the odds for taking West Russia are 95%
you can check it by yourself or using the Proton Battle Sim
so forget German units in West Russia and the taking of Caucaus
I’ll let Tri do the breakdown of the net probabioity of the 3 combined battles. He is rather good at those. But with one of those already being “risky”, then the overall chance of all 3 succeeding becomes “poor”.
Taking Caucuses w/ West Russia was based on the original combat that started this thread (2 attacks, Ukraine and Eastern).
Your combat spread appears even thinner at first glance, even if all are successful. All 3 attacks can be strongly countered, even West Russia usign AF (risking the AA fire) and the Belo INF. And that would leave Russia with basically no offesnive forces (1 FIG).
Lastly, you are leaving the back door open by pulling the Evenk, Novo and Kazakh INF west. That leaves you only 6 INF total to defend against Japan, and none to reinforce Sinkiang before it can be hit in J2. Japan will ahve forces in 1 or more territories of the E/N/K perimter by J3, unless you are planning IC’s by either US or UK, further allowign Germany to focus on tearing through those paper thin Russian front lines in force.
That´s the problem about Russia.
It is able to do really much damage to Germany in R1-2, but if it really does it´s itself doomed in most games.
i am sorry switch but as i said before i dont need ofensive strength
i will buy inf only and defend the best i can
your Germany cant take my Moscow before 7th turn, maybe not even than
and Japan will have enormous losses fighting in the mainland,agaisnst US and UK navy
tell me what here is not possible
Well, to start, by losing offensive strength, you lose your ability to trade territories with Germany. If Russia maintains some offensive force, they can get paid for Ukraine for a few rounds and hold West Russia for a long time. They can also get into trading Belo and Karelia with Germany. That preserves Russia’s income, and keeps them building 8+ units per round.
By losing your offensive punch after R1, you can;t trade anymore. After you get paid for Eastern, West Russia, and Ukraine on R1, that is it. From there, every territory Germany takes is permamently lost income.
Within a few turns, Germany has liberated everything Russia took initially, and they hold Karelia, Archangel and Caucuses. That last one is pretty serious since it give Germany a 4 unit IC adjacent to Moscow, and that can flow troops to and through both Persia and Kazakh.
By blowing all of Russia’s offensive power on R1, you get one good round of income, then are quickly reduced to an income of 8, 10, or 12…. about 3-4 INF per turn. And that is before SBR’s.
As for fleets against Japan… that takes a few rounds to set up… rounds that allow Japan to get a LOT of forces into asia first… enough to kill those 6 eastern Russia INF, and take Bury, SFE, Yakut, Evenk, Novo and Kazakh. That is the final nail for Russia. once pinned down to that low of an income, it is a war of attrition that can only be blocked by massive infusions of AF by the Allies… and that also means the end of Allied ships in the Pacific. Allies cannot afford landings in Europe AND AF to defend Moscow AND ships to attack Japan. They can do 1 well, 2 poorly, and all 3 not at all.
Again, my opinion, YMMV.
There are several problems:
Without a little bit offensive strength you can´t even take back Caucasus and Germany has an IC right under Stalin´s nose.
The Uk needs some time to establish a functioning transport rute to Moscow whitch can´t be destroyed by Germany.
I´ve already seen many games where the Allies split their forces too much between Jap+Ger and don´t really make neither KGF nor KJF sufficently and loose pretty fast.
The Ruskys are destroying a mayor part of their (and also a big part of the German army) but the Germans can rebuild this army much faster.
Your tactic relys on too much luck in the whole, one big lost battle in the beginning is enough to blow it to pieces, it´s true that in each battle you have a chance above 50% to win, but I´ve lost even battles where my chances were much higher.
But after all I wouldn´t say that it´s nonsense and I think that it works against some enemies(, if it works at all).
But if you switch the attack to Ukraine/Finland you don’t loose any fighters and you preserve one of the tanks you would have lost in E. Europe by counter attack, Switch.
