations:

UK3 attack on FIC,
UK has 1 INF, 1 ART, 2 FTR, TAC
vs.
3 INF, AA, FTR

This subjects all India’s 3 fighters to AA fire
The overall chance on the battle is 67%, hit and run 1 round is most likely that each side loses 2 ground units, and the 3 Indian air are subject to AA fire. The Chinese have a strong stack in Yunnan, so this attack weakens Japanese ground forces, however, the UK units could have defended Yunnan and even better protected it.

The dice were punishing, 1 fighter down to AA, and even both sides had a strong first round roll. The above average defense roll with an extra hit took out the Indian tac, and now India is down to 1 fighter from 3 - this was very painful for you in subsequent rounds. The daring attack could have paid off with luck, but it was even more likely to be very painful. The Japanese lose 3 ground units from a little Indian luck, but India is punished and the Allies lose extremely important pieces in one of the most vulnerable points on the map

[gamerman01]

This was immediately followed by a stack on Yunnan that was vulnerable to a Japanese attack, most noteably the purple fighter, which is one of the most important pieces on the board, especially against me when you know I will go for India and skip half of China (where the flying tigers could then wreak havoc). The last Indian fighter and the Chinese are on Yunnan, so I attack it.
6 AA shots missed, but the opening attack roll is average.
The Chinese defense roll was almost 2 under, so the dice are punishing what I think was a mistake.

The average expected losses for Japan was to lose 10 units, of which 1 would be a fighter to AA fire. The Japanese only had 7 ground units, so to finish off the stack, would lose about 3 fighters and not be able to take Yunnan, or lose 4 fighters and take.

This does not seem to be a terrible result for the Allies, but the attacker has the option to retreat each round, so this was a volatile battle.

The dice did favor me, and if you got lucky on the AA, well, it might have actually been good for you. Anyway, big risk, and the dice punished it. It can definitely be argued that it was a good risk to take against a more experienced player.
But it was a very big risk, especially with attacker option to retreat, and if you look at the map after J4, the Allies in China and India have no air and are very weak…

[elche]

Yes, you are right and its 1 reason I lost India - and I lost India in many games. i have to improve that and my play with Anzac. You show in one of our ganes how to play strong with them.

[gamerman01]

But, after J4 you do have the American fleet at the Carolines, which is excellent for your Allies

[gamerman01]

I do realize that I may not know your reasoning behind some decisions, and that doesn’t mean you were necessarily wrong. Like the defense at Yunnan, could relieve considerable pressure on America if I lose quite a few planes.