@bob-loblaw
Re: āussr will have 2 aa guns, 3 tanks, 2 art, 5 inf normally in west russia (sometimes 6 or 4 inf)ā, āattack Baltic states, belorussia, and West Russiaā, āussr Baltic opener . . . two of them have >90% chance of victory (3 inf, 1 tank, 1 fighter vs 3 inf) and (8 inf, 3 tanks, 2 artillery vs 3 inf 1 art 1 tank).ā
. . . and 1 inf 1 art 1 fig vs 1 inf 1 tank at Baltic States, I assume.
Superficially, the numbers seem to check out. But take a good hard look at the numbers, and not just the net IPC changes, but the resulting positions, counters, and followups remembering dice variance.
Saying youāll have 5 infantry at West Russia? Reasonable, but not something to depend on. Sometimes 6? If you get lucky. Sometimes 4? Perhaps, but also you might see 3, 2, or less.
And what happens in case of cascade failure? Suppose you do a bit badly at West Russia. Youāre prepared for that? But suppose you also do badly at Belorussia. Now Germany has more to counter with, and thereās nothing USSR can do about it once the triple has been committed to.
Nothing can counter super bad dice, but a Ukr/W Rus open is slightly less vulnerable.
"I doubt a smart player would . . . "
You really think Germany would hesitate to destroy both USSRās AA guns, three tanks, and two artillery, and cut off UK fighters flying from London to West Russia, along with a possible G1 tank build for quick early pressure and possibly even a J1 Manchuria IC to pump tanks on the timing - along with G2 starting with control of Karelia?
āa retreat after round 1ā
Instead of assuming Germany stupidly overcommits tanks and loses them to an easy counter that canāt be punished, or assuming Germany needlessly exposes air to AA guns, how about assuming Germany correctly calculates the balance of ground and air that has about a 85%+ probability to capture West Russia and destroy all USSRās valuable ground units? Not overkill, not underkill, but just about right, and if the attack on West Russia isnāt favorable then of course Germany doesnāt hit that and goes to Caucasus - but again, Germany doesnāt overcommit.
Youāre assuming Germany does a 1-turn attack into West Russia then retreats after exposing German air to AA fire, without Germany even attempting to blow up USSRās valuable tanks. What was it you were just saying about smart players? So it wonāt just be a 1-turn attack, right?
āso you prefer Germany can put 5 tanks and 9 inf in Kareliaā
Letās not get sidetracked. Thereās a lot that could be said about R1, G1, builds, attacks, counters, contingencies, percentages - but suffice to say I donāt say Ukr/W Rus is SAFE (in fact, I donāt think it IS, and thatās one of the reasons I push for preplaced bid which the developers wonāt do but eh whatever).
But I do think Ukr / W Rus open has better outcomes than a triple open.
As to āyou prefer Germany can put 5 tanks and 9 inf in Kareliaā, do you think thereās a perfect answer? What would that be?
You do R1 tank build and retreat tanks from Ukraine for a heavy R1 counter to Karelia? Even then, how do you answer G1 tanks mobilized on Berlin? I donāt say G1 super heavy tank build, but just say Germany sticks two tanks on Berlin. Pretty good odds that means G2 captures and secures Karelia, especially if Japanese fighters are in range, which they may well be. But then you do an attack/retreat into Karelia to strain German logistics? Very well, then on G1 Germany sees USSR lined up with that mighty counter and instead just doesnāt do a heavy push to Karelia, then Germany captures and holds Karelia on G2.
Plainly, Iām saying if the Axis player is competent, Allies wonāt have easy answers. Wonāt matter if itās USSR triple open or Ukr/West Russia, it wonāt be easy. If it were, wouldnāt be much of a game.
If you want to go into R1 W Rus/Ukr open and the Karelia game, letās have that discussion, but thatās a thread of itself.
āmed fleet . . . allows uk fleet in India to . . . nearly impossible to take Egypt in (g2)ā
I believe this is another topic better covered in another thread.
But I will say, before starting another thread, think on it a moment. If Germanyās about to smash the **** out of Europe, it doesnāt need to push in Africa, and thereās a decent chance something like that gets lined up after a USSR triple open. Also, youāre not considering what happens if Germany lands a chunk of air in Africa, and of course why would you because you probably donāt see it much. And maybe youāll pull the āUK builds an Atlantic fleet if Germany puts fighters in Africaā and Iāll shrug and say I donāt care because if UK dropped a carrier and a fighter Iāll reposition air on G2 (even better if I have the bomber) and blow up UKās fleet at low cost to German air if they dare to drop, and if they stand off then Iāll just continue shenanigans in Europe. Then you can come back and say something else and Iāll say something else and thatās how it goes. But on balance, the question is what is gained and what is lost?
