Problems with this analysis:
Mech infantry are not to be considered, the tank argument refers to problems since AAR and AA50 and AA42 as well as original AAE.
Secondly, Germany out produces Russia typically in games and also starts with more material in range of her vitals.
Thirdly, Nobody is saying “just buy tanks”, rather the idea is to buy mostly tanks, backed up with infantry as soakers. Typically this might be twice as many tanks as infantry.
Fourth, These are hit and run tactics with the purpose of killing defenders and exchanging only attacking infantry ( fodder). Attacker then backs out when they got the better in the exchange.
Fifth, the constant weakening of chosen points and adding the increasing difference in material produced and the inability for Russia to take back lost areas ( because battle sims show horrible results of infantry stacks attacking tanks and a few infantry) shows this gradual loss of position.
Six, the mobility of tanks allows them to pick the battle they want to fight and the infantry cant always get into the position to fight back because of their one space movement.
The result of this is the typical games in AAR, AAE, AA42, and AA50 where Japan drives tanks and Germany does the same. The axis can’t win by defeating Russia with all infantry buys because infantry attacking is producing terrible results. If Russia just buys infantry it will still lose. It needs other units. Germany and japan cannot win against Russia unless they mostly buy tanks.
All your information does not take into account either hit and run, greater material advantage, or ability to choose where to attack and not be able to defend every point or be able to counter because the tanks reached another weak point.
This is why for example even with 3-2-2-5 tanks in AAE, Russia is basically doomed, and tanks just run to take out weak points and Russia cant reach the lost area with too much.
AAE40 has essentially the same configuration as AAE, and this will favor Germany in mostly tank buys. Russia cant move her infantry in enough strength to fight the tanks and Germany will hit and run with impunity at selected areas and use Infantry as soakers so they they remain whole.