Nit picky German Economizer

@Ender:

But I know that Jennifer is impervious to Facts

Or maybe she just PRETENDS to be impervious to Facts.

Dun dun dun!

No, I am very previous to the facts, you just are not remembering the dice very well, it seems.

Egypt, Germany 1:  Defender 100% accuracy in 1 round of battle
Buryatia, Japan 1: 5 infantry score 5 hits in two rounds destroying the Japanese invasion.
SZ 6, Germany 2:  Submarine defies odds against 2 fighters, not big, but adds to the pattern
Ukraine, Russia 3: 100% attacking accuracy with armor (you rolled an extra, you had 3 armor, you rolled 4)
Belorussia, Russia 3: 100% attacking accuracy with armor and fighters
Karelia, Russia 3: 50% attacking accuracy with armor and fighters.
***Note in Round 3 you attacked with a total of 11 armor and fighters and scored 9 hits.  In reality you should have left all your armor exposed to counter attack here, instead you took all without really any damage at all.

The infamous Ukraine:

Attacker: 4 Infantry, 2 Artillery, 9 Armor, 3 Fighters
Defender: 8 Infantry, 3 Armor

In round 1 I had 5 hits out of 12 with Armor/Fighters, BELOW AVERAGE, again mind you.  4 Rounds in a row!
of course, my infantry and artillery all missed instead of getting the statistical 1 or 2 hits.  In LL that should have been 7 hits + 1 roll at 4 or less, or roughly 8 hits in most rolls.  I got 5.  63% a failing grade in any class.

The only thing is that your karma caught up with you.  Russia, over confident as usual, and who can blame them with their near 100% accuracy this game?, forgot to load their guns or something since they only got 1 hit in round 1.

Germany had a 100% chance to win with 9 tanks, statistically.

And, for the record, your exact words were “Care to try your luck in Ukraine” with two winks after it.  That sounded like an invitation to attack Ukraine.

And in the second attack, Germany had an 81% chance to win with 8 units left.  Still not overly far off the median mark.  Where you are getting your 2 armor left idea I have no idea.

Anyway, I didn’t bother lining up for defense in Round 5 or worry about builds, etc, cause the whole purpose of the game was over.  Overwhelming dice results almost cost the Axis the game, a turn around was slowely coming into play, though the results were only moderatly above average for Germany in the last round.  Russia was turned into a paper tiger because it lost the majority of it’s armies and was reduced to 100 IPC in armies to include 3 fighters.

Russia: 15 Infantry, 3 Armor, 3 Fighters most of which were on the Japanese front.
Germany: 30 infantry, 12 Armor, 2 Fighters, Bomber most of which on the Russian front.
Japan: 12 Infantry, Artillery, 7 Armor, Bomber of consequence on the Russian front. (other assets present, but not positioned for attack on Russia.)

Russia was going to fall.  England and America each had about 50 IPC worth of units in the theater, but were out of position in Norway/England not in the way as they would have been in Russia/Caucasus/W. Russia/Karelia.

Summary: Allies: 6 Lucky attacks, 2 unlucky defenses
Summary: Axis: 2 Normal/slightly lucky attacks, 6 atrocious defenses

If you think a come-back was in the works, let’s start over from the beginning of R5. I won’t move my stack to get slaughtered, and you won’t leave Germany exposed, and let’s see what happens.

BTW I’m basing my predictions on the set-up at the start of the battle, when I had 18 Inf 2 Art 9 Arm. Which as you point out scored only 1 hit in defence. Even if the first round of German attack was a little below average, it was still essentially a free attack.

So what are the odds of 18 Inf 2 Art 9 Arm scoring only 1 hit in defence?

And re: your battle examples:
Egypt G1 is not Russian occupied
Bury: I had 6 Inf. Statistically they would score 2 hits first round, so getting one more than that and scoring a few more the next turn is not that outlandish. The only thing that sucked was your attacking dice.

and so on. You give an example of about 1 battle per round. The one that puzzles me most is “Karelia, Russia 3” - 50% is exactly the accuracy you expect from Armor and Fighters.

So let’s start from R5 again. I can’t have you saying that this game demonstrated your superior skill.

@Ender:

If you think a come-back was in the works, let’s start over from the beginning of R5. I won’t move my stack to get slaughtered, and you won’t leave Germany exposed, and let’s see what happens.

You mean undo the reason a come back was coming?

How about I just build normal units and place them like I would have done and you see if the Russian luck returns? :P  Anyway, it’s relatively moot given it was turn 5, 4 rounds AFTER the blitz we were testing.

Look, I only moved into Ukraine because I thought you were afeared of Russian dice. It wasn’t a move I would normally make. And you only attacked it because a) I provoked you to and b) you were not planning to continue after that move.

That’s a risk of war.  Had I set up normally, would you have conceded after Ukraine part two?  I don’t think so.  Though, life was getting hard for the Allies because I had to play as conservatively as hell, taking no risks at all after I lost 132 IPC in units in one round doing 6 IPC in return to Russia.

@Cmdr:

That’s a risk of war.  Had I set up normally, would you have conceded after Ukraine part two?  I don’t think so.  Though, life was getting hard for the Allies because I had to play as conservatively as hell, taking no risks at all after I lost 132 IPC in units in one round doing 6 IPC in return to Russia.

Sorry, what 132 IPCs? Never mind.

