dosn’t mean there can’t be a shift in the favor of one of our leaders (also dosn’t mean it can’t shift back). unless it turns to a big lead (10%ish) or over 80% counted with the lead as is now it’s still ethers race. not to be hopfull or down play the lead, i’m just stating that things can shift still.
I am prepared to call the candidates for the 2008 Presidential Election…
Democrat: Clinton/Richardson
Republican: McCain/Huckabee
Hmmmm, I only agree with you on the McCain call. For one, it’s WAY too early to call the Democrat race for Hillary. For another, I just don’t see McCain running with Hickabee, errrr, I mean Huckabee. Joe Lieberman, maybe, or perhaps Rudy, but no way he taps Huckabee. What does that get him? Arkansas???
McCain has an issue with gaining support from the Religious Right… the hard core base of the Republican Party. A Baptist Minister for a VP helps to solve that problem. Also, with Huckabee as a Fair Tax supporter, it helps to reduce the “vote bleed” from any Libertarian candidate. Not a huge factor, but as we have seen in several recent elections even a small 3rd party vote can play havoc with the national results.
As for Richardson with Hillary, that broadens her appeal. She has “roots” in Arkansas and New York. Richardson in the Southwest. Richardson polls very well among Latino voters, Hillary polls well with Caucasians. And it is not like the Black vote is going to vote for McCain… the Democrats can again take that for granted.
So, as always, it comes down to a fight for the middle. McCain is strong among moderates of BOTH parties, but lacks the ability to energize the Republican Base. Hillary, by her own actions, is seen as a New England elitist and needs that diversity from another part of the nation to help push her over the top. Richardson also has strong support among the typical McCain voter, and would help Hillary actually take some “safe” McCain votes away.
Clinton/Obama will NOT happen. Hillary destroys her enemies, she does not make them into Vice Presidents. Guiliani has not shown anything that would make him be a positive choice for VP. His BEST showing was 4th. And McCain will NOT choose Mitt for a VP. Too much bad blood there. That leaves Huckabee… to unite the party (McCain’s 30 something percent and Huckabee’s teens for a functional majority)
Are you already counting out Obama as the potential nominee after that @ss kicking her administered to her in SC? I think he’s got a real chance next Tuesday, personally. Plus, I think at least half the members of her party must cringe at the thought of her as the nominee.
As for Huck, he’s too much of a loose cannon to be of any help to McCain. McCain has many options for a “Conservative” running mate – Orrin Hatch and Lindsay Graham are two names that readily come to mind. It’s not like there’s a shortage of conservatives in the GOP. Not to mention, Huck has been VERY weak in the recent contests, which begs the question how much support he will really bring.
thats a good prediction for the tickets.
Yes, I AM counting Obama out despite South Carolina.
Remember, Jesse Jackson won South Carolina TWICE but was NEVER a serious candidate for the nomination.
Obama is a flash in the pan. If he had done a bit better in Florida I MIGHT give him more credence as a potential threat to Hillary.
However… Florida’s Delegates WILL be seated at the DNC, and Hillary just lept up to a 300 to 50 delegate lead of Obama. And Obama will lose the majority of the races on Super Tuesday… the VAST majority…
I would also remind you folks that I have predicted, almost with pin-point accuracy (I over-estimated Huckabee in Florida… failed to take into consideration the “vote for a winner” element that would reduce Huckabee’s vote total) the past several races… and the manner in which the campaigns would be waged.
News Flash: Clinton wins the Democratic Nomination on 5 FEB
News Flash: Romney continues to beat up on the Republican Nominee McCain, refusing to withdraw from the race, weakening the Republican Candidate going into the November elections.
Well, McCain has been counted out before. I wouldn’t be too quick to wager on his chances in November. All Romney can do now is act as the spoiler. Let’s hope he has something better to do with his millions than buying automated phone calls slandering the eventual Republican nominee.
And I stand by my statement about Huckabee – no WAY is he the VP nominee.
