I dunno, ABH, I realize you’re a much better player on this map than I am, but depending on what Australia builds, I think you may be able to take Sydney on the cheap, without evacuating China. If ANZAC builds 3 infantry on A1, fine, maybe Sydney’s not a good investment. But if they build a transport and an infantry on turn 1, and they’re minus 2 infantry and minus 3 fighters and minus their naval blockers and you’ve got a naval base in Hainan, how much do you really need to take Australia? They’ve got what, something like 2 inf, 1 art, 1 AAA left on the mainland after A1? So after A3 that means something like 5 inf, 1 art, 1 ftr, 1 AAA, plus whatever planes the USA can fly over, if the USA even sees the attack coming in time. You could probably take that out as Japan with 3 loaded transports, 1 battleship, and 2 loaded carrier groups, which is a lot less than the entire Japanese air force.
If both India and ANZAC are doing a max turtle (India buys 3 inf, 2 mech; ANZAC buys 3 inf) and using their entire navies as blockers for Java, then I think the right strategy is to kill the blockers for cheap, take the money islands, don’t attack any capitals, send subs to India, focus on attacking China after you get the money islands, and just play a conservative game. At that point, the Allies have no navy in the western Pacific / eastern Indian ocean, so the money islands are easy to take and hold, although I guess you might not get Java until J3 if the Allies are really serious about reinforcing it from Malaya (that’s fine; taking Malaya is a higher priority anyway). You’re in a good position to hold out indefinitely against a KJF because none of the local Allied powers are building any offensive units, and if America focuses on Europe then you’ll have enough money to build up forces to take India on J6 or J7 and fight a standard endgame where you try to get to Sydney or Honolulu before America can shut down Germany hard enough to allow them to pivot to the Pacific. I think I’d be pretty happy to play that game as the Axis, as long as the bid isn’t too high.
So if India doesn’t turtle, take India. If India turtles but ANZAC is aggressive, take ANZAC for cheap while holding the line in China. If both India and ANZAC turtle, take the money islands and press forward in China. It’s nuanced, but it’s not rocket science.