Should Germany take Egypt first turn?

@Imperious:

The Soviets cant survive in 41 w/o help and secondly, thats an optional rule and we are not using them for this example.

I know the Soviets can’t survive without help. If you take away one of their NO’s for a couple critical early turns their situation doesn’t get any better even if the Italian fleet gets sunk.

And we don’t have to include NO’s, but without them the Axis is severly hampered. The Axis relies heavily on NO’s early in the game. Much more so than the Allies do. Just a rough calculation says that the Axis earns about 25-40 IPC’s from NO’s and the Allies about 10-20 in the first few rounds. If you didn’t play with NO’s in 41’, then the Axis would probably need a bid like the Commander suggested.

And that can easily be overcome by buying 2 bombers on UK1 and a factory in India, then on UK2 buy 3 bombers and place them in India, then on UK3 you got 5 bombers and even more fighters and nothing can be done. You see their is a million ways to kill the Italian fleet if its the determination of the British player to do this. Italy can do anything about it.

If Japan sees that the UK built an IC in India and 2 bombers in the UK on UK1, they would be able to set themselves up on J2 for a massive strike on India on J3. 3 inf, 1 art, 3 bmb isn’t a very strong defensive position and I would definitely send fighters against the AA with the prospect of taking out 3 bombers.

I’m not going to try to calculate how much Japanese hardware can hit India on J3 because it would vary based on casualties taken in the first 2 turns, but it likely includes an equal or better amount of ground units; probably 1 BB, 1 CA; and a lot of fighters.

Plus UK can bomb Italy and deprive its carrier build…

problem overcome.

If I see that the UK builds bombers anyway even after I attack Egypt on G1, then I know that the UK will be unable to mount an attack on the fleet until UK3 at the earliest, so I can just save my first turn income which would amout to a total of at least 21 IPC’s which is enough to build the CV even with maximum damage to the IC.

If the UK doesn’t SBR Italy, I can just build the CV and fighter at the same time on I2.

And if the UK does SBR Italy on UK2, not only are they exposing their bombers to AA fire risking a weaker attack on the fleet, but I can still build the CV and put 1 fighter on it and then Germany can provide the second fighter before the UK moves in for it’s attack.

ok so i move the tank(s) over and it still can reach Egypt in one turn.

problem overcome.

Yes, but those armored unit in Algeria can’t hit Trans-Jordan which is where the UK units would be if Germany doesn’t attack Egypt on G1.

And there is one more thing you have to take into consideration. If you use the bomber against the UK BB in sz2, it can’t reach Egypt or Trans-Jordan for an attack on G2. And if you use the bomber against the sz12 units then you have to send both sz7 SS with the Norway fighter against the sz2 BB to make sure it sinks, and that puts you at risk of losing a fighter in sz12 against the UK CA, DD.

Germany simply does not have enough units to accomplish all of it’s G1 tasks. Either you have to prioritize and let some Allied units survive or you can spread yourself thin in a few battles and risk heavier than expected casualties. And if you set Germany up to attack Egypt or T-J on G2 you will be taking some German aircraft away from Russia for 2 maybe 3 turns and that only helps the Russians stabilize their front. I, myself, prefer to have the German bomber hit Egypt on G1 and then leave Africa solely to the Italians after that.

I think the Norway fighter for SZ 12 is not needed 505.  2 Submarines and a bomber should be more than capable of sinking SZ 12.  Remember, if the defender elects to lose the destroyer first round, you have a shot at sinking the cruiser without loss in the second round!

(For this reason, in face to face games, I always fire attacker, ask for defender casualties then left defender fire.)

@Cmdr:

I think the Norway fighter for SZ 12 is not needed 505.  2 Submarines and a bomber should be more than capable of sinking SZ 12.  Remember, if the defender elects to lose the destroyer first round, you have a shot at sinking the cruiser without loss in the second round!

(For this reason, in face to face games, I always fire attacker, ask for defender casualties then left defender fire.)

