One can use their analytical skills to their hearts content, but unless they are put into practive, they do neither the one thinking about it, nor the community any good.
I do agree, in some small point, that if the axis KNOW what is coming, they have the best chance possible to counter it. This is not fool proof, as the Russian triple in Revised and a KJF strat (same game) showed against NCSCSwitch, but it did give him the best chance possible (he lost, quit in a huff to be more correct. I can post the map again, if anyone wants it. Hilarious position on the board, IMHO, but off topic.)
However, I am thinking that in any game, known or not known, Japan is going to face an uphill battle against an aggressive America. In most games, where Japan isn’t expecting it, they don’t face an uphill battle, they face a shear cliff, IMHO. At least when they expect it, they can move to maximize the amount of time America is locked up.
Anyway, my game with Krycheck is one example. He conceeded, even though he attacked on round 1 with Japan and was still in a strong position. (Granted, he lost 4 undefended transports attacking Karelia because he failed to take into consideration a Russian scramble and he left Japan under-protected, IMHO, at least for a LL game.) There are others, but that is the most recent.
Of course, in all games I do not ONLY go after Japan. Sometimes I put a few destroyers in the Atlantic. (78 IPC = 9 Destroyers, 1 Submarine, if you have more than that, you have to build them in SZ 101 anyway, or get more expensive ships.) Sometimes (like a lot of the time) I get Brazil too. Eh. Minor things, not enough to change the over all game situation, I don’t think. After all, Germany may decide to get “cute” and try to CRD America, well, if you have a couple destroyers out there, CRD don’t mean squat.
Oh, and I am retracting my SBR run position. By the time you have time to dither around with his scrambled fighters, you may as well have had your money going into the Atlantic instead of into strategic bombers. IMHO. All the rest, as far as I can see right now, and with the last major opponent to the strategy not engaging in a test of mettle, stands until proven false. I work under the “True until proven False” school of thought. Although, the “Proved to be True” is just as valid, it leaves too much power to nay-sayers who have no empirical evidence to support them, they just claim false and now you have to go prove true.