Actually the odds are better than 58, that is without the bomber at egypt.
Kar - G: 3 inf, 1 art, 3 fig, 1 cruiser bombard vs R: 5 inf, 1 art, 1 AA gun = 78% odds typically 3 units left
Egypt - G: 2 inf, 1 art, 2 arm vs B: 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm, 1 fig = 90% odds typically 3 units left
SZ 2 - G: 2 sub, 1 fig vs B: 1 BB = 83% odds typically 1 unit left
Baltic - G: 3 inf, 1 art, 1 arm vs R: 3 inf = 95% typically 3 units left
Poland - G: 2 inf, 4 arm vs R: 2 inf = 98% odds typically 5 units left
Ukraine - G: 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm vs R: 2 inf = 98% odds typically 3 units left
Now those are pretty good odds, but with the small number of units anything can happen. Baltic/Poland/Ukraine if you loose you were gonna loose anyway, and it still sets up the can opener for G2. Provided you do not get diced hard in any of the fights, you should win, esp when your collecting 50+ IPC to spend on G2. And of course, J1 can get dicey too, I’ve seen the pearl fight go south before, or the DD at india destroy 2 figs, etc. Typically if J looses 2 figs on J1 and the DD at pearl your alright as allies, if they loose no figs, or keep the DD, it can get ugly real fast. Same with the 3 inf vs 1 inf fights if they take that route in china. Playing with dice though, I see no reason not to play to win on turn 1 with axis, the odds are in your favor. Also, even when the dice do bite you, many allied players get too aggressive in there counter attacks on turn 1 making it hard for them to hit in force in the mid game.