We will see when the RNC rolls around…
You have my prediction though…
I still don’t think Obama or Romney are out of it. Though, I am only quasi-surprised with McCain’s showing. (Let’s remember the number of elderly New Yorkers who live in Florida, they’re old so actually go vote and they’re liberal, so they’ll vote liberal (aka McCain.))
Also, remember only about 30% of the people registered to vote in Florida actually voted. I’d bet a lot that almost all the republican voters were retired New Yorkers who voted for McCain.
As for Hillary, uhm, duh? She’s also from New York. It’s state loyalty! You wouldn’t expect Texas to vote against Bush anymore then you’d expect retired New Yorkers to vote against Hillary.
Let’s see Super Tuesday. It’s only a week away and Illinois has 4 times as many delegates to award as Florida, and we’re but one lonely state going on Super Tuesday.
@Cmdr:
Campaign Finance Reform
No Child Left Behind
Minimum Wage Increases
Colin Powell
Scooter Libby
Karl Rove
Denny Hastert
Albert Gonzalez
etcLike those pieces of liberal legislation, and unwarranted attacks on persons to get them to retire instead of doing their job.
Youre kidding right? Scooter Libby was part of the democratic agenda? Prosecuted by a Republican, convicted by a jury, commuted by Bush. Was duke cunningham also part of the democratic agenda? Jack abramof? Larry “wide stance” Craig? Tom “the hamper” Delay? Was Nixon also part of the Dem agenda? i’m not sympatheitc to the Dems, but this is pretty lame.
And what on Earth do Karl Rove and colin Powel have to do with the demoicratic agenda? Alberto gonzales was caught lying so many times he was practically forced out of office.
This is what the dems want: socialized medicine, retreat in iraq, higher taxes, amnesty, and repeal of the Patriot Act. Thats essentially their core platform. The list you gave was nonsnse. Bush has been a failure, but its his veto pen and the republican margin in the senate has stopped the dems cold. they made all these promises to get elected in 06 and one has come to pass: a meaningless minimum wage hike.
If they capture the presidency and keep congress, their agenda (the real agenda, not the “unwarranted personal attacks”) will finally be realized.
On the Republican side, Illinois has 70 delegates http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/IL-R.phtml#0205
Florida normally has 114 (cut in half this year to 57).
Not exactly “four times more”.
I don’t think McCain Needs Huckabee for a running mate, he needs him to stay in the race past tuesday though, because he draws more from Romney than McCain. If the evangelicals are not happy with McCain what are they going to do? Vote for Hilary? I don’t think so.
He obviously doesn’t need Guliani, he starts campaining for McCain today. That said, I wonder about that. You don’t get anything for free in Politics. What is Guliani getting for his support of McCain? I think With Guliani’s support McCain takes California and New York with ease.
I think Romney is done unless he can pull a rabbit out of his hat.
As for democrats, I don’t know but I am interested to see who Edwards supports now that he is out. Even if he doesn’t declare for one of the others, I wonder which way his supporters go? I have a hard time getting into the mind of that part of the political spectrum…
the talk of Mitt being out is why i think having so many primaries before all the rest is stupid. if we base it on this one state, the Florida has just accounted for 90% of the nations population in votes for the Republican nomination.
people said before it was to weed the weaker canidents out as it has, but now people are turnning it into it’s all over; with what only 9 or 10 states done, and of those only 1 being a significuntlly large state. sorry if the system is ment to run like that it’s broken. no state should be the tell all or so powerfull this early that it knocks the guy who was the front runner in delagates out of the race.
it is still ether man’s game, even Huck still has a chance at the bid IMO based on how much is left to gain and how much he has now. Ron Paul is the only one i think is realy out at this point and it’s not because he hasn’t won a state, but because his count is so low and he hasn’t been able to poll well. though that dosn’t mean he can’t pull out a win, i just find it unlikelly.
now after Tuesday if we have a big gap, then thats diffrent, but untell then there is no reason to count any one out untell they pull them selfs out.
