Russia, round 1!

[frimmel]

I did some moving around. G can hit CAU with 4 INF, 1 ART, 2 ARM, 1 FTR and 1 BOM on round 1 if it passes on EGY. G still has lots left to get EE and UKR back (depending on the dice) assuming 2 INF from bid in Belo.

Now I didn’t run it with the 3 MOS INF reinforcing CAU only with (6 INF and 1 FTR) FTR going there instead of MOS and having 2 from KAZ and 4 from R1 build. It is only a 21% chance for Germany to lose all land units according to 1000 rolls on frood (if I’m reading it right.)So 6 INF, 1 FTR for Russia in CAU vs. 4 INF, 2 ARM, 1 ART, 1 FTR and 1 BOM. I did not figure in Shore Bombardment or AA but that isn’t bad chance at pretty much destroying the Russian war machine and collectinf 46 IPCs.

I didn’t figure the other battles but you could hit KAR with 6 INF and 1 ARM (vs 3 INF and 1 FTR), EE with 2 ARM, 3 INF  and UKR with 4 INF and 2 ARM. Now you would need to rethink that depending on the R1 dice. You also can still hit the UK BB while doing that.

The plan as orginally designed Jennifer is fraught with peril. I don’t see it getting much better. I have 11 INF and 1 ART in MOS in the above scenario. I suppose it would depend on how much Russia has left in EE and UKR.

You don’t need Africa if you are that close to MOS.

[Jennifer]

I have:

3 Infantry, 1 Artillery, 1 Armor from Ukraine to Caucasus
1 Armor, 1 Infantry, 1 Battleship from S. Europe
1 Armor from Balkans
1 Armor from E. Europe
6 Fighters from all over Europe and a Bomber from Germany that can hit Cauc on R1 if you do not take Ukraine.  (This assumes no forces in W. Russia)

That’s 3 Infantry, 1 Artillery, 4 Armor, 6 Fighters, 1 Bomber vs what ever’s in Caucasus on G1.

[trihero]

Basically, I’m looking for a way to deplete MORE germans then I loose russians.

I think, Jen, that the 3-way attack is for you as long as the bid isn’t in Europe. If you’re into Low-Luck, you can make a huge dent in the Germans. You have really just about 100% in both Ukraine and West Russia, and 89% in Belorussia (93% if mutual destruction is OK with you). It’s nearly guaranteed that you wiped out 9 German inf, 2 art, 2 arm, and 1 fighter. You lose just about as many inf and 1 art, but that’s it for the immediate round, so the trade is in your favor. You will probably lose all of your tanks and 1 art in the counterattack, but those take out units as they go, too. You can always put an AA in Ukraine to make any airforce sent that much riskier for a counterattack.

I haven’t tested your proposed strategy in this thread, but I"m still inclined to think that you’re going a little bit too hard too fast. You give up a lot of important staging grounds for trading territories, which means the Germans are up about 4 IPCs and you’re down about 4 IPCs. You have to build your offense just about from scratch, while the Germans can still happily pile up cheap infantry especially with their extra income to suffocate your attacks. You’re on a pretty much a coin toss (~58% rounded up) to get the starting that is “good”, the other significant 42% being very bad and putting Russia into an immense hole with little gain to show for the immense risk.

[Amon-Sul]

@ncscswitch:

Well, to start, by losing offensive strength, you lose your ability to trade territories with Germany.  If Russia maintains some offensive force, they can get paid for Ukraine for a few rounds and hold West Russia for a long time.  They can also get into trading Belo and Karelia with Germany.  That preserves Russia’s income, and keeps them building 8+  units per round.

By losing your offensive punch after R1, you can;t trade anymore.  After you get paid for Eastern, West Russia, and Ukraine on R1, that is it.  From there, every territory Germany takes is permamently lost income.

Within a few turns, Germany has liberated everything Russia took initially, and they hold Karelia, Archangel and Caucuses.  That last one is pretty serious since it give Germany a 4 unit IC adjacent to Moscow, and that can flow troops to and through both Persia and Kazakh.

By blowing all of Russia’s offensive power on R1, you get one good round of income, then are quickly reduced to an income of 8, 10, or 12…. about 3-4 INF per turn.  And that is before SBR’s.

As for fleets against Japan… that takes a few rounds to set up… rounds that allow Japan to get a LOT of forces into asia first… enough to kill those 6 eastern Russia INF, and take Bury, SFE, Yakut, Evenk, Novo and Kazakh.  That is the final nail for Russia.  once pinned down to that low of an income, it is a war of attrition that can only be blocked by massive infusions of AF by the Allies… and that also means the end of Allied ships in the Pacific.  Allies cannot afford landings in Europe AND AF to defend Moscow AND ships to attack Japan.  They can do 1 well, 2 poorly, and all 3 not at all.