ānot destroying the fighter in egypt . . . sz 37ā
You want to roll the dice on UK1 vs Japanās East Indies fleet, go for it. I think itās a bad deal. Which is another thread.
Yes yes, you have ideas and you wonāt be dissuaded, and thatās fine. Either youāll try it over and over and fail when you come up against decent competition and youāll change your mind, or youāll try it against decent competition and win and maybe do a writeup and Iāll change my mind. But either way weāre not there right now.
But before you get into future writeups:
I donāt worry too much about IPC swings. I tend to think about things in terms of unit counts, positions opening up, and other less-tangibles. Yes, keeping an eye on IPC changes is important, but itās definitely not the only thing to keep an eye on by far.
Donāt just think about 95% or whatever. Think about the resulting position. Think about the opportunity costs. Think about dice swings. Cascade failure. Concentration of force versus spreading out.
It is not safe to assume an opponent will not attack because of negative IPC expectation. No, really.
http://calc.axisandallies.org/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=3&aArt=&aArm=1&aFig=1&aBom=&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=&aCru=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=3&dArt=&dArm=&dFig=&dBom=&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=&dCru=&dCar=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Sub-SSub-Des-Fig-JFig-Cru-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat-Tra&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Bom-HBom-Sub-SSub-Des-Car-Cru-Fig-JFig-dBat-Tra&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=AA1942&territory=&round=1&pbem=
At Belorussia you look at 3 inf 1 tank 1 fighter vs 3 inf, see 95% win, looks super good, right? But actually itās not that hot, as the above link and some thinking shows.
4.58% no attackers survive (disaster)
5.56% attacking fighter survives (lost 15 IPCs of units for 9 IPCs of units and didnāt gain any income from capturing territory. Unless you want to lose the fighter, which is amazesauce for Germany so I assume you donāt do that.)
(Calculation aids state 5% loss. But there are different degrees of loss; here thereās at least a 10% of a strictly unfavorable outcome. Thatās one thing players using aids often may miss.)
15.1% attacking tank and fighter survive. Which is where the situation becomes barely tolerable; at least you capture the territory and trade off 9 IPCs of attackers for 9 IPCs of defenders. But the tank is lost on the counter.
But what happens after the German counter? Pretty good chance that 6 IPC tank dies in exchange for perhaps a German infantry. Letās say the tank has 2/3 chance to destroy a 3 IPC infantry (I know tanks hit 1/2 the time, but letās just use 2/3 for Reasons), so USSR expects to gain 2 IPC from possibly destroying a German infantry, 2 IPC from the territory, meaning net gain 4 IPC in exchange for a 6 IPC tank.
Yes, USSR does have positional considerations that offset the 2 IPC difference, but the positional pressure isnāt all that great. Germany has much better options when USSR is spread thin, and if as already mentioned thereās some level of cascade failure then USSR will be in big trouble.
Now letās look at West Russia.
http://calc.axisandallies.org/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=8&aArt=2&aArm=3&aFig=&aBom=&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=&aCru=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=3&dArt=1&dArm=1&dFig=&dBom=&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=&dCru=&dCar=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Sub-SSub-Des-Fig-JFig-Cru-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat-Tra&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Bom-HBom-Sub-SSub-Des-Car-Cru-Fig-JFig-dBat-Tra&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=AA1942&territory=&round=1&pbem=
Letās say 20.22% for 4 inf 2 art 3 tank 2 AA or less. Reasonably likely, and Iāll use 4 inf 2 art 3 tank 2 AA as the baseline. Germanyās counter is up to 3 inf 1 art 3 tank 4 fighter 1 bomber, without giving up attacking the UK battleship/destroyer.
https://aacalc.freezingblue.com/?rules=1942&battleType=land&roundCount=all&attInfantry=3&attArtillery=1&attTank=3&attFighter=4&attBomber=1&defInfantry=4&defArtillery=2&defTank=3&defAAGun=2
But also G1 capture of West Russia prevents Allied fighters from landing on, keeping it in play.
If youāre thinking ānah, Germany needs to maintain its air force to threaten Atlantic shippingā - as Iāve written in other threads, I use Japanese air for that when going anti-KGF. Germany still does well to have some air, the more the better, but smashing all USSRās tanks and preventing fortification of West Russia? Maybe thatās only 20% to have favorable odds of all that following a USSR triple open as was described, but thatās still more than the odds Germany has against a Ukr/W Rus open.
