Hey PainState. Welcome to the forum, glad you found the community.
Regarding your realities, frankly, all 3 of them are wrong/irrelevant.
Italy and Anzac are scanvengers and dirt-eaters for Germany or USA. None of them is decisive or the key to the game.
Obviously it is better for the Allies to get Italy down and to keep more workload on the Germans. But there are plenty of ways the Axis can win the game even if Italy was taken down to very low income.
If the Allies invest too much in getting Italy down, the Germans are not distracted enough
Japan is obv. one of the 2 major Axis powers so playing the accurately is certainly essential for the Axis but if there is ONE key nation for the success I would say it is the Germans.
If I would have to name 3 realities I would name the following:
1. The German Russian front is all that matters. If you want to be successful with the Axis, make sure you play hard against the Russians and break through Bryansk South as fast as possible. For the Allies sz110 is the key factor to win because it stretches the German attention in the opposite direction of Moscow.
2. Keep Moscow and India safe. IF Japan wants India no matter the cost, they’ll get it but you need to keep the price high. Getting India must force Japan to lose air and/or to bring the fleet out of position. If Japan gets India without making any concessions, Allies are in trouble.
3. There is NO such thing as a hammer head strategy the Allies can crush the Axis. Well played Axis simply cannot be crushed early with extreme strategies. Even if USA plays 100% Japan, they can hold the position for a while and in the meantime the Germans will go crazy.
The Allies kill the Axis by the 1000 bites tactics like Ants kill an animal 100 times their sizes.
Split your fleet, play the fleet bold, make landings here and there, stretch the Axis attention, try to reuse transports (that’s why 110 is so important!), invite the Axis to attack your fleet or your beachhead even at overwhelming odds IF this diminishes their power against Russia or India.