Something just popped to my mind about G1.
On 1st Edition the standard G1 attacks (UK fleet, Egypt, etc) usually consist of:
- Retaking Ukraine (+90%) and Karelia
- UK DD on Egypt SZ (+90%)
- UK Cruiser on Med (+90%)
- Egypt (+90%)
- UK Atlantic fleet (+90%)
Which, when you combined odds of all winning all attacks gives you overall odds for G1 of close to 66% (or at least 2/3 that G1 will go as planned).
But on 2nd Edition there’s a substantial difference on the combined odds if you add the G1 Egypt attack:
- Retaking Soviet territories (+90%)
- UK DD on Egypt SZ (+90%)
- UK Cruiser on Med (+90%)
- UK Atlantic fleet (+90%)
- US Atlantic fleet (+90%)
- Egypt (+75%)
Or: (100/90)(100/90)(100/90)(100/90)(100/90)*(100/75) = +/-44%
So, if the Allies let Germany attack Egypt and if Germany chooses to do so, then German odds for winning all attacks as expected on G1 drop to less than half. And that most likely opens opportunities for the UK to exploit from failed attacks.
Something for the Soviet/Allied player to consider before sending that fighter to Egypt…