So really, what’s the difference in scenario? You loose Archangelsk and Karelia on G1. You get strafed in Moscow on G1. But that’s about it. Meanwhile, you’ve cost the germans 33% of their fighters making it even riskier for them to put together a carrier and fighter cover for the baltic fleet. (Riskier in that now if they’re attacked by a significant British fleet, even with the loss of all british forces, they’d loose another 3rd of their air force.)
I could see, with that Russian move, a Germany with only 2 fighters and a bomber for cover. The bomber most likely in Africa. Americans piling into Africa, because they can, and now a Germany desperately depleted of air cover, financial income and looking at a wall of Russian infantry supported by a couple fighter squadrons and a british navy being rebuilt/reassembled.
Of course, one might suggest that you only send the fighter to Kwangtung on UK1, move the DD, TRN and AC down the cape of Africa to make a stronger british fleet.
Unless I’m missing something. But I don’t think so. Also, you’re going on the assumption now that there is a Russian fighter lost. With the change, you no longer need to pull the Russian fighter from Moscow, which means you have plenty of fuel to land in safe zones.
3 Inf, 1 Fighter from Karelia to Finland/Norway
1 Armor from Archangelsk to Finland/Norway
2 Armor, 1 Fighter from Russia to Ukraine
3 Infantry, 1 Artillery, 1 Armor from Caucasus to Ukraine
2 Infantry from Archangelsk to West. Russia (* 1 Infantry to be used as blitz blocker in Karelia during NCM)
3 Infantry, 1 Artillery from Russia to West Russia
(West Russia is a strafe. Objective kill 2 German infantry, retreat to Russia.)
And I retake Norway with TRN forces, take Karelia in force, liberate Ukraine.
The problem with norway is that, unlike any other attack made by Russia, it leaves forces completely stranded, and allows for the teritory to the rear of them to fall in the same round that Norway is liberated. In every other Russian attack, advancement means slowing the enemy. Norway does not achieve that.
You are REALLY placing a lot of emphasis on killing those FIGs, to the detriment of Russia’s long term goals.
Hell, I am still not 100% convinced that killing the FIRST FIG in Ukraine is worth it when you can make such a sweet attack on Belo instead and have a very nice WRS, and a well defended Caucuses… and not lose a single ART, ARM or FIG on R1.
My assumption, as stated in the original post, was that there was a 6 IPC bid of 2 german infantry in Belo.
Also, you would loose Finland, i agree. But you’d only loose a tank there. You’re going to loose Karelia anyway. You either have Ukraine and loose it next round or you never have it and give Germany a free fighter. (And a strong setup for an attack on Caucasus.)
If all you do is W. Russia, and you put everything there, Germany can take Caucasus, steal the AA gun (hell, i would, unlimited SBRs with no reprisals on a Russia IC?) and still take Karelia with even more forces then if they had to liberate Finland.
Basically, I’m looking for a way to deplete MORE germans then I loose russians. Thus, making it easier on England and America to step in and finish crushing them while i build mountains of infantry and artillery (to be later turned on Japan, should they be foolish enough to try and continue play after Germany falls.)
What in the world are you doing that Germany can take Caucuses on G1, even if you don;t attack Ukraine???
Well, I assumed you meant take ALL available units and attack West Russia with them.
That means, at most, you have 2 fighters, 6 infantry in Caucasus.
Germany can attack that with:
4 Infantry, 4 Armor, 1 Artillery, 1 Bomber, 1 Battleship and 5 Fighters.
I think we’re talking about the complete and utter destruction of Caucasus with the loss of, probably, 4 German infantry. (20 defensive points / 6 = 3.33 hits, I rounded up.)
yes, you’ll loose those 3 armor, 1 infantry and 1 artillery on the counter strike. But, you’ve taken an AA gun, you’ve prevented Russia from building in that zone for a turn and you’ve really not lost that much in way of units. Not if you build conservatively. (not to mention, you can still take Karelia and consolidate forces against Russia’s main attack line.)
