@rockrobinoff:
The minimum result required in SZ 12 is one destroyer. Kill a destroyer, and the Italian navy is secured.
If you use your bomber in Egypt, it means you aren’t attacking one of the major sea targets, and if you are attacking SZ 12, you are leaving UK with two transports - unacceptable in my opinion.
On G1, Germany can safely kill all of the UK boats save the transport+dest combo, and leave the UK with barely enough money to build a new fleet able to withstand a sinking. Meanwhile it hasnt bought anything capable of threatening France and is getting poor. All of this with the knowledge that Axis will get into Egypt anyway on RD 2 and secure the Italian NO.
As for terrible results being rare… the average result in Egypt is for Axis to survive with 1 tank and their bomber. It only takes one extra allied hit to make Egypt a potential disaster.
OK, I agree with first sentence (unless UK gets LRA or HBs, but that’s another issue)
For the 2nd, I’d skip z2 in case of Egypt attack: it’s way more riskier than z12, and if fails, it lets your fig or bomb exposed (for not saying a potential healing of the bb). You could try both z2 and z12, of course, but you must choose:
z2 with sub, fig, bomb & z12 with sub, 2 fig
or z2 with 2 sub, fig, bomb & z12 with 2 fig
Both are too risky. If you success, great; but if you fail one of this, it can be critical (specially z12, a potential disaster if no Egypt attack if you cannot kill at least one boat). I see no reason to give allies a chance: with a so big starting axis advantage, your best best is making the safest attacks. You have 3 critical attacks G1: z2, z12 and Egypt, if you try all of them, you get greater risks, a thing not needed. You are forced to do at least 2, and I choose z12 and Egypt because both places have units in great position to attack or defend or that cannot be replaced. In case of Egypt, the target is the units themselves, not Egypt income. If Desert Rats escape, they are in great position to halt axis advance in Africa or Middle East until italian navy is killed (and probably will hold trj enough to not let the italians escape to Indian ocean)
As for terrible results, I think we have different ideas. For me, a mutual destruction scenario is, obviously, sub-optimal for axis since medium is tank+bomb survive as you say; however mutual destruction does the important job: killing the Desert Rats. My idea of a cathastropical failure is, per example, 2 hits for Germans and 4 for UK, one that saves most of Desert Rats and still kills most of Afrika Korps. I have not the exact number, but I’d say it can’t be higher than 5%, and still it doesn’t dooms axis
BUT I’m not saying z2 is a bad idea. I could try sometimes just for the sake of change. It has its advantages, but simply is not as good as Egypt and is a bit more risky. It’s just that killing Desert Rats is too good because they can’t be replaced due position, oppositte to Atlantic fleets, but you are not going to lose a game only because you skipped Egypt, the point is that allies chances of winning can change from, say, 1%, to 5% and probably to 20-30% if skip Egypt and z2 fails. In resume: z2 is a good move, but you must choose z2 or Egypt and Egypt is even better than z2.
That’s the reason I think we are going to having problems with non-limited bids this version: a bid of 3-5 is not going to hurt axis too much (it does, but only a bit) because you can still do z2 attack (a good attack). A 6 IPCs bid could be too much (potential Egypt IC) or lead to KGF strats fanmania (a thing I’m sure we want avoid). One unit per territory could also be problematic (it doesn’t create havoc against west axis and doesn’t save chinese fighter). Chinese infs bid is the solution