I looked at the G40 map and I noticed that Malaya has a pretty decent IPC value (3), which goes nicely with the DEI islands of Borneo, Sumatra and Java (4 each) and Celebes (3). The total value of those five pieces of real estate is 18 IPCs, which makes them important in themselves, and they become even more important if we use the adjustment table factor we discussed: with a US oil embargo in place, Japan’s IPCs get adjusted downward more and more with every round unless it takes and holds the DEI. So Japan would have strong economic reasons to grab the DEI and fight for them at all costs. An additional rubber-from-Malaya bonus/penalty adjustment could be thrown in too, if desired, as a bit of extra motivational icing on the cake.
Now for the missing piece of the puzzle: giving the US a strong reason to go to war against Japan and fight actively in the Asia-Pacific theatre rather than just letting Japan romp all over the area while the US attends to the more pressing matter of Nazi Germany in Europe. Thanks to LHoffman for pointing out that the going-to-war part is a virtual certainty under the OOB political rules, which solves half the problem. As for the strong-reason-to-fight part, I’ve had an idea that I’d like to float for consideration. As what’s proposed above for Japan, it’s meant to make it financially disadvantageous for the US to simply sit around in a technical state of war without actively fighting.
The proposal is in two parts, but both parts hinge on the same assumption: that the US can only get the full benefits of a fully mobilized wartime economy if the American public is strongly motivated to support the war effort. This is a credible premise because that’s exactly why the American public: a) abandoned isolationism and supported Roosevelt and Congress in declaring war against Japan after Pearl Harbor; b) went along with the call-up of men into the armed services and the call-up of women into the shipyards and factories; c) went along – though with some grumbling, especially as regards gasoline for their cars – with rationing and other privations; and d) contributed an awful lot of money to the war effort by buying war bonds.
Part one of the proposal has to do with the state of war in and of itself. Even though a DoW is virtually guaranteed onder the OOB rules, it doesn’t hurt to give things a little (actually a big) nudge in the right direction. So here’s the idea: the US can (obviously) only shift to a wartime economy if it goes to war, but it can only shift to a full wartime economy if it goes to war against both Japan and the European Axis powers. The rationale is simple: being at war against both Japan and the Germany/Italy pairing is a far bigger crisis than being at war just in the Pacific or just in Europe, so it’s easier to convince the public that a far greater effort is needed. Therefore: If the US is at war against Japan alone, it can only ramp up to x% of its potential full wartime economy (x being significantly smaller than 100). If the US is at war against Germany/Italy alone, it can only ramp up to y% of its potential full wartime economy (y being significantly smaller than 100). Only if it’s at war against all the Axis power can it ramp up to 100% of its potential full wartime economy.
Now for part two, which has to do with the need to fight aggressively. Here’s the idea: unless the US fights actively on both fronts, on a fairly constant basis, it won’t be able to maintain its full wartime economy. The rationale is that the workers and the bond-buyers on the home front have to be kept motivated by a sense of urgency, and by the feeling that the weapons they’re building and financing are being put to good use in active combat. A great example of this sort of thing was the motivational wartime documentary Angel in Overalls – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhVikLVKWVU – which was made “for the men and women of American industry”. It shows an isolated and damaged American bomber over Germany facing gim odds against some German fighters, until a P-38 Lightning charges to the rescue and blasts the enemy planes out of the air.
This part of the economic adjustment table would, in essence, deduct points from the US wartime economy if the Americans aren’t actively fighting on one of their two fronts…and would deduct even more if they’re not fighting actively on either front. “Fighting actively” would have to be defined, of course, but here’s the neat part: it’s the “fighting actively” part that would matter, not whether the Americans are winning or losing. News that the troops are fighting a winning war can be a great motivator on the home front (“Angel in Overalls” basically tells factory workers: “The fighter planes you build are saving Americans boys in combat, so please keep up the good work and build even more”), but news that the troops have suffered a grave defeat and are desperate for weapons can be a powerful motivator too (as British workers proved after Dunkirk and Russian workers proved in the second half of 1941).
Getting the US to fight actively in this way will go a long way to keeping Japan occupied (and away from Russia), so that’s already a big help. Is there a way to motivate the British to likewise fight actively in the Asia/Pacfic theatre? This will require more thought, but one option would be to make use of the fact that India was: a) enormously important to the British economy; and b) politically restless, and under active attempts at Japanese political subversion; and c) under direct threat once Japan had invaded Burma. So, to apply here a formula similar to the one above for the US, the UK might get IPC points deducted owing to restlessness in India unless it can show the population of India that it’s fighting actively against Japan (including nearby in Burma).