But you’ve played this version more then I. Am I missing something? The theory IS to go heavy in W. Russia to prevent the maximum number of damage received, but that ties up your forces there.
Eeh gads no!
WRS is about 7 INF, 2 ART, 3 ARM (if you do Belo) or 7 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM (if you do Ukraine).
Caucuses has 8 or so INF and 2 FIGs (or more, depending on build).
Go ahead, let Germany hit that…
I did some moving around. G can hit CAU with 4 INF, 1 ART, 2 ARM, 1 FTR and 1 BOM on round 1 if it passes on EGY. G still has lots left to get EE and UKR back (depending on the dice) assuming 2 INF from bid in Belo.
Now I didn’t run it with the 3 MOS INF reinforcing CAU only with (6 INF and 1 FTR) FTR going there instead of MOS and having 2 from KAZ and 4 from R1 build. It is only a 21% chance for Germany to lose all land units according to 1000 rolls on frood (if I’m reading it right.)So 6 INF, 1 FTR for Russia in CAU vs. 4 INF, 2 ARM, 1 ART, 1 FTR and 1 BOM. I did not figure in Shore Bombardment or AA but that isn’t bad chance at pretty much destroying the Russian war machine and collectinf 46 IPCs.
I didn’t figure the other battles but you could hit KAR with 6 INF and 1 ARM (vs 3 INF and 1 FTR), EE with 2 ARM, 3 INF Â and UKR with 4 INF and 2 ARM. Now you would need to rethink that depending on the R1 dice. You also can still hit the UK BB while doing that.
The plan as orginally designed Jennifer is fraught with peril. I don’t see it getting much better. I have 11 INF and 1 ART in MOS in the above scenario. I suppose it would depend on how much Russia has left in EE and UKR.
You don’t need Africa if you are that close to MOS.
I have:
3 Infantry, 1 Artillery, 1 Armor from Ukraine to Caucasus
1 Armor, 1 Infantry, 1 Battleship from S. Europe
1 Armor from Balkans
1 Armor from E. Europe
6 Fighters from all over Europe and a Bomber from Germany that can hit Cauc on R1 if you do not take Ukraine. (This assumes no forces in W. Russia)
That’s 3 Infantry, 1 Artillery, 4 Armor, 6 Fighters, 1 Bomber vs what ever’s in Caucasus on G1.
Basically, I’m looking for a way to deplete MORE germans then I loose russians.
I think, Jen, that the 3-way attack is for you as long as the bid isn’t in Europe. If you’re into Low-Luck, you can make a huge dent in the Germans. You have really just about 100% in both Ukraine and West Russia, and 89% in Belorussia (93% if mutual destruction is OK with you). It’s nearly guaranteed that you wiped out 9 German inf, 2 art, 2 arm, and 1 fighter. You lose just about as many inf and 1 art, but that’s it for the immediate round, so the trade is in your favor. You will probably lose all of your tanks and 1 art in the counterattack, but those take out units as they go, too. You can always put an AA in Ukraine to make any airforce sent that much riskier for a counterattack.
I haven’t tested your proposed strategy in this thread, but I"m still inclined to think that you’re going a little bit too hard too fast. You give up a lot of important staging grounds for trading territories, which means the Germans are up about 4 IPCs and you’re down about 4 IPCs. You have to build your offense just about from scratch, while the Germans can still happily pile up cheap infantry especially with their extra income to suffocate your attacks. You’re on a pretty much a coin toss (~58% rounded up) to get the starting that is “good”, the other significant 42% being very bad and putting Russia into an immense hole with little gain to show for the immense risk.
@ncscswitch:
Well, to start, by losing offensive strength, you lose your ability to trade territories with Germany. If Russia maintains some offensive force, they can get paid for Ukraine for a few rounds and hold West Russia for a long time. They can also get into trading Belo and Karelia with Germany. That preserves Russia’s income, and keeps them building 8+ units per round.
