Sealion Version 1.0

@jim010:

You have to take into account the number of dice you are throwing as well if you want to be technical, as each throw is its own event.  Also, the more dice you through in a battel, the more liely the outcome will be normalized.

Are we looking at counters to this or the odds?  I’m here to look at counters.

If something has a less than 50% chance and losing that set of moves will lose the game, then there need not be a counter.

C&H-liker

If Germany can expect to see success of a sealion in about half the games by round 3, 42% isn’t low odds, it’s actually very good odds considering the number of independent battles involved. In A&A I’d take almost ANY battle with a 75% chance of success (especially, as with G1 there are NO good counterattack options against these individual attacks), and if it meant a capital capture on the 3rd round, 70% is huge.

And even if one of the attacks fails, Germany hasn’t especially wasted anything if it can get past the first round (especially as the first turn buy is still fairly strong, strong enough to force Britain’s hand). If Germany loses a critical battle in G1, it’s unlikely Germany will try for a Sealion, but it’s not in bad shape for Russia or helping in Africa.

But if Germany gets past the round 1 gambit, the UK will probably lose to the Sealion, which means Germany should more often than not start with those moves, and based on the 60% chance of winning the attacks proposed by Jim, will more often than not invest in a navy for G3 sealion.

In about half the games, Germany will pull off a sealion per that strat. In the other games their G2 is as strong as pretty much any other and they’re not locked into anything.

Britain needs a strat to reduce the likelyhood of the 70% sealion G3 sealion, not praying for Germany to get diced on G1. Or we need verification that the Sealion strategy doesn’t have enough momentum for Russia later. Right now, @ 42%, any smart German player will do that, because I suspect there isn’t a higher percentage of success that nets THAT much for Germany in ANY other combination of moves.

42% is HUGE. not small.

I’ll take you up on it Jim, not low luck but dice.  I have some ideas, such as SZ 113 being not safe for your transports.  Other than that I’m not 100% sure of the counters.

The reason I say dice is simply that some strats that are broken in low luck, are not broken in dice due to odds of one or two important close battles.  While in the India Crush scenario this is unimportant due to the overwhelming odds, in the case of the J1 Pearl strike in oob setup it does play a huge role, to use examples.  As far as counters go I’m not really sure.  Does the US have to forces to liberate?  Can russia get nutty?  Its all up in the air a bit.

Lastly, I wouldn’t be the quickest player, mostly on weekends, usually 1 turn a day during the week but not always.  Go ahead and start one/post map if you like.

I assumed as much, I have ideas though.  Possibly not good ones but I do have them.

@jim010:

Also, Calvin,

I will try not to come across as pushy or defensive in the future.  I like playing you, and look forward to friendly games again.  You didn’t say I was this way, but reading my posts, I certainly think I was.

No worries, anyone would be defensive when their ideas that they worked hard on to develop are dismissed in a single post

Game I played Germany did not commit all aircraft to sea battles so UK was able to attack German fleet with CV, Tac, 3 Fighters, DD.

Germany also did not buy SS only CV + TT’s. UK rolled fairly well and so Germany was left with BB (dmg) and UK 1 fighter.

Germany did not Sealion (I realize now UK was wide open). Italian fleet was untouched and dominated the Med. Allies gave up when Russia was reduced to Moscow. (Axis one victory city short)

UK counter, version 1

UK1 builds: 2x Tactical Bomber
UK1 attacks: none concerning operation Sealion
UK1 moves: tactical bomber from carrier to the UK, Gibralter fleet remains stationary
UK1 placements: 2x tactical bomber in the UK

UK2 attacks: Gibraltar fleet + UK air-force attack SZ112

The battle!

UK: carrier + destroyer + 3x fighter + 3x tactical bomber

Versus

Germany: submarine + carrier + cruiser + tactical bomber + fighter + battleship

Round 1: UK scores 23 pips = 4 hits v. Germany scores 17 pips = 3 hits
Losses: UK carrier + destroyer v. German submarine + cruiser + 2 damaged capital ships

Round 2: UK scores 21 pips = 3 hits v. Germany scores 13 pips = 2 hits
Losses: UK fighter + tactical bomber v. German carrier + fighter + tactical bomber

Round 3: UK scores 14 pips = 2 hits v. Germany scores 4 pips = 1 hit
Losses: UK tactical bomber v. German battleship … all transports are sunk as well

Alternatively Germany can pull back the fleet to SZ113, but that allows the UK to place an easy block to delay Sealion for at least one extra turn … opening the way for more possible UK and/or US intervention and unchecked Soviet aggression in the East.

