When discussing IPC and balance, you should take into account the IPC-bonuses you apparently get with some combination of territories. They didn’t use this rule in the GENCON game, but it means that the aggressive player gets extra IPCs each turn, i.e. the Axis at the start of the game. This will probably give the game a good historical feel and also a swing effect, one major victory will give way to more, i.e. signifying morale of your nation that was very important in the war. I assume these bonuses represents more morale than resources which are well represented by territory values!
Confirmed bonuses:
No enemy ships in Med- Italy 5 IPCs
Probable:
Control all islands in Pacific exc. Hawaii, NZ and AUS and still keeping all at-start areas- Japan X IPCs?
Control of major part of Africa/middle east? - Italy X IPCs
Control of major part of European Russia ? - Germany X IPCs
Probable IPCs values in -41 scenario:
Germany 30 (+5 bonus? + 4 IPC worth of Russia taken turn 1)
Soviet Union 30 (- 4 IPC worth lost on turn 1)
Japan 17 (+5 bonus, plus 13 IPCs taken turn 1)
UK 42 (minus Hong-kong, Burma, NEI, Borneo 11 IPCs lost on turn 1)
Italy 10 (+5/10 bonus?)
US/China 45 (minus Phillippines 2 IPCs lost on turn 1)
You will quickly reach AAR values, the only difference being Germany has slightly less, Soviet Union slightly more, Italy added at least at 15 and then around 3 free China inf/turn. What does it add up to? My five cents is that it’s similar to AAR in balance, but much more enjoyable and complex and rewarding playing!