By losing your offensive punch after R1, you can;t trade anymore. After you get paid for Eastern, West Russia, and Ukraine on R1, that is it. From there, every territory Germany takes is permamently lost income.
Within a few turns, Germany has liberated everything Russia took initially, and they hold Karelia, Archangel and Caucuses. That last one is pretty serious since it give Germany a 4 unit IC adjacent to Moscow, and that can flow troops to and through both Persia and Kazakh.
By blowing all of Russia’s offensive power on R1, you get one good round of income, then are quickly reduced to an income of 8, 10, or 12…. about 3-4 INF per turn. And that is before SBR’s.
As for fleets against Japan… that takes a few rounds to set up… rounds that allow Japan to get a LOT of forces into asia first… enough to kill those 6 eastern Russia INF, and take Bury, SFE, Yakut, Evenk, Novo and Kazakh. That is the final nail for Russia. once pinned down to that low of an income, it is a war of attrition that can only be blocked by massive infusions of AF by the Allies… and that also means the end of Allied ships in the Pacific. Allies cannot afford landings in Europe AND AF to defend Moscow AND ships to attack Japan. They can do 1 well, 2 poorly, and all 3 not at all.
Again, my opinion, YMMV.
i respect you as much experienced player but i still have my opinion
-first of all i told you to forget Caucaus because you simply cant take it
you have one tenk in Eastern Europe, some units in Ger, Seu, Weu, 4 fighters and a bomber
i have lots of infantry in Russia and Caucaus, i hold West Russia and Ukraine(you can attack it on G2)
with UK forces i hold Karelia(you can attack it on G2)
so even if you buy 8 tanks in G1 you cant take Caucaus in G3
i can hold Archangel and West Russia all the time, because they are 3 moves from Germany and Southern Europe
i wont trade territories-personally i think that trading territories with Germans is not a wise move
UK will each turn deploy 4 land units to either Karelia or Archangelsk, depends on the needs
(so, please enlight me, beacuse i simply dont see how can you take Caucaus with your 40 IPC per turn, while i produce 10 inf and bring 4 UK land units each turn)-yes you have a tenk in Eastern Europe and also 4 fig and a bom
but its simply not enough
-if Japan starts to spread through Russian lands intensively and in that way underarestimate the power of UK and USA he has signed his doom
-in first few turns it will be great for him
-but when he starts to receive less than 20 IPC, i dont think so
Because you will not KEEP $30 IPC.
Even if you did, that is 10 INF a round, split 3 ways trying to defend Archangel, West Russia and Caucuses. 3 INF per territory per turn. Gemany WILL be punching holes in a front that thin, and when they do, you have no offensive punch to repair the hole.
UK can’t start major landings before UK3 for the most part. They can grab Norway if Germany vacates it to take Karelia on UK1, but then they need to do some logisitcs and build up so that they can maintian landings AND keep London secure from the German Baltic Threat, eitehr by killing the Baltic Fleet, or building up more naval units for transport. If they rush it, they can attack Karelia with 4 units a round starting in UK2, but they risk being cut off from london by the Baltic Fleet if they do, interupting the transfer of forces and forcing a naval battle against Germany where the German fleet has the advantage of being on the defensive.
Germany also still has their Med Fleet… a TRN and a BB to land in Ukraine or Caucuses, with air support.
There is no doubt that if you are successful in all 3 combats you will have some nice income as Russia, and you will get to build up your forces. BUT, your offensive power is gone. Russia’s gains in R1 then are temporary. Germany’s gains from G1 forward against Russia will be permanent. Just a nice steady flow of forces east overwhelming each Russian held territory and then advancing again the next round. And all Russia can do is pour INF into the next meat grinder…
At least that is how it looks to me.
The original premise of this has been revised to include a WRU attack in R1?
Yes, Amon posted a 3 territory R1 strike. That was what my last response was in regard to.
ok switch, but to continue this discussion
we need to go step by step
so if i play these R1
what will you buy on your G1
when you tell me this than i will tell you the UK story
beacuse my play with UK depends heavily on your buyings in G1