Funny you should say that. In my game with TC, he attacked sz12 with 1 bmb, 1 fig, 2 SS and lost everything for nothing. I had to reimburse him for the bomber and trade him the CA, DD for the 2 SS, 1 fig or else the game would have been over because he had just lost 1/3 of the German air force and I was positioned to hit the Italian fleet with the UK. Good thing for him it wasn’t a league game.  :-D

Actually what I was saying was that if IL wanted to position maximum German aircraft for a G2 attack on T-J, then he would have to let the sz2 BB live or risk spreading himself too thin, but I’m beginning to notice that a lot of people are not even going after the UK BB anyway so it might be a moot point.

Granted, at times the dice can be finiky.  For me, the problem is Baltic States.  I can attack with Everything and I mean EVERYTHING Germany has to bear and Russia will still have 1 Infantry left after all the Germans are destroyed.

I wouldn’t plan on that being the result, but it will be!

in 41 you attack Baltic with 4 infantry 1 art and 1 tank vs. 3 inf

4 tanks and inf on east Poland vs. 2 infantry

and

2 inf, 1 tank, 1 art vs. Ukraine vs. 2 infantry

Italy shadows the Ukraine force with 1 tank and 1 inf  and fighter in black sea. They build a destroyer to protect from UK bomber, but if uk builds bombers, they save or buy 2 tanks or 1 fighter.

Normally, I attack Baltic States with 3 Infantry, 2 Armor.  This SHOULD result in taking it with 1 or 2 infantry and 2 armor.  So far, I’ve lost Baltic States with Russia holding it with 1 infantry or more EVERY BLASTED GAME (or so it feels) after completely annihilating the Germans!

well if you follow my attack plan and also land a tank and infantry in NCM and just send out the sub to kill the UK DD, then it will hold. no matter what in 1941

Should Germany take Egypt first turn?

Yes, of course!
Without an attack of the german africa-korps, the italians will never be able to take Cairo - at least not in Round 1.
Additionaly, you place your transport in a good spot for further attacks in russia or africa should it survive. There is a good chance of destroying all british forces in Egypt and even the possibility of conquering it. Furthermore it opens up opportunities for Italy in africa - even though italian assistance may be better applied in russia.

Should germany commit planes in Egypt?
No! germanys 1st turn is the most important turn of the whole game. Commiting the german bomber just to destroy one plane is a misplacement of forces. The german airforce should IMHO be commited to destroy the royal navy.

1. Send 1 submarine, 1 fighter, one bomber to seazone 2 to sink the Hood and its transport
2. Send 1 submarine, 2 fighters to seazone 12 to sink 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer
3. Send 1 submarine, 1 fighter to seazone 6 to sink 1 destroyer

The germans should build an aircraft carrier. With these attacks, the british player has to rebuild the navy from space one without the royal air force being able to sink the german fleet.

(Side note - building a destroyer and subs might also repel the royal air force bringing losses to the RAF and the subs diving after losing the surface ships. Building a battleship and a submarine is extremely expensive. I still propose building the carrier as it will allow the transport to survive.)

British 3 bomber built. (and sinking the italian navy in B2)
Sinking the italian navy does not threaten the german. If the german built one additional transport in his second turn the second british built will have to fortify the United Kingdom. The italian will start putting out infantry and relieve the german forces from defending France further increasing the pressure for russia. Nothing has been done to stop japan from taking africa. His majestys navy will never

Pros - Italy will stop threatening africa and never get major IPC.
Cons - GB will not have a navy and Germany can withdraw its forces from the western theatre.

Should germany commit planes in Egypt?
No! germanys 1st turn is the most important turn of the whole game. Commiting the german bomber just to destroy one plane is a misplacement of forces. The german airforce should IMHO be commited to destroy the royal navy.