Now that Edwards is out they will vote for Obama mostly perhaps its an agreement to throw support behind Obama so he can be his running mate… its possible given the departure only a week before the huge Feb 5th primary’s
I think it worth mentioning that 67% of registered republicans and independents, who voted in Florida, voted AGAINST McCain.
This after the McCain robo-calls and a strong turn out of Retired New Yorkers voting in the Republican Primary (because there were no delegates to award for the Democrat Primary in Florida, so why bother?)
However, with Guilliani endorsing McCain, he might start to have a real chance on Tuesday. If Huckabee would make a deal with Romney to run as his VP and Endorse him, McCain would get shot out of the water faster then a row boat fighting an Aircraft Carrier and all it’s fighters.
Furthermore, look who has endorsed McCain. We have the country-club Republicans from the OLD Nixon days. They are basically second tier democrats. They’re not radical enough to be full fledge democrats, so they call themselves republicans.
Basically, McCain is a “Compassionate Conservative.” Who else ran as a compassionate conservative?!? Yea, that’s right, President Bush! So if you don’t like Bush, you won’t like McCain!
the talk of Mitt being out is why i think having so many primaries before all the rest is stupid. if we base it on this one state, the Florida has just accounted for 90% of the nations population in votes for the Republican nomination.
people said before it was to weed the weaker canidents out as it has, but now people are turnning it into it’s all over; with what only 9 or 10 states done, and of those only 1 being a significuntlly large state. sorry if the system is ment to run like that it’s broken. no state should be the tell all or so powerfull this early that it knocks the guy who was the front runner in delagates out of the race.
it is still ether man’s game, even Huck still has a chance at the bid IMO based on how much is left to gain and how much he has now. Ron Paul is the only one i think is realy out at this point and it’s not because he hasn’t won a state, but because his count is so low and he hasn’t been able to poll well. though that dosn’t mean he can’t pull out a win, i just find it unlikelly.
now after Tuesday if we have a big gap, then thats diffrent, but untell then there is no reason to count any one out untell they pull them selfs out.
Florida or the other primaries isn’t the reason I say Romney is out, I think the Guliany support is big though. I also thing Hukabees steadfastness hurts Romney.
@Cmdr:
Basically, McCain is a “Compassionate Conservative.” Who else ran as a compassionate conservative?!? Yea, that’s right, President Bush! So if you don’t like Bush, you won’t like McCain!
Prepare to be appalled, I still like Bush and don’t regret voting for him. Twice. I just one of the few that are not afraid to admit it…
I regret all the liberal legislation he signed into law, all the legislation he let the liberals write without so much as conservative over sight, and signed into law because it was garbage legislation that was very harmful to this country and, because he allowed it to happen, the democrats have successfully spun it as “republican legislation” while taking credit for all the successful legislation that slipped through despite President Bush allowing the minority party to run the nation.
If that’s what Compassionate Conservatism is, then I want Cruel Conservatism back.
The answer to all of the problems in this country is very simple: Leave it to the states. The Feds should only go in when the states are harming the people (and yes, you MUST prove there was harm done) or when the state is over whelmed from a natural disaster and needs the help of the other 49 countries in this alliance by pooling resources.
That’s right. You saw it correctly. This is an alliance of 50 countries working together under one banner to present a united front to the world. This is not one nation with 50 subservient provinces.
And, since we are an alliance of 50 countries, each country should be responsible for any socialist/communist program it wants to institute and the magnitude of such institutions. If Indiana decided it wanted to let the homeless starve to death with no support, then that’s Indiana’s right. If Illinois decided to write a check to each homeless person for $100,000 that’s their right. If Wisconsin decides that they will just give food stamps to prevent starvation, that’s their right.
However, as with any alliance, there are basic guidelines as to what is appropriate. We, in this alliance, call that agreement the Constitution of the united States of america. No, I did not miss the capitalizations. This is an agreement between the STATES who stand united on the continent of North America. It is the STATES, not the federation. It is not the United Federation of America.
