Nit picky German Economizer

[trihero]

Erm just curious, who wound up “winning”? It sounds like you both quit, but I’m not sure…did someone give in to someone else or just a mutual quit or what? lol  :lol:

[Jennifer]

@Bean:

Erm just curious, who wound up “winning”? It sounds like you both quit, but I’m not sure…did someone give in to someone else or just a mutual quit or what? lol  :lol:

It wasn’t a matter of winning or losing.  It was a matter to demonstrate that the Blitz of Archangelsk was in Germany’s long term favor.

And yea, I left Germany exposed.  I really didn’t put any thought into that round, just wanted to demonstrate the point that Russia was a paper tiger at that point.  Though, it was nice to finally get some average or better (in this case much better) dice against Russia.  They’d been so uber frackin lucky in every battle on both offense and defense it wasn’t even partly funny.

[frood]

Russia had pretty avg. dice. The allies had the game sewn up except that Jennifer decided to hang the whole game on an all or nothing attack against a big Russian stack in the Ukraine, and got really lucky.

Ordinarily I would not have moved my Russian stack into the Ukraine at this point but I was gambling on two things:

1. That Jennifer would send a couple of units into Karelia, leaving her with not quite enough stuff to attack Ukraine and
2. That Jennifer’s typical superstition re: dice and esp. Russia’s dice in this game would hold and dissuade her from attacking Ukraine.

Jenn surprised me on both accounts, and committed to attacking Ukraine while declaring that she didn’t really want to continue anymore, and so she wasn’t even going to build. I think that she expected this battle to confirm yet again that Russia had insane dice, and give her a good excuse to walk away from it. Instead, she got really lucky, so she quietly placed a build and posted a map “just in case I wanted to press it farther”. So I think if she had been intending to continue to play, she would not have attacked Ukraine.

However, that was the play she needed to make, and she made it. I really regret my Ukraine move now, I should have just traded at least one more turn, because Allied reinforcements were just one turn away and with those in place I really would have had Europe locked up. In the meantime, Japan still did not have a hold on India, and it’s biggest forces were in Manchuria and Burytia, so Japan was still a good 3-4 turns away from really putting pressure on Russia.

So it’s hard to say who would have won. Russia had lost a lot of units, but the Allies were about 26 in production still at Round 5 - generally the Axis are in trouble if they have not equalized income by the time the Allied fleets are in full shuck. In addition, Germany only had 10 Inf and nothing else on it, so the 7 allied TRN + BB and air in range probably could have taken it.

So:
-Russian stack wiped out
-Berlin vulnerable
-Allies 26 ahead in production
-Allied shipping almost in full gear
-Japan still not controlling India (UK about to retake it w/ 2 Arm + 1 Bom, as Ind held w/1 Jap. Arm)

about sums up the basics of where the game was at. But for the purposes of the Arc blitz, just review the first two rounds of the game.

I’d be willing to resume the game from the beginning of Round 5, before both of us made big silly moves, but it’s up to Jennifer.

As it stands though no one can claim victory. I suppose I could, since Jennifer threw up her hands first, but what would be the point? It’s not very satisfying to end a game in that manner though.

[frood]

@Cmdr:

@Bean:

Erm just curious, who wound up “winning”? It sounds like you both quit, but I’m not sure…did someone give in to someone else or just a mutual quit or what? lol  :lol:

It wasn’t a matter of winning or losing.  It was a matter to demonstrate that the Blitz of Archangelsk was in Germany’s long term favor.

And yea, I left Germany exposed.  I really didn’t put any thought into that round, just wanted to demonstrate the point that Russia was a paper tiger at that point.  Though, it was nice to finally get some average or better (in this case much better) dice against Russia.  They’d been so uber frackin lucky in every battle on both offense and defense it wasn’t even partly funny.

Russia was not a paper tiger. Russia had maintained income of about 30 throughout the game. True, Russia was not as big as Germany, but it was doing pretty well considering it was dealing with both Japan and Germany and had not really had much help from the other allies yet.