Germany can also move the cruiser to block in SZ 104 to keep the Gibraltar fleet out of it. The UK air-force can still attack the German fleet and will still win, but with more losses as well.

:evil:

jim010,
As UK (w/o knowing you planned on buying 9 TT’s) most would not feel threatened by Sea Lion (1 German TT) and take out the Italian navy (I figure your counting on this). There is the possibility (maybe 33%) to attack the fairly weak German Navy in sz 112 instead (would at least consider it then SEA Lion would be a no go, but Italians would have a big advantage in the Med until US comes over).  On UK1 I would most likely buy 2 air units for England (ftr & tac) and 2 inf (looking to attack German fleet next turn or or push them back). The Germans most likely would feel obligated to attack the UK Med fleet w/air G2 (could lose a 1-2 air units though) to keep the UK from finishing off the Italians. Now if I have 5 air units on UK (and most the Italian fleet sunk), you can’t buy just 9 TT’s, you have to maybe buy a carrier to protect them (or a couple DD’s still $16 ipc’s). So now you can only buy 6 TT’s + the 2 you have is 8 all together (can still bring over 16 ground units ouch). On UK’s turn it could still attack the German fleet, but odds are very low w/carrier build. UK forgoes the fleet attack, brings over the Canadians (if it didn’t already), and buys 10 inf (could buy 7 inf & DD to stop bombardment I guess not sure what would be better, but will figure 10 inf build). It now has 16 ground units, 5 air units + the AA gun. German has the 16 ground units, 5-6 air units (assuming it lost 2-3 in the Med or original UK navy onslaught), + bombardment. Jim010 I don’t have an odds calculator, what is the % for Germany to win this battle (I still think its pretty high) and what would Germany have on England when the dust clears.

I have 2 questions

1. How does Germany handle a very powerful Russia if it does go through with SEA Lion (all fleet). Normally as Russia seeing German fleet builds I would start building some air units as well as a ton of ground. By time Germany & Russia is at war the Russian air force would be bigger. When Germany goes for the kill on UK I would also build a couple subs in the Baltic (maybe in sz 127 as well just in case). So it would be hard to get that fairly weak German fleet back to a Russian coast line w/o even more German ship builds. Russia w/air & subs can be quite effective, especially if it builds those subs when Germany is out of range w/o DD’s.

2. The USA will be coming. If you are successful w/Sea Lion, how long will you be able to def England, and the European coast line considering you haven’t bought many ground units. The ground units you do buy will have their hands full with Russia. Anything Italy manages to take in Africa (French or UK tt) will become US income down the road. The US will be poised in the Atlantic ready willing and able. At some point in the near future all those transports will end up in Davy Jones Locker by US, or Soviet hands (or both).

I just think that losing UK is over rated. By time this happens there are 2 more powers that will take its place in E40. Then its a 2 vs 2 game, and Germany is spread pretty thin. As long as UK goes down kicking and screaming, and manages to take German units with it the allies still have a chance if they are ready for it.

@Latro:

UK counter, version 1

UK1 builds: 2x Tactical Bomber
UK1 attacks: none concerning operation Sealion
UK1 moves: tactical bomber from carrier to the UK, Gibralter fleet remains stationary
UK1 placements: 2x tactical bomber in the UK

UK2 attacks: Gibraltar fleet + UK air-force attack SZ112

The battle!

