Presidential Election (as a current event- watch the tone or it's gone)

Guiliani as McCain’s VP makes no strategic sense.  McCain is already strong in New England, as strong or stronger than Guiliani.  And he would only gain Guiliani’s negatives.

McCain has been week in the south for the most part.  I hate to say it, but he NEEDS a Southerner on the ticket in order to help try to resurrect the Reagan Democrats and get victories in states like North Carolina (which is one of the larger electoral prizes now).

Huckabee is a natural… a Conservative, a Southerner, a proven winner in the Southern States, and a natural point of gravitation for disaffected Conservatives to salvage their egos and back McCain.

And I have to be honest, Rush and Hannity and Ingram are pretty much screwing themselves if they fail to start to back peddle from their current position over the next several months (which they are certain to do).  McCain will put a Conservative in the VP slot, and will probably make some pledges about taxes and border security, and you will end up in the last 90 days or so before the election having Rush et.al. “grudgingly” back McCain/Huckabee as a superior answer to Obama and/or Clinton.
The lynch pin for the Conservatives will be when a couple of SCOTUS judges announce their intent to retire over the summer…  They will have no choice but to go McCain in order to try to preserve their fight against Roe v. Wade (which is the cornerstone issue of the Religious Right, and is the majority of Rush’s