Russia was stupid to move its stack into the Ukraine, that’s all Russia was. And like I said above, ordinarily I wouldn’t have done it facing another player, but against you I thought you would be afraid of my Russian dice and would leave it alone. I’ve just learned yet again that it is never a good idea to base your strategy on expecting your opponent to make a mistake.

If you had had normal or worse than normal dice in that battle, you would have lost more IPCs than Russia, but there was a chance that you wouldn’t, so it was a bad move in that it gave you a chance to level the game.

It seems that you wouldn’t have attacked either except that you felt the game had lost its point, so if you had still been meaning to play the game out you wouldn’t have attacked.

[trihero]

Jenn surprised me on both accounts,

No one surprises Ender, Ender always wins! You’re a fake  :evil:

[frood]

@Bean:

Jenn surprised me on both accounts,

No one surprises Ender, Ender always wins! You’re a fake  :evil:

Does that mean you’re out of my jeesh?

[Jennifer]

Actually, Germany had a significant chance to win Ukraine with 7 out of 9 tanks.  That they won with 9 tanks is not that exceptional.

However, how many battles did Russia win when they had an 8% chance to even have a surviving unit?  Like almost all of them and with almost perfect survivability rates to boot.  That’s why Russia is said to have had exceptionally lucky dice in this game.

Also, you asked me for an attack on Ukraine, which is why I did it.  You wanted to hang it on that battle, I didn’t.  I just complied with your request.

And furthermore, if England and America had even half the luck that Russia had that game, Tokyo would have been conquered on Round 3 and Berlin on Round 2.  That’s how nutso those dice were.  Only reason round 1 was “average” for Russia’s ATTACK was because the dice were so ridiculous even YOU couldn’t stomach the results.  The DEFENSE of Russia in Round 1 was game breaking, IMHO.  6 Infantry do not beat 4 Infantry, Artillery, Armor, Battleship, 2 Fighters and a Bomber in any reality.  Likewise, your perfect defense of Ukraine.  It was like a nutso ride, it really was.  Like giving an 8 year old the remote control to your car and then getting into it without a seatbelt on.

It’s a testament of my skill at the game that Germany not only survived Russia’s luck but also destroyed the Russian offensive machine with enough force to push on and turn the tide of battle.

All of which is irrelevant, the relevance was in Rounds 1 and 2, not 3, 4 and 5.  And I, personally, still think the blitz is the better move even if I had near 0 defensive hits in both rounds 1 and 2 of that battle with Germany.

[frood]

@Cmdr:

Actually, Germany had a significant chance to win Ukraine with 7 out of 9 tanks.  That they won with 9 tanks is not that exceptional.
The median result was 2 tanks surviving. So 9 is pretty good.

However, how many battles did Russia win when they had an 8% chance to even have a surviving unit?  Like almost all of them and with almost perfect survivability rates to boot.  That’s why Russia is said to have had exceptionally lucky dice in this game.

You keep citing these very precise percentages, but I don’t see which battles you are talking about. Apart from your attack on Bury, pretty much all the Russian attacks were trading battles. Can you please cite some specific battles where I had these supposedly amazing dice?

Also, you asked me for an attack on Ukraine, which is why I did it.  You wanted to hang it on that battle, I didn’t.  I just complied with your request.

I didn’t ASK you to, I said “care to try your luck against the amazing dice of Russia” or something like that. Whatever

And furthermore, if England and America had even half the luck that Russia had that game, Tokyo would have been conquered on Round 3 and Berlin on Round 2.  That’s how nutso those dice were.  Only reason round 1 was “average” for Russia’s ATTACK was because the dice were so ridiculous even YOU couldn’t stomach the results.  The DEFENSE of Russia in Round 1 was game breaking, IMHO.  6 Infantry do not beat 4 Infantry, Artillery, Armor, Battleship, 2 Fighters and a Bomber in any reality.  Likewise, your perfect defense of Ukraine.  It was like a nutso ride, it really was.  Like giving an 8 year old the remote control to your car and then getting into it without a seatbelt on.

That whole paragraph is nutso. First, Russia 1 I survived with 3 more Inf than expected, which is hardly huge, esp. compared to the 7 extra armor that you had surviving your Ukraine attack. Again, please cite some battles other than the Bury one where I had this supposed luck.

