China and the UK can indeed stack Yunnan if Japan doesn’t take it, putting two Asian VCs at serious risk AFTER Japan has lost four precious ground units in the attack. Chinese strength in particular grows very quickly in this scenario because the Burma road is open. Japan can be forced to heavily defend those VCs, meaning that it probably does not have enough resources for an early victory.
On the other hand, it does pull defenses away from India if the UK stacks Yunnan to reinforce the Chinese.
It’s probably not a game ender for Japan, but it sure as heck makes Japan’s job a lot harder. Even if you are planning to not take India, you still have to hold Hong Kong to win and that defense becomes a major resource sink.
Marsh
The Burma Rd is open C1 & C2 (assuming UK1 DOW). By J3, Japan should have taken either Szechwan via Kweichow or Yunnan itself. They can also hit Burma and India but that normally is a bit slower.
ABH, did you mean with an unprovoked DOW by the UK on UK1? If the UK did that, I’d be leaping for joy. You’re assuming that some of the USSR mobile units moved towards China USSR1 and the planes flew back to Moscow or east, but let’s go with that. Japan is probably better off to focus on Kwangtung, Malaya and the money islands. They can even keep the NO for FIC! I don’t really think attacking Yunnan J2 if they stacked it with all that would be a good move. Hit UK_Pac!
Now as for Italian rage, that looks even worse in BM. The British tank should be the last unit taken as a casualty in this particularly, because it can be used to block Vichy. As allies, I’d prefer blocking Vichy with an amphibious assault from SZ109 on Normandy if that doesn’t happen. You can’t really do that combined with Taranto though.
Let’s go back to OOB though, I submit that you should still lose the British tank last if you have the least inkling that Italian rage might be tried. Let’s say that you lose it though. You can still strafe Northern Italy with 5 fighters, 1 tac, 1SB, which wins 55%. Would that be worth it? Calculator doesn’t think so. You do likely force them to decide whether to preserve the bomber in the first round, and if they do, they’ve weakened their defence. If they lose the bomber you can retreat unless you’ve rolled well but you’ve lost on average 3 planes to kill one.
EDIT: Oops, the Gib fighter can’t reach Northern Italy and land in France. But the tank also attacks on a 3 and the AA Guns still get 6 shots. With neither tank or fighter, the attack drops to 30% and -24 TUV swing.
Dang that’s a great point Simon. Why not turn the tables on Italy!
As I was saying, this happened to me in a live game, and now im regretting not doing either the Paris stack or the Rome attack, at least just to try this. Its an opening only the Axis can give you in attempting Italy Rage, one that (based on our analysis here) would actually be very likely to cost them the game! Since its a novel (but dangerous) gambit, it seems like a born loser…
The Allies certainly have the option for waiting until turn 2 before stacking Yunnan if Japan fails on J1. The Chinese will easily have enough units to retake the territory and likely will just use minimal forces if Japan did not issue a DOW on J2. at the end of their Chi2 turn, they easily could have 14 infantry + 6 art + 1 fighter stacked in Szechwan. That is an impressive army against the weak Axis forces in Asia.
If this is a no-bid / non-mod game, the Axis still can come back to win the game by capturing Moscow or heading down into the oilfields. I don’t think that I could come back for a win with BM rules.