Again, my opinion, YMMV.

i respect you as much experienced player but i still have my opinion
-first of all i told you to forget Caucaus because you simply cant take it
you have one tenk in Eastern Europe, some units in Ger, Seu, Weu, 4 fighters and a bomber
i have lots of infantry in Russia and Caucaus, i hold West Russia and Ukraine(you can attack it on G2)
with UK forces i hold Karelia(you can attack it on G2)

so even if you buy 8 tanks in G1 you cant take Caucaus in G3
i can hold Archangel and West Russia all the time, because they are 3 moves from Germany and Southern Europe
i wont trade territories-personally i think that trading territories with Germans is not a wise move
UK will each turn deploy 4 land units to either Karelia or Archangelsk, depends on the needs
(so, please enlight me, beacuse i simply dont see how can you take Caucaus with your 40 IPC per turn, while i produce 10 inf and bring 4 UK land units each turn)-yes you have a tenk in Eastern Europe and also 4 fig and a bom
but its simply not enough

-if Japan starts to spread through Russian lands intensively and in that way underarestimate the power of UK and USA he has signed his doom
-in first few turns it will be great for him
-but when he starts to receive less than 20 IPC, i dont think so

[Guest]

Because you will not KEEP $30 IPC.

Even if you did, that is 10 INF a round, split 3 ways trying to defend Archangel, West Russia and Caucuses.  3 INF per territory per turn.  Gemany WILL be punching holes in a front that thin, and when they do, you have no offensive punch to repair the hole.

UK can’t start major landings before UK3 for the most part.  They can grab Norway if Germany vacates it to take Karelia on UK1, but then they need to do some logisitcs and build up so that they can maintian landings AND keep London secure from the German Baltic Threat, eitehr by killing the Baltic Fleet, or building up more naval units for transport.  If they rush it, they can attack Karelia with 4 units a round starting in UK2, but they risk being cut off from london by the Baltic Fleet if they do, interupting the transfer of forces and forcing a naval battle against Germany where the German fleet has the advantage of being on the defensive.

Germany also still has their Med Fleet… a TRN and a BB to land in Ukraine or Caucuses, with air support.

There is no doubt that if you are successful in all 3 combats you will have some nice income as Russia, and you will get to build up your forces.  BUT, your offensive power is gone.  Russia’s gains in R1 then are temporary.  Germany’s gains from G1 forward against Russia will be permanent.  Just a nice steady flow of forces east overwhelming each Russian held territory and then advancing again the next round.  And all Russia can do is pour INF into the next meat grinder…

At least that is how it looks to me.

[frimmel]

The original premise of this has been revised to include a WRU attack in R1?

[Guest]

Yes, Amon posted a 3 territory R1 strike.  That was what my last response was in regard to.

[Amon-Sul]

ok switch, but to continue this discussion
we need to go step by step

so if i play these R1
what will you buy on your G1

when you tell me this than i will tell you the UK story
beacuse my play with UK depends heavily on your buyings in G1

[Guest]

My board is tied up right now with a game against Mech, and to do more than speak in general terms and actually “test” it, I need to have my board free.

As soon as I finish my current game, I’ll drop you a note and we can play test 2 rounds or so of that move…

I should have time for that before the next round of the Tournament :-)

If I find out that Mech is going to be down a while longer due to PC issues, I will record my current board and set up for the test then.

That way you will get an honest and accurate response to those moves over the entire board.

Sound fair to you?

[Amon-Sul]

just tell me when you are ready
i ll be glad to test it

[Jennifer]

I still think a Finland Norway and Ukraine attack iwth a strafing run in West Russia is better.  Yea, Germany can retake Fin/Nor and Ukraine, but they are now down at least 2 fighters and Brition can just retake Fin/Nor again.

Net 6 IPCs to the allies for Fin/Nor, net 3 IPC to the Axis for Fin/Nor.

And, if England attacks the fleet, you can kiss another 2 German fighters goodbye, with average rolls, so we’re talking about a Europe protected by 2 squadrons of fighters by Germany 3/4.

[newpaintbrush]

Such a strategy will unquestionably lead to the, for lack of a better term, “turbo death of Moscow”.

1.  You have lost just about all of USSR’s hitting power.  Now the Germans can attack with total impunity without fear of a USSR counterattack.  It is like a blessing from God.  Or a miracle, maybe.

