@Cmdr:
3 Infantry, Artillery, 4 Fighters, Cruiser vs 5 Infantry, Artillery, AA Gun in Karelia
3 Infantry, 2 Armor vs 3 Infantry in Baltic States
2 Infantry, Artillery, 2 Armor vs 2 Infantry in E. Poland
2 Infantry, Artillery, 2 Armor vs 2 Infantry in Ukraine
Sure, Karelia is risky, but Russia is reeling if it goes decently (Baltic States, E. Poland and Ukraine should be hands down wins for you with probably one infantry lost in each and Russia unable to liberate any of them.)
If you do Egypt, like I do, 2 Infantry, Artillery, 2 Armor (not even good odds, but good enough to do serious damage to England.)
SZ 6 would be Submarine vs Destroyer (50/50)
SZ 12 would be 2 Submarines, Bomber vs Cruiser, Destroyer (good odds, since he risks Sneak Shot if he sinks the destroyer first!)
Indeed Karelia is risky, but let’s say you take here with 1 ground unit. On R1 Russia must (and will) counter with 4 inf and 1 arm. Also Russia can counter Ukraine with 5 inf, 1 rtl against 1 rtl, 2 arm (or maybe 1 inf, 1 rtl, 2 arm). This could end up with both sides losing all, but then how much does Germany have after R1 on the Eastern Front? Only troops in the Baltic + Eastern Poland. That’s about 3 inf, 1 rtl, 4 arm. I don’t see how you would get a breakthrough with that on G2, which leaves you on G2 with not much choice except consolidating the front and waiting for reinforcements…
So you took all that risk in Karelia, and let’s not forget Egypt either which is a big gamble IMHO, but how much did you really gain…
Meanwhile, the UK has a fleet remaining of 1 BB, 1 DD, 2 trns + her buy of UK1…
Now that I think of it, you could even opt to have UK liberate Karelia, which leaves Russia the opportunity to attack Ukraine even harder.