1. Send 1 submarine, 1 fighter, one bomber to seazone 2 to sink the Hood and its transport
2. Send 1 submarine, 2 fighters to seazone 12 to sink 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer
3. Send 1 submarine, 1 fighter to seazone 6 to sink 1 destroyer

did you look at the ratio of victory in G1 egypt with no planes?

its a suicide mission and with planes its 30% success according to others.

If i was the allies i would say this as well.

The question is whether Italy needs to be in Russia or Africa.

Of course its a suicide mission!

Still, i’ve seen this suicide mission suceed. But thats not the point. The only reason for the attack is to kill a good number of british units, so that italy can kill the rest - and up until now it always worked with a surviving british fighter at most.
The attack is not meant to win something, only to open up opportunities. Italy can decide after the british turn and attack the most attractive target. Still, if you prefer to use your bomber in egypt so that italy can take trans-jordan i cant disagree with you - its just not my prefered strategy.

As far as I have heard the chance of victory when the bomber is brought in to Egypt goes up from about 30% to 75% (and the chance of a tie is changed from 40% to about 80%. If this is incorrect I stand corrected but as for my opinions that is the numbers I use. I’m also assuming playing with NO’s.

After reading the posts here I’m still in favor of attacking Egypt on G1 with the bomber included. In real IPC values only counting lost units and change in income, yes, attacking the navy is better. There are a few things however that has to be considered.

First of all, Italy badly needs their NO’s, probably more so than any other power. Getting Italy on the move early will most likely win an extra bunch of IPC later turns, a change that can’t be calculated like lost units in G1. The effect of the invasion isn’t supposed to show on round one but to improve Axis positions for future turns.

Attacking Egypt does not make attacks against the royal navy impossible, you just have to be either selective or take a few risks. The only real mandatory attack is to remove the destroyer off Gibraltar to remove the UK chance of hitting the Italian navy.

UK has a few options now, if they reinforce africa the rest of their navy will be sunk. Attacking anywhere in europe will also make a non-reinforced british navy vulnerable to German planes (especially if they added a bomber in the purchase on G1). So they buy navy? Ok, then we probably are where we would be on UK1 anyway, a UK navy that Germany does not want to hit unless desperate. They buy bombers? Fine, I welcome them to “waste” an entire round of production. Africa would be up for grabs for the Axis for a few more turns. Italy will most likely be quite close to UK on round 3 and all of a sudden you got quite a lot of IPC helping either against a european invasion or at the east front.

I can see trouble coming Axis way but that is due to other imbalances in the game and not due to the fact that a UK BB is super-important to strike round 1 (not saying I wouldn’t though).

The general problem i face with germany in G1 is, that i dont just want to destroy a major proportion of the british forces, but also narrow down his builts. If the battleship and the transport dont go down, with no naval built a single aircraft carrier is enough to secure his fleet and the uk still has 29 IPCs to spend on other projects. That doesnt stop the general british plan of harrasing germany and securing africa and maybe even threatening the asian islands. With its BB alive, its not  fleet or bombers or IC but all together.

But as i play without NOs, maybe the additional 5 italian IPCs are worth weaking the attack on his majestys navy.

Let me re-iterate, I feel it is a good idea for Germany, in 1941 setup (not in the 1942 setup) to attack Egypt on round 1.  I do not feel it important to bring fighters to this engagement, nor bombers.  I realize that this is most likely a suicide run resulting in either two enemy units surviving, no units surviving or as many as two friendly units surviving depending on how the dice land.

That said.  I think just the act of weakening Egypt is important.  Would you like an Egypt with a Fighter, 4 Infantry, Artillery, Armor and an Industrial Complex on it?

Remember, you most likely do not have the equipment set up to hit it with Germany anyway.  Not with that much on there.  If you do, England could always retreat to Sudan/Persia and set up a counter strike on anything you put in Egypt instead.

