You mean instead of liberating London? I don’t think it’s wise to do first, England makes more money a round if it is unconquered than you’d get from these territories. However, a neutral crush on round 4 or 5 might be possible.
However, the Russians would do well to take Scandinavia - will be hard for Germany to liberate, takes another German NO away, easily reinforced by the British/Americans and gives 2 or 3 NOs to Russia (depending on if you take Sweeden too.) Yes the Germans had the transports to take London, but I’m assuming the United States Army Air Corps took those out a while ago by the time Russia has Norway, Finland and potentially Sweeden.
It’s pretty hard for the allies to take out the German fleet though. Unless US is spending 100% Atlantic for at least the first 3 turns. Taking Scandinavia won’t be worth it because Germany can always reach men there with his transports. Better to have all your units south taking out Romania, Iraq, Greece, Yugo, Hungry, Poland, Albania, and Bulgaria. There should be no way for the axis to stop this.
Can get the German fleet early if they focus on London. The will lose a LOT of planes over London, and their fleet will consist of mostly transports with a few extra boats. May cost CinCATLANTIC’s fleet, but that can be rebuilt faster than Germany can get new boats in the water. Meanwhile, London is free and Russia is not facing 15 planes anymore, they are facing 5. With the extra income for Russia, they could put a couple more planes in the air themselves to even that score a bit.
Keep in mind, Germany cannot both produce troops to hold the Russians, AND planes to replenish losses, AND replace boats destroyed by the Americans. It’s more likely that Germany has the AC, DD and 10 XPorts in the Baltic with no other ships and is frantically pushing infantry to hold back the Russians at breakneck speeds. Meanwhile, Russia with a foothold in Europe is probably keeping pace with the German Luftwaffe and is pushing infantry and armor into SE Europe themselves. Perhaps even going so far as dropping a complex with access to the Med Sea for more NOs by taking a couple Axis islands. Assuming the Allies clear the Med eventually (this complex wouldn’t be early on, I am thinking around turn 8 or 9 perhaps.)
@Cmdr:
The will lose a LOT of planes over London, and their fleet will consist of mostly transports with a few extra boats. May cost CinCATLANTIC’s fleet, but that can be rebuilt faster than Germany can get new boats in the water. Meanwhile, London is free and Russia is not facing 15 planes anymore, they are facing 5.
If Germany is a good player, he/she would never do a sea lion to only have 5 planes and one tank left. At that point, Germany would use a different strategy….
12 Planes at start
I don’t think that’s unreasonable expectations. Â You COULD save some here or there, but you COULD lose more here or there as well. Â (with 6 AA Guns to deal wit, at 3 shots each, it’s not too hard to imagine more an 3 planes getting lost to AA Gun fire somewhere.)
I am also assuming no new planes are purchased in the first two rounds, as all IPC are accounted for in creating the defense fleet on round 1, and the transport fleet on round 2. Note, I used the term “a lot of planes” because 3 or 4 lost over London is 25-33% of their starting planes, which is a significant percentage.
@Cmdr:
The will lose a LOT of planes over London, and their fleet will consist of mostly transports with a few extra boats. May cost CinCATLANTIC’s fleet, but that can be rebuilt faster than Germany can get new boats in the water. Meanwhile, London is free and Russia is not facing 15 planes anymore, they are facing 5.
If Germany is a good player, he/she would never do a sea lion to only have 5 planes and one tank left. At that point, Germany would use a different strategy….
I wouldn’t do SL indeed with those figures.
I’m curious though, what is the break-even point for you guys to abandon SL with the axis?
For me personally it’s 15 units surviving. Below that I don’t deem SL worthy and above that number of units I’m not giving it a second thought as well, but for different reasons ;-).
Why are the odds 1/1 for losing a plane in France? In addition, even if I only have 8 planes left to fly over London, the odds of losing 3 are not very good. I know there are 6 aa guns there, but the most shots fired at each plane is 1/plane – so, there are only 8 shots in that scenario, not 18…
EDIT: Aren’t there only 5 aa guns there??
I added the French gun to the list of total AA Guns.
Even if Germany gets lucky and has 7 or 8 planes left, they don’t have enough to deal with England, America and Russia and protect their fleet and mount a resistance of any force in England to resist liberation, or to help in Africa. They just don’t have the movement points for all of that.