It’s a testament of my skill at the game that Germany not only survived Russia’s luck but also destroyed the Russian offensive machine with enough force to push on and turn the tide of battle.

Umm actually no. That’s a testament to the fact that I gambled on your superstition re dice and lost in that you actually attacked, and further a testament to the fact that luck tends to even out, as you got pretty lucky in that battle. With average luck, that battle actually should have been a loser for you in terms of units/IPCs lost. The only reason the attack was a good move was that you were behind anyway and had to gamble to have a shot at equalizing, and hence it was a mistake for me to create that opportunity for you. In other words, it was a single mistake by me, not testimony to your skill.

All of which is irrelevant, the relevance was in Rounds 1 and 2, not 3, 4 and 5.  And I, personally, still think the blitz is the better move even if I had near 0 defensive hits in both rounds 1 and 2 of that battle with Germany.

Indeed. I think the game showed that the only result of the Arch blitz was that

1. Germany gained 2 IPCs for Archangel
2. Russia killed a German tank (for free in this case but in 50% of games it would be in exchange for an Inf)
3. Russia was not hampered by having any units “out of position”

That’s what happened in the game. But I know that Jennifer is impervious to Facts, so this will be my last post on the merits of the Arc blitz, and I heartily invite her to try it against me every game we play.

[newpaintbrush]

@Ender:

But I know that Jennifer is impervious to Facts

Or maybe she just PRETENDS to be impervious to Facts.

Dun dun dun!

[Jennifer]

No, I am very previous to the facts, you just are not remembering the dice very well, it seems.

Egypt, Germany 1:  Defender 100% accuracy in 1 round of battle
Buryatia, Japan 1: 5 infantry score 5 hits in two rounds destroying the Japanese invasion.
SZ 6, Germany 2:  Submarine defies odds against 2 fighters, not big, but adds to the pattern
Ukraine, Russia 3: 100% attacking accuracy with armor (you rolled an extra, you had 3 armor, you rolled 4)
Belorussia, Russia 3: 100% attacking accuracy with armor and fighters
Karelia, Russia 3: 50% attacking accuracy with armor and fighters.
***Note in Round 3 you attacked with a total of 11 armor and fighters and scored 9 hits.  In reality you should have left all your armor exposed to counter attack here, instead you took all without really any damage at all.

The infamous Ukraine:

Attacker: 4 Infantry, 2 Artillery, 9 Armor, 3 Fighters
Defender: 8 Infantry, 3 Armor

In round 1 I had 5 hits out of 12 with Armor/Fighters, BELOW AVERAGE, again mind you.  4 Rounds in a row!
of course, my infantry and artillery all missed instead of getting the statistical 1 or 2 hits.  In LL that should have been 7 hits + 1 roll at 4 or less, or roughly 8 hits in most rolls.  I got 5.  63% a failing grade in any class.

The only thing is that your karma caught up with you.  Russia, over confident as usual, and who can blame them with their near 100% accuracy this game?, forgot to load their guns or something since they only got 1 hit in round 1.

Germany had a 100% chance to win with 9 tanks, statistically.

And, for the record, your exact words were “Care to try your luck in Ukraine” with two winks after it.  That sounded like an invitation to attack Ukraine.

And in the second attack, Germany had an 81% chance to win with 8 units left.  Still not overly far off the median mark.  Where you are getting your 2 armor left idea I have no idea.

Anyway, I didn’t bother lining up for defense in Round 5 or worry about builds, etc, cause the whole purpose of the game was over.  Overwhelming dice results almost cost the Axis the game, a turn around was slowely coming into play, though the results were only moderatly above average for Germany in the last round.  Russia was turned into a paper tiger because it lost the majority of it’s armies and was reduced to 100 IPC in armies to include 3 fighters.

Russia: 15 Infantry, 3 Armor, 3 Fighters most of which were on the Japanese front.
Germany: 30 infantry, 12 Armor, 2 Fighters, Bomber most of which on the Russian front.
Japan: 12 Infantry, Artillery, 7 Armor, Bomber of consequence on the Russian front. (other assets present, but not positioned for attack on Russia.)