Look, I was a gentleman and gave you no-luck results in R1, and switched to Battlemap. If you want to see how I really play, we can start from the beginning of R5. It’s only because I thought you would be too afraid to attack Ukraine that I moved there. Again, as I said before, against any other opponent I would have stayed in WRus one more turn, but you have your theories about dice…

I know you thought I was too afraid to attack Ukraine.  In a normal game, you would have still thought that and I would have still attacked it because I had nothing to lose and everything to gain. =)

Look, I totally agree that it was premature to move into Ukraine. It was a bad move. All I’m saying is that I normally wouldn’t have done it. It was a lapse in judgment.

And further I’m saying that if I hadn’t done it, the Allies were in a pretty good position.

They were in a respectable position.  I don’t know if I’d say “good” position.  You were letting Japan become a monster, IMHO.

WHAT??? How so? Japan still did not have a solid hold on India, and it’s biggest forces were in Bury and Manchuria!!!

@Ender:

WHAT??? How so? Japan still did not have a solid hold on India, and it’s biggest forces were in Bury and Manchuria!!!

According to my map, Japan had India, had a very large contingent of infantry and armor for this early in teh game, owned nearly everything in it’s field of vision and was ready to start unloading into Africa.

Especially once the Russian army was destroyed in Ukraine and there was nothing but a dozen infantry and a few tanks left to stand in their way!

They didn’t have Sinkiang, but you were forced to retreat out.  But they had India.  1 Armor sitting on it.

@Cmdr:

@Ender:

WHAT??? How so? Japan still did not have a solid hold on India, and it’s biggest forces were in Bury and Manchuria!!!

According to my map, Japan had India, had a very large contingent of infantry and armor for this early in teh game, owned nearly everything in it’s field of vision and was ready to start unloading into Africa.

I said “solid hold on India”. Japan was about to lose India again - UK had 2 Armor in Caucasus, and several air units in range as well. I would happily send in 2 tanks to keep Japan from producing a factory in India for one more round. In terms of unloading to Africa, you only had 4 or 5 transports, 3 or 4 of which you needed to move units from Japan, your only factory.

Especially once the Russian army was destroyed in Ukraine and there was nothing but a dozen infantry and a few tanks left to stand in their way!
Umm, you’ll notice I said “I’m saying that if I hadn’t done it, the Allies were in a pretty good position.” So PRIOR to the Ukraine move, the Allies were in a pretty good position. After, it was obviously NOT as good.
They didn’t have Sinkiang, but you were forced to retreat out.  But they had India.  1 Armor sitting on it.

How long do the Allies normally hang on to Sinkiang? J2 or J3 is pretty normal for Japan to take Sinkiang. You were only going to take it in J5, and without me losing a single unit there.

So if you think the Allies were in a good position BEFORE my Ukraine move, let’s play it out from that point.

I dont know about your games, I’ve successfully held Sinkiang until the fall of Germany before.  It’s more economical to hold Sinkiang then Novosibirsk + Kazakh.  Not for the least because that’s +4 IPC for Russia a round and territory that doesn’t need garrison.

My normal loss of Sinkiang?  Probably around Japan 5 or 6 is when it falls.  And not because the armies are defeated, but because I pull out so they won’t be defeated.  Next fall back line is going to be Russia because at that point, Evenki, Novosibirsk and Kazakh are too many spots to protect at once.

Is this memorable game archived somewhere, preferably in TripleA ?

Here’s the game: http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=10374.105 , and uploaded is a Battlemap file of the game at the end of Russia 5. Now with one change to the map (Russia’s stack in WRus instead of Ukraine) I think you’ll agree that the Allies were in pretty good shape.

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Yea, what he is forgetting is the Russian stack was obliterated by the Germans putting the entire Allied offensive in very serious question, especially since he had nothing left to defend against Japan or Germany.

He’ll try to say if he knew I was going to attack it then he wouldn’t have moved it in range.  But that’s an invalid argument.  He knew there was a chance I would attack it and he did not know at the time it was going to be my last move in the game, but decided to move there anyway because he thought I’d be too afraid to attack it.

Heck, if we want to go back in time of the game, I could go back to Russia 1 before it moved and say “Look at the Axis, they are in a very strong position!”

But that’s not feasible just like cherry picking a frame from the middle of the game and changing some moves to prevent what actually happened from happening is feasible.

Look, it’s a fact that you have funny ideas about dice.

It’s also a fact that you got lucky in your attack on Ukraine. With average luck, BOTH of us would have had our stacks eliminated.

However, I’ve said all along that my move into Ukraine was a mistake. Just because I’m better than you doesn’t mean I’m perfect.  :wink:

What’s  your point? I agree, Russia was in bad shape after G5. My point is that it was ONE mistake, and that prior to that, I was doing very well. I say we have a re-match, this time no prescribed openings, just mono a mono.

I have only read teh last couple of pages of Ender and Jenn duking it out. so I appoligeze if my comment makes no sense. My take on the Karelia blitz is this. This is assuming Russia takes both terrortories back rd. 2

Archangle 2 ipc for Germany
Kareliia 2 ipc for Germany
3/6 tank hit * 3 ipc  = 1.5 ipc

• 5 for loss of tank
  Therefore teh blitz gives Germany a .5 ipc advantage in German favour. It also forces the Russians to divert forces to the north. so i say it is good for Germany to blitz. gives russia more to deal with and u no economic hurt. actually its is a -1 ipc advantage or a 2 ipc advantage for Germany.

You can’t really count the 2 IPCs for Karelia because Germany can get those without sacrificing the tank. The question is whether it is worth putting the tank into archangel for the ADDITIONAL 2 IPCs.n