I still think it’s safe to assume, as the German player, I only have 5 or 6 planes left and make a strategy accordingly. Just like as the German player, I have to assume Russia will not lose a single plane the entire game until we mount an attack on Moscow itself or that I can ever have a submarine in the N. Atlantic while he US is at war and not throwing off an invasion of t’s mainland.
In other words, I assume the worst plausible situation for the argument, and the argument is that Germany can take London and France and not get steam rolled by the allies in the process.
@Cmdr:
The will lose a LOT of planes over London, and their fleet will consist of mostly transports with a few extra boats. May cost CinCATLANTIC’s fleet, but that can be rebuilt faster than Germany can get new boats in the water. Meanwhile, London is free and Russia is not facing 15 planes anymore, they are facing 5.
If Germany is a good player, he/she would never do a sea lion to only have 5 planes and one tank left. At that point, Germany would use a different strategy….
I wouldn’t do SL indeed with those figures.
I’m curious though, what is the break-even point for you guys to abandon SL with the axis?For me personally it’s 15 units surviving. Below that I don’t deem SL worthy and above that number of units I’m not giving it a second thought as well, but for different reasons ;-).
What do you buy first turn with Germany to get 15 units surviving?
If it is a carrier and two transports, then my question is are those units worth it later if you can’t go sea lion? In other words is it a better buy than 6 art and 2 inf vs Russia?
(…)
What do you buy first turn with Germany to get 15 units surviving?If it is a carrier and two transports, then my question is are those units worth it later if you can’t go sea lion? In other words is it a better buy than 6 art and 2 inf vs Russia?
If you’d asked me this half a year ago I would have said 7art. Just that. Save 2IPCs and get Germany to 70IPCs for G2. I’d then surprise-SL if the UK makes a mistake (allowing G3 SL to have >=15 units surviving), buying 10TRS G2. Surely the 11 TRS will be dead without proper protection, but (is my rationale) I would loose them anyway versus a USA that makes it priority 1 to kill them during SL.
Currently I see an opportunistic German player can do great things with a fleetbuy G1. If I’d want to keep the option of a SL open I’d defeinately go for that CV + 2 TRS (CV + DD + Sub is great as well but for other purposes since as the UK I wouldn’t be extra alarmed for SL-options).
The CV + TRS are definately worth it later on if SL is made too risky. Half a year ago I wouldn’t have believed that but recent experience opened my eyes ;-).
There’s two things Germany can do that makes a CV + 2TRS worth it if SL won’t be launched:
Take/reinforce Gibraltar, combining with Italy if UK makes certain mistakes. This is not for keeping the Rock but for seriously delaying the USA and UK to establish a threat in Western Europe. Meanwhile, Germany can focus on Russia a couple of turns more, making up for the lost threat due to first turn fleetbuys. The most rosy scenario is that Germany can move the complete Kriegsmarine into the med but that is not guaranteed to succeed…
If SL and the above are not possible/deemed worth it (especially with an early JDOW), the warships can still be used as blockers (sacrifical or not) against the USA to delay its entry into Western Europe, again buying 1 or 2 more turns to focus on Russia (USA cannot invade if blocked off). In this case, it won’t be more than 2 turns but it still makes up for the G1 fleetbuy. In short, a G1 fleetbuy, if used properly, can move the timewindow for an assault on Moscow a couple of turns forwards. So G6 Moscow becomes G7 Moscow (if at all possible).
It may look like a waste to use the kriegsmarine as sacrifical blockers (even the CV if need be -stripped down of aircraft, ofc), but if Moscow is the target and it gets the job done its trading the fleet for Moscow… The alternative is cowering the kriegsmarine @ Leningrad, hoping you get a chance to strike back on an allied mistake.
Anyway, with the above plan in mind, this should give the UK/USA a more than usual difficult time defending the first couple of turns, as they go before Italy (which can thus react and dive into weak spots). Also depending on the dice ofc, it is a difficult task for the UK to defend London + Gibraltar + Egypt. The latter is less important in this scenario because the UK has the option to retreat from Egypt, planning to take it back 1 or 2 turns after Italy dives into it.
I agree with you. Buying fleet the first turn forces an all out buy for the defense of London, and thus helps Italy out.
IMHO, Germany gets Aircraft Carrier, Destroyer and either 2 infantry or 1 artillery on round 1. Round 2 is 10 transports.