UK: carrier + destroyer + 3x fighter + 3x tactical bomber

Versus

Germany: submarine + carrier + cruiser + tactical bomber + fighter + battleship

Round 1: UK scores 23 pips = 4 hits v. Germany scores 17 pips = 3 hits
Losses: UK carrier + destroyer v. German submarine + cruiser + 2 damaged capital ships

Round 2: UK scores 21 pips = 3 hits v. Germany scores 13 pips = 2 hits
Losses: UK fighter + tactical bomber v. German carrier + fighter + tactical bomber

Round 3: UK scores 14 pips = 2 hits v. Germany scores 4 pips = 1 hit
Losses: UK tactical bomber v. German battleship … all transports are sunk as well

Alternatively Germany can pull back the fleet to SZ113, but that allows the UK to place an easy block to delay Sealion for at least one extra turn … opening the way for more possible UK and/or US intervention and unchecked Soviet aggression in the East.

Germany can also move the cruiser to block in SZ 104 to keep the Gibraltar fleet out of it. The UK air-force can still attack the German fleet and will still win, but with more losses as well.

:evil:

Nice counter!!!  Seems like the only thing Germany could do is buy a crusier on G1 instead of the TT and sub- giving UK1 battle in z112 a 21-19 edge- a 50/50 nailbiter for sure!!!

So is the best UK can hope for is this 50/50 battle!!!  Win it and UK is a hero, lose it and Churchill needs to pack for Canada.

If Germany loses this battle, is it over for Germany???- maybe not, those 9 or so TT can come in handy on the Russian front by G4-just in time for DOW.

Germany foil to UK1 counter version 1

Attack SZ 106 with 1 sub ( UK has 1 DD) 2 vs. 2. 40.6% to 39.5% ( you can also bring sub to SZ 109 and get better odds, but take the bomber to SZ 111)

Attack SZ 109 1 Bomber vs. 1 DD ,4 vs. 2. 55.4% to 14% ( both die at 30.6%), alternatively: 1 SS and 1 fighter vs 1 DD  ( 92.3% vs. 3.8%)

Attack SZ 110 2 subs, 1 tactical, 1 fighter, 1 bomber vs. 1 BB, 1 DD ( should win) 99.5%

Attack SZ 111 2 subs, 1 tactical, 1 Fighter, vs. 1 BB, 1 CA ( should win) 85.7%

Attack SZ 112 1 BB, 1 tactical, 1 Fighter vs 2 CA ( should win hit on BB) 89%

Key Move: CA blocks UK Gibraltar fleet in SZ 104!

Notes:
The cruiser block in SZ  makes my BB and CV with 2 fighters protected against 3-4 of his fighters attacking on UK1  I win 80% versus his 20%

If you build anything or attack my CA, its defeated on G2

If you try to block a G2 sealion on UK west coast, we just swing over to east coast and invade other side.

@questioneer:

@Latro:

UK counter, version 1

UK1 builds: 2x Tactical Bomber
UK1 attacks: none concerning operation Sealion
UK1 moves: tactical bomber from carrier to the UK, Gibralter fleet remains stationary
UK1 placements: 2x tactical bomber in the UK

UK2 attacks: Gibraltar fleet + UK air-force attack SZ112

The battle!

UK: carrier + destroyer + 3x fighter + 3x tactical bomber

Versus

Germany: submarine + carrier + cruiser + tactical bomber + fighter + battleship

Round 1: UK scores 23 pips = 4 hits v. Germany scores 17 pips = 3 hits
Losses: UK carrier + destroyer v. German submarine + cruiser + 2 damaged capital ships

Round 2: UK scores 21 pips = 3 hits v. Germany scores 13 pips = 2 hits
Losses: UK fighter + tactical bomber v. German carrier + fighter + tactical bomber

Round 3: UK scores 14 pips = 2 hits v. Germany scores 4 pips = 1 hit
Losses: UK tactical bomber v. German battleship … all transports are sunk as well

Alternatively Germany can pull back the fleet to SZ113, but that allows the UK to place an easy block to delay Sealion for at least one extra turn … opening the way for more possible UK and/or US intervention and unchecked Soviet aggression in the East.

Germany can also move the cruiser to block in SZ 104 to keep the Gibraltar fleet out of it. The UK air-force can still attack the German fleet and will still win, but with more losses as well.

:evil:

Nice counter!!!  Seems like the only thing Germany could do is buy a crusier on G1 instead of the TT and sub- giving UK1 battle in z113 a 21-19 edge- a 50/50 nailbiter for sure!!!