Russia was going to fall.  England and America each had about 50 IPC worth of units in the theater, but were out of position in Norway/England not in the way as they would have been in Russia/Caucasus/W. Russia/Karelia.

Summary: Allies: 6 Lucky attacks, 2 unlucky defenses
Summary: Axis: 2 Normal/slightly lucky attacks, 6 atrocious defenses

[frood]

If you think a come-back was in the works, let’s start over from the beginning of R5. I won’t move my stack to get slaughtered, and you won’t leave Germany exposed, and let’s see what happens.

BTW I’m basing my predictions on the set-up at the start of the battle, when I had 18 Inf 2 Art 9 Arm. Which as you point out scored only 1 hit in defence. Even if the first round of German attack was a little below average, it was still essentially a free attack.

So what are the odds of 18 Inf 2 Art 9 Arm scoring only 1 hit in defence?

And re: your battle examples:
Egypt G1 is not Russian occupied
Bury: I had 6 Inf. Statistically they would score 2 hits first round, so getting one more than that and scoring a few more the next turn is not that outlandish. The only thing that sucked was your attacking dice.

and so on. You give an example of about 1 battle per round. The one that puzzles me most is “Karelia, Russia 3” - 50% is exactly the accuracy you expect from Armor and Fighters.

So let’s start from R5 again. I can’t have you saying that this game demonstrated your superior skill.

[Jennifer]

@Ender:

If you think a come-back was in the works, let’s start over from the beginning of R5. I won’t move my stack to get slaughtered, and you won’t leave Germany exposed, and let’s see what happens.

You mean undo the reason a come back was coming?

How about I just build normal units and place them like I would have done and you see if the Russian luck returns? :P  Anyway, it’s relatively moot given it was turn 5, 4 rounds AFTER the blitz we were testing.

[frood]

Look, I only moved into Ukraine because I thought you were afeared of Russian dice. It wasn’t a move I would normally make. And you only attacked it because a) I provoked you to and b) you were not planning to continue after that move.

[Jennifer]

That’s a risk of war.  Had I set up normally, would you have conceded after Ukraine part two?  I don’t think so.  Though, life was getting hard for the Allies because I had to play as conservatively as hell, taking no risks at all after I lost 132 IPC in units in one round doing 6 IPC in return to Russia.

[frood]

@Cmdr:

That’s a risk of war.  Had I set up normally, would you have conceded after Ukraine part two?  I don’t think so.  Though, life was getting hard for the Allies because I had to play as conservatively as hell, taking no risks at all after I lost 132 IPC in units in one round doing 6 IPC in return to Russia.

Sorry, what 132 IPCs? Never mind.

Look, I was a gentleman and gave you no-luck results in R1, and switched to Battlemap. If you want to see how I really play, we can start from the beginning of R5. It’s only because I thought you would be too afraid to attack Ukraine that I moved there. Again, as I said before, against any other opponent I would have stayed in WRus one more turn, but you have your theories about dice…

[Jennifer]

I know you thought I was too afraid to attack Ukraine.  In a normal game, you would have still thought that and I would have still attacked it because I had nothing to lose and everything to gain. =)

[frood]

Look, I totally agree that it was premature to move into Ukraine. It was a bad move. All I’m saying is that I normally wouldn’t have done it. It was a lapse in judgment.

And further I’m saying that if I hadn’t done it, the Allies were in a pretty good position.

[Jennifer]

They were in a respectable position.  I don’t know if I’d say “good” position.  You were letting Japan become a monster, IMHO.

[frood]

WHAT??? How so? Japan still did not have a solid hold on India, and it’s biggest forces were in Bury and Manchuria!!!

[Jennifer]

@Ender:

WHAT??? How so? Japan still did not have a solid hold on India, and it’s biggest forces were in Bury and Manchuria!!!

According to my map, Japan had India, had a very large contingent of infantry and armor for this early in teh game, owned nearly everything in it’s field of vision and was ready to start unloading into Africa.

Especially once the Russian army was destroyed in Ukraine and there was nothing but a dozen infantry and a few tanks left to stand in their way!

They didn’t have Sinkiang, but you were forced to retreat out.  But they had India.  1 Armor sitting on it.