@trulpen said in Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB:
We want to cripple G, but don’t want to cripple the UK. With Bismarck entering the scene, scrambling won’t risk enough german air, unfortunately. It’s a risky move to scramble, with lots of potential drawbacks. Better to let Bismark survive and then knock the sucker out with a pair or more of figs along with sweet subs.
@Omega1759 said in Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB:
Understand the reluctance to scramble, the move considers the long game and puts lots of value in reducing options for the Luftwaffe (In hands of a good player the starting Luftwaffe is worth a lot more than IPC swing).
@Omega1759 said in Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB:
Another way to think about this, pretty sure Andrew doesn’t want us to scramble and risk attrition on the Luftwaffe.
@trulpen said in Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB:
follow your line of thinking. I’m actually in favour of it, but not in this situation. If it fails and G doesn’t lose any air at all, UK will be in a terrible position. It’s simply not worth the risk. Those air can do a much better job later on, especially during UK1, than sacrificing themselves in a lucky hope.
Also, Andrew explicitly informed us that he’d be happy if we scrambled in z110. I’m confident it’s nothing as silly as reversed psychology, but the honest opinion. And I agree with that conclusion.
If UK is lucky in that scramble, however, it’d be awesome, but it’s not even 50 % chance of getting a decent result.
@surfer said in Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB:
Also, we should believe @AndrewAAGamer comments at all times in this particular game. He has gone to alot of work to set this teaching game up ( sorry @trulpen, no disrepect intended. You are also key in this.) So his purpose is not to confuse,but instruct
@Omega1759 said in Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB:
Losing 2 planes under that is tolerable but the volatility around the outcome would certainly cause me to take a deep breath before the battle.
@trulpen said in Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB:
For me, if I was in his shoes, I’d be full of anticipation.
Wow - lot of comments here. Excellent!
So turlpen’s logic regarding the SZ 110 scramble is accurate as is surfer’s comments that I am trying to instruct and not confuse. As this is a Tutor game anything I post is, IMHO, the correct way to play. Omega1759’s comments that SZ 110 could be very bad for Germany is also true, but only if the dice are not average.
Let’s dive into the SZ 110 battle.
With a 3 fighter scramble ON AVERAGE the Allies are going to lose 3 fighters and the Axis is going to lose 2 fighters. Two fighters and not a fighter/tactical combo because a fighter/tactical combo is better at Sea offensively than two fighters but the two fighters are worse on Land because the unattached tactical bomber can combo with an armor and still get its SA. Since at this point Germany does not care about the Sea beyond these initial attacks and what Germany wants is more firepower for the ultimate battle in Moscow this means keeping the tactical bombers.
If the dice come out average than the UK has less firepower to beat up the Italians which is a Primary Goal. In addition, once the Italians are neutralized any starting fighters can make Moscow. In Moscow those fighters defend at 4 (12 OFP) and add three HP. Killing 2 German fighters reduces the German attack on Moscow by 6 OFP plus 2 HP and those fighters have to face AAA. That is a really good trade for the Axis. Finally, as trulpen points out that German BB is dead in the water even if it survives. A decent chance for free, thanks to the sub attack, and certainly on the cheap for most likely a mere sub.
Now this is not to discount Omega1769’s point. If the dice go bad than it could be very bad for the Axis. However since the average is a good result for the Axis that is hoping for lucky dice which is not how we want to play unless we think the only way we can win is lucky dice. Not sure the World feels that way yet. Since average dice is good for the Axis then two of the three results are good for the Axis; better than average and average, while only one is worse, lower than average. Not sure the Allies want to dig themselves a hole on G1 66-75% of the time.
This is not to say I am not nervous. Of course I am nervous! You never know how bad the dice might get! I do like Low Luck so much better… sigh no one likes to play Low Luck but me…