So is the best UK can hope for is this 50/50 battle!!!  Win it and UK is a hero, lose it and Churchill needs to pack for Canada.

If Germany loses this battle, is it over for Germany???- maybe not, those 9 or so TT can come in handy on the Russian front by G4-just in time for DOW.

You would have the choice as UK of attacking sz 112 now, or building air to go at it UK2. If UK attacks sz 112 UK1 the Sea Lion threat may be over if the German starting navy is at the bottom.  The UK can bring the carrier in to absorb hits and kill the fleet w/dd & air UK1 (this lets the Italians off the hook). You could just sit back and build air units to take on the Germans UK2 (that’s what I would do). The Germans would be forced to buy more fleet, and fewer tpts.

@questioneer:

@Latro:

UK counter, version 1

UK1 builds: 2x Tactical Bomber
UK1 attacks: none concerning operation Sealion
UK1 moves: tactical bomber from carrier to the UK, Gibralter fleet remains stationary
UK1 placements: 2x tactical bomber in the UK

UK2 attacks: Gibraltar fleet + UK air-force attack SZ112

The battle!

UK: carrier + destroyer + 3x fighter + 3x tactical bomber

Versus

Germany: submarine + carrier + cruiser + tactical bomber + fighter + battleship

Round 1: UK scores 23 pips = 4 hits v. Germany scores 17 pips = 3 hits
Losses: UK carrier + destroyer v. German submarine + cruiser + 2 damaged capital ships

Round 2: UK scores 21 pips = 3 hits v. Germany scores 13 pips = 2 hits
Losses: UK fighter + tactical bomber v. German carrier + fighter + tactical bomber

Round 3: UK scores 14 pips = 2 hits v. Germany scores 4 pips = 1 hit
Losses: UK tactical bomber v. German battleship … all transports are sunk as well

Alternatively Germany can pull back the fleet to SZ113, but that allows the UK to place an easy block to delay Sealion for at least one extra turn … opening the way for more possible UK and/or US intervention and unchecked Soviet aggression in the East.

Germany can also move the cruiser to block in SZ 104 to keep the Gibraltar fleet out of it. The UK air-force can still attack the German fleet and will still win, but with more losses as well.

:evil:

Nice counter!!!  Seems like the only thing Germany could do is buy a crusier on G1 instead of the TT and sub- giving UK1 battle in z112 a 21-19 edge- a 50/50 nailbiter for sure!!!

So is the best UK can hope for is this 50/50 battle!!!  Win it and UK is a hero, lose it and Churchill needs to pack for Canada.

If Germany loses this battle, is it over for Germany???- maybe not, those 9 or so TT can come in handy on the Russian front by G4-just in time for DOW.

The z104 block definitely makes the odds worse for Germany- won’t work- period.

After looking at this in detail on the board, the BEST Germany can do is buy a CV and CA (instead of the SS and TT) in G1 to place on z112.

There is a way to rotate the subs in their respective battles so that you can get a sub to z112.  In that case, Germany has a SS,BB 2CA and 1CV with 2ftrs= 21 hits pts. vs. UK with 3tac, 3ftrs, 1CV, 1DD= 23 hit pts.  Germany has 2 double hit ships, UK has only 1.  This literally makes this battle on z112 in UK1 a 50/50 battle!!!

The success of Sealion solely rests on a coinflip in z112 on UK1!!!

Now the questions arise:

1. If Germany wins, Sealion succeeds and will it be over for the Allies??? or can they still come back.  Germany will have $$$ and so will Italy since UK had to use the Med force to stop Sealion.

2. If UK wins, is it over for Germany???  They may be able to swing those 10TT the other way and pound Russia instead.

In either case, one is very tempted to pull the Sealion trigger if they are playing Germany.  Its definitely a gambit, one that can pay off good dividends for the Axis.

In Global, if Sealion succeeds, now the US has to pull in more money on the Euro side than it wants to.  That’s great news for Japan who would like to overrun the Pacific.  If I’m Japan and Sealion succeeds, I either continue to plow towards India or attack the Hawaiian Islands to make the US indecisive with how to spend its cash.  US spending and moving effieciently is a key to winning for the Allies in all AA games.

This stuff really makes you think.