As soon as we get a conservative that holds that stance, again, we’ll see the largest landslide victories since Reagan, maybe even greater if he’s more polarized then Reagan was. Until then, we’ll see 50/50 turn outs because people cannot decide to vote for the greater or lesser evil presented to them.
Furthermore, I am getting sick of this limited war crud. If we go to war, we need to go to total war. No war against a piddly little has been nation like Iraq should take this long. Send in the USAF, bomb everything flat. Not a single timber should survive without bomb damage on it. Then send in the USMC to kill anything left alive and afterwards, send in the US Army to clean up. (You can stop when the enemy tenders complete, unconditional surrender.)
Just one war fought like that and we could end all future wars for the next 50 years. (About the time it takes for people to forget how America fights a war.)
Limited warfare is what gave us Vietnam and Korea and Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom.
BTW, the idea is to do such damage that no one will want to make war on us. Not to hurt people. If you can avert future wars by maximizing damage in one war, and the total net loss of life and property is LESS then if you were to fight limited warfare, then you are actually more ethical by doing the total war in place of the dozens of limited wars.
As for taxes, the best plan is to use the exact same income tax system of George Washington, John Adams, Andrew Jackson, James Monroe and Thomas Jefferson. When you find out how much they charged for income taxes, we can talk more on the situation.
You want to fix the schools? Get the government money out of it. Let the states compete amongst each other for the best and brightest. It’ll be hard for a while, but it’ll sort itself out.
Immigration is about the ONLY issue being debated that the feds SHOULD be involved in. And it’s simple to fix too. If you want to immigrate, pass a Constitution test, pass a language competency exam (written AND oral) and show that you have a marketable skill. IF you make it past those three things, you can get citizenship. If not, then you should be booted out.
Give us your poor, your tired, your huddled masses longing to be free…
It does not say give us your lazy, your uneducated, your leeches on the tit of society; longing to be supported by hard working citizens and immigrants who conform to American culture.
Okay, I’ve been ranting. But common. Romney’s the closest thing we got to a conservative and he’s not all that conservative! McCain’s getting a lot of independents and social liberals who are ashamed to vote Black or Woman or even to call themselves liberal. But we have no REAL conservatives out there!
This is what the dems want: socialized medicine, retreat in iraq, higher taxes, amnesty, and repeal of the Patriot Act. Thats essentially their core platform. The list you gave was nonsnse. Bush has been a failure, but its his veto pen and the republican margin in the senate has stopped the dems cold. they made all these promises to get elected in 06 and one has come to pass: a meaningless minimum wage hike.
you forgot, legalized gay marriage, forcing more smut onto everyone, using pop culture and tv and movies as a club to hit peoples brains, abortion as a form of birth control, bending to eu legistation(see clinton quotes and ginsburg!), play the big panzy to the world so they sniff like us again sniff
the talk of Mitt being out is why i think having so many primaries before all the rest is stupid. if we base it on this one state, the Florida has just accounted for 90% of the nations population in votes for the Republican nomination.
people said before it was to weed the weaker canidents out as it has, but now people are turnning it into it’s all over; with what only 9 or 10 states done, and of those only 1 being a significuntlly large state. sorry if the system is ment to run like that it’s broken. no state should be the tell all or so powerfull this early that it knocks the guy who was the front runner in delagates out of the race.
its done b/c of this. iowa is a red state teetering on blue. so its a good indicator of votes for moderates on the democratic and republican sides, but more republican w/ religion. new hamshire has moderates in both, but is more liberal, and not so much to do with religion. south carolina is the southern state throw in so people can get big doses of religion and how that mixes. and you get a big black voting %
florida was mixed in to get the latino aspects into the strategies. every state plays its part.
I think it worth mentioning that 67% of registered republicans and independents, who voted in Florida, voted AGAINST McCain
indenpendent couldn’t vote in florida. they all came from the republican party. FYI.