2.  Loss of fighter means no trading territories.  Two infantry and one fighter attacking a territory worth 2 IPC held by one infantry is a good idea.  Two infantry and a tank, or even one infantry and a tank, attacking a territory worth 2 IPC held by one infantry is a bad idea.  (In the first case, you gain 2 IPC from the territory and kill 3 IPC of units immediately, have 1/3 chance of losing a 3 IPC unit for immediate net gain of around 4 IPC; the surviving 1-2 infantry can kill 3 IPC units with 1/3 chance, giving 2 more IPC worth.  Two infantry are lost, making the trade supposedly even, but USSR has a positional advantage in that its infantry don’t have to move as far, and Germany has to commit forward placed infantry to retake the territory.  Change the equation to a tank and an infantry, and the cost efficiencies are changed.  Not good.

3.  Japan cracks Burytia with fighters and Japanese transport.  Soviet Far East is now wide open.

[Jennifer]

@newpaintbrush:

Such a strategy will unquestionably lead to the, for lack of a better term, “turbo death of Moscow”.

1.  You have lost just about all of USSR’s hitting power.  Now the Germans can attack with total impunity without fear of a USSR counterattack.  It is like a blessing from God.  Or a miracle, maybe.

2.  Loss of fighter means no trading territories.  Two infantry and one fighter attacking a territory worth 2 IPC held by one infantry is a good idea.  Two infantry and a tank, or even one infantry and a tank, attacking a territory worth 2 IPC held by one infantry is a bad idea.  (In the first case, you gain 2 IPC from the territory and kill 3 IPC of units immediately, have 1/3 chance of losing a 3 IPC unit for immediate net gain of around 4 IPC; the surviving 1-2 infantry can kill 3 IPC units with 1/3 chance, giving 2 more IPC worth.  Two infantry are lost, making the trade supposedly even, but USSR has a positional advantage in that its infantry don’t have to move as far, and Germany has to commit forward placed infantry to retake the territory.  Change the equation to a tank and an infantry, and the cost efficiencies are changed.  Not good.

3.  Japan cracks Burytia with fighters and Japanese transport.  Soviet Far East is now wide open.

Grr, Switch, re read it.

Part 2 of your post has no bearing anymore.  THERE IS NO LOSS OF RUSSIAN FIGHTERS to attack OR counter attack in the Finland Norway and Ukraine attack.

Meanwhile, Russia has 10 Infantry, 4 Artillery and 2 Fighters.  That’s not exactly a loss of all combat power.

Bury will cost the japan a lot.  6 Infantry, 1 Fighter (UK) vs at most 4 land units (1 tank or 1 artillery and 3 infantry), a BB, 4 fighters and a bomber and that gives America it’s pearl fleet back.  (DD, CV vs CV, FIG, SS is not a win for japan)

So the East is secure, teh germans are down two fighters, the russians are down 3 tanks and 1 artillery, but have plenty of reserves comming up.  Germany’s maybe strafed in W. Russia, but even if they arnt, they cannot hope to take Moscow and are forces to retreat and consolidate in Karelia, E. Europe, Balkans, retake Ukraine, maybe take Archangel for a turn, maybe retake Finland until England takes it again….

I’m not seeing the doom and gloom for Russia you are painting.  And I don’t get where you’re seeing a dead Russian fighter in this attack.

[Guest]

@Jennifer:

Grr, Switch, re read it.

That was not my post you were responding to.

[Jennifer]

@ncscswitch:

@Jennifer:

Grr, Switch, re read it.

That was not my post you were responding to.

Sorry, on passing glance newpaintbursh looks kinda like ncscswitch. My bad.

Still, Russia’s out 3 tanks, 2 artillery.  Germany’s out 2 fighters, 1 tank, 1 artillery.  That’s 23 IPC hit to Russia, 29 IPC to germany and not including infantry lost.

[Guest]

With a more traditional Russian open, Germany is out 1 FIG, 2 ARM, 2 ART, 6 INF

That is $46 IPC’s of units.

Excluding the INF, it is still $28 IPC’s… $1 difference.

And, Russia would NOT lose their ART in a more traditioanl open.

So now that open is $7 WORSE for Russia.

[newpaintbrush]

my god, mistaken for ncsswitch

my life is over

:-o

[Guest]

Test Game set up for detailed review of Amon’s version of the 3 territory attack on G1.
(Eastern, West Russia, Ukraine):

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=7414.0

[newpaintbrush]

A test game will not reveal the optimal strategies for both sides unless both players do the right moves.

I strongly advise that Germany ignore everything else, and use fighters to smash USSR’s offense immediately, using infantry and transport and fighter production (transport in Med), or tank and fighter production.  Caucasus should be smashed by the third turn with Japan fighter reinforcements, Allied fleet fended off by the additional German fighters.

[Guest]

I’ll review each potential move after combat occurs.

But on first thought, I disagree with a total Russia smash by Germany; for the same reason that it is ill advised in any other game… it lets the Brits and Yanks run havoc elsewhere.

And this is not to determine optimal strats.  It is just a test to see if a 3 territory attack is viable.