Then there are losses in Normandy, France and other territories round 1. More losses round 2. I’d be surprised to see more than 3 or 4 ground units left in London after Germany takes it. Meanwhile, yes, Italy has less resistance in N. Africa, but it has infinitely more resistance in Europe from infantry pushed in by Russia.
Just my opinion, but I do not see a winning game for Germany/Italy if they take London early. They MIGHT be able to draw some American over-reaction and hope Japan can win, but I doubt we’d see a VC win by the Axis in Europe.
I agree with you CJ.
There can be some reasons for the Axis to do it. AFAIK:
1). London is virtually left open for the attack. Take London with so many survivors that the USA can’t liberate London because that would be the over-reaction mentionend.
2). Your opponent is completely unknown with this scenario (know thy enemy). It is easy to make mistakes in this scenario, on both sides, so if you feel Germany has the upper hand in experience with it (lots of practice?) you just invite the allies to make mistakes.
3). Please your Italian ally with a better shot at Africa/ME (hopefully ;-)).
4). Germany just feels like it is fun to do. Do something different for a chance…
For me personally, reasons 2, 3 & 4 will never be enough. Reason 1 must Always be true first.
But whatever the reasons may be, Japan will have to come to the rescue or be the one who ends the game with a sudden 6VC victory. Euro-axis won’t be in any shape to do it.
@Cmdr:
IMHO, Germany gets Aircraft Carrier, Destroyer and either 2 infantry or 1 artillery on round 1. Round 2 is 10 transports.
Then there are losses in Normandy, France and other territories round 1. More losses round 2. I’d be surprised to see more than 3 or 4 ground units left in London after Germany takes it. Meanwhile, yes, Italy has less resistance in N. Africa, but it has infinitely more resistance in Europe from infantry pushed in by Russia.
Just my opinion, but I do not see a winning game for Germany/Italy if they take London early. They MIGHT be able to draw some American over-reaction and hope Japan can win, but I doubt we’d see a VC win by the Axis in Europe.
Do you always buy 10 transports R2, or is that only in games where you will win the battle in London with at least 15 units left?
I’m not sure CJ uses this 15 units ‘rule of thumb’. Curious too, to know though ;-).
I wonder who else has given it some thought and where other people’s break even points are, considering to launch or not to launch [SL].
I think those 15 units surviving can even be relaxed a bit (maybe even down to just ~10) if the USA is nowhere near. May be the case if the USA is focusing on the Pacific, ‘forgetting’ to build any TRS for invasions at all…
But anyway, for me personally, I’d only build the ‘surprise’ 10TRS if G3 will give me London with a satisfying number of troops -without the need to sacrifice any more luftwaffe besides the planes that will be shot down by AAA-guns.
There is no kill, like over kill. That’s always been my mentality for capitol hits, at least.
Anyway, I agree, if London is under protected then it only makes sense to go for it. Not sure if I would dedicate 13 transports to it on round 2 - that to me does not sound optimal for Germany unless they are sacrificing virgins to the dice gods, anyway. In my opinion, a London sack on round 3 is enticing the Russians to colonize Europe and set up permanent residences there. Sure Italy might have an easier time (and honestly, I think I have a solution to that problem as well, so even if London falls, Italy isn’t getting N. Africa let alone Central or South Africa) it does not make up for the huge shift of IPC into Russian hands and away from Germany (a combined total of something like -12 IPC Germany + 12 IPC Russia + 36 NO Russia is a 60 IPC swing in Russia’s favor mind you…not that it will happen over night, but I see it happen in London sacks all the time. Saw it at GenCon over the weekend FFS. TWICE!)
Now, am I saying under no circumstances hit London? Not at all. On round 6-9 London can be, and has been in numerous games, under protected so that a Luftwaffe strike with 5 or 6 transports can sack it. I’ve also seen players station the German fleet off the coast of Gibraltar and take Washington DC while convincing the allies that they were going Sea Lion. Not advocating a Kill USA first strategy either, but hell, if they only leave 6 ground units there and you have 30 of them in N. Africa/Gibraltar why not!?!
No, I am saying it is less than optimal for Germany to set up for a Sea Lion strategy where they take London on round 3. In my opinion of course. As the allies, I would entice them to attack by leaving troops there that have London marginally under-defended. In this way I hope to do so much damage to the German war machine that Russia can blow through them like a sandblaster blows through a soup cracker!
Yes I think in short, if the allies keep their heads cool and don’t panic, SL will always be a sub-optimal strategy whose success largely depends on made allied mistakes. As it should be!
@Cmdr:
(…) In my opinion, a London sack on round 3 is enticing the Russians to colonize Europe and set up permanent residences there.
I do so agree with that. I have however, found out that Germany can (barely, but still) keep the Russians from permanently colonizing Eastern Europe if G1 they do not build any fleet units but lots of troops and G2 they build 10TRS to take London with. No more fleetbuys after that. Italy also needs to send more than a few defenders for Hungary. This is only doable with allied mistakes during UK1/2, ofc. Over time, Germany can even start pushing back the Russians but only if the luftwaffe largely survived SL and goes east, not west (defending London). Moscow will be unreachable however, as Russia can make a permanent stand around the Pripjet marshes.
Sure Italy might have an easier time (and honestly, I think I have a solution to that problem as well, so even if London falls, Italy isn’t getting N. Africa let alone Central or South Africa) it does not make up for the huge shift of IPC into Russian hands and away from Germany (a combined total of something like -12 IPC Germany + 12 IPC Russia + 36 NO Russia is a 60 IPC swing in Russia’s favor mind you…not that it will happen over night, but I see it happen in London sacks all the time. Â Saw it at GenCon over the weekend FFS. Â TWICE!) Â
Interesting! Care to share that solution? Will Russia go into Africa or do you have the USA go there/threaten Rome so Italy can’t have Africa? UK can’t produce anymore but I know for a fact they’re certainly not dead in this region and Italy needs some blood, sweat and tears in Eastern Europe as well… Way I did it so far has always been by liberating London so UK started to produce in Africa/ME again and I remember those were stressfull times for the allies in Africa!
Now, am I saying under no circumstances hit London? Â Not at all. Â On round 6-9 London can be, and has been in numerous games, under protected so that a Luftwaffe strike with 5 or 6 transports can sack it. Â I’ve also seen players station the German fleet off the coast of Gibraltar and take Washington DC while convincing the allies that they were going Sea Lion. Â Not advocating a Kill USA first strategy either, but hell, if they only leave 6 ground units there and you have 30 of them in N. Africa/Gibraltar why not!?!
I bet this has been with barely any US investments in Europe -or even none at all? This, like a G3 SL, also seems to depend primarily on certain allied mistakes.
I find Sealion r3 is best combined with an India r3 crush.
(complicated move, but it involves buying harbour and airfield dowing r2, and should put 6art,6inf,11fgt 8tac and 2bmb into India jap r3 with the possibility of mec and tank blitzing in from Yunnan if not blocked) and a fast Egypt takeover by Italy.
Now Russia has to guard middle east as there is a vacuume of allied units there, forcing them to be much less effective against Germany. And for USA to counter India crush they have to be almost 100% investing in pacific the early rounds, which again slows them down from affecting the Kriegsmarine.
And tip, don’t ever do sealion r4, or youll see a good soviet player camping in Romania indefinitely.
You dont HAVE to buy navy round 1 to sealion. One strategy is to simply buy nothing and let UK deside how to coop with Germany having 96 in buypower r2. If they go soft on defence its a kill, if not you can buy something like 10 tank, 8mec and 2 inf and youll be just as good of as if you bought say 6inf and 3art r1.
Africa solution is a combo of bid units, moved units and India assistance. There is a chance you might lose India in which case you will definitely keep pressure up in the Pacific with the United States, but it’s not a huge chance of losing India - just a chance. Many would hesitate if it meant losing India was a chance at all.
As for Japan/Russia, I think people often under-estimate the amount of time it takes to slog through China and NE Russia and/or the Middle East. Especially if the Germans are being hemmed in by trading grey territories (a trade that always helps Russia more than Germany) and Italy being constrained to North Central Africa. Keep in mind, Japan can’t just ignore the Pacific anymore than the United States can, so there is a drain on their resources there as well. I can see an argument that Japan can afford even less than the United States to ignore the Pacific since there is the ability of the United States to can open for India and Australia but very little ability for Japan to can open at all.
That would have to be a pretty hefty allied mistake to allow Germany to build 10 transports T2 and take T3 for a favorable take. At most you would be able to attack with 22 ground 1 bombard and 9 planes. Most German attacks now a days that build all ground T1 don’t attack Normandy, so unless you saved 2 you would only be able to build 9 transports.