I’m afraid Germany must commit to Egypt on G1 and bring the bomber along becuase if he does not then the UK with little effort can deny Italy any chance in Africa and becuase of that any income in the game.  Look at it this way, lets say Germany ignores Egypt on G1, Britain then moves its 2 inf from Trans-jordan to Egypt and takes their two fighters in England to Africa where they can arrive on egypt by UK2.  Also, if Japan does not take out the India transport the UK can move an extra inf to Egypt of UK1.  Either way you deny any hope of Italy taking out Egypt, and honestly what resources can Germany actually use on G2 to take out Egypt with those forces in place.  By UK 3 Italy is out of Africa unless they spend every IPC to put a stack of inf on Libya.

Just to make it even worse America and take its West coast bomber to Australia on US1 and threaten any Japanese tranports who sail alone, and then on US 2 land in Egypt to threaten Italy with SBR raids further knocking them out of the war.

Or, you could just take Egypt on G1 and remove this entire threat for several turns and allow Italy to expand and threaten South Africa and India.

Well if you G1 Egypt what you bring, and how do you now allocate the attacks on the uk navy?

I guess off the bat the UK BB and Transport are to be ignored, or is their a way to still kill them plus the UK CA/DD?

you got 4 fighters and 2 subs

Look at it this way, lets say Germany ignores Egypt on G1, Britain then moves its 2 inf from Trans-jordan to Egypt and takes their two fighters in England to Africa where they can arrive on egypt by UK2

Thats two fighters spending two rounds doing nothing? No attack on the german fleet, no manning a carrier, no support for Karelia?

Just to make it even worse America and take its West coast bomber to Australia on US1 and threaten any Japanese tranports who sail alone, and then on US 2 land in Egypt to threaten Italy with SBR raids further knocking them out of the war.

Now the west coast bomber also spends two turns doing nothing? And you are aware that japan can take australia on j2? At least fly your west coast bomber into the UK and start SBR on U2. And if by some miracle there still are troops in Egypt, you can also land there.

Well if you G1 Egypt what you bring, and how do you now allocate the attacks on the uk navy?

I guess off the bat the UK BB and Transport are to be ignored, or is their a way to still kill them plus the UK CA/DD?

you got 4 fighters and 2 subs

I think there has been enough talk about optimal attack allocation in this event in this forum. 1 sub and two fighters vs. the cruiser and destroyer and 1 sub takes on the destroyer and the transport. There is not much what you can do wrong with these.

@Count_Zeppelin:

I think there has been enough talk about optimal attack allocation in this event in this forum. 1 sub and two fighters vs. the cruiser and destroyer and 1 sub takes on the destroyer and the transport. There is not much what you can do wrong with these.

Except loose the German fighter that has to land in Algeria US 1. And while it may be long odds for 1 INF and 1 ART I think it would be well worth it to deprive Germany of a fighter.

What about this:

Sz 2 - trn, bb vs. 2 subs, 1 ftr
Sz 6 - dd vs. sub, ftr
Sz 12 - dd, ca vs. 2 ftrs
Egy - 2 inf, 1 rt, 1 arm, 1 ftr vs. 2 inf, 1 rt, 2 arm, 1 bom

Now, in Sz 2 you should get 1 hit in rd 1 between your subs and ftr and in rd 2 you may even sink the BB without it even firing back if your sub hits.

Sz 12 is risky with only the 2 ftrs, but the price is a beefed up Egy attack.  Otherwise, the bom to Sz 2 and 1 sub to sz 12.

In my first game as Axis I did:

1 sub, 1 ftr, 1 bom to Sz 2
1 sub, 1 ftr to sz 6
1 sub, 2 ftrs to sz 12
2 inf, 1 rt, 2 arm to Egy

And while I won all of them, I was not at all comfortable with the Egy Attack (I took with 1 tank leftover).  I think I’d rather risk the Sz 12 battle then not taking out Egy.  So I may try the bom to Egy in my next game.

Looks okay to me, DM.  But then, I like to obliterate the Russian army between me and Moscow before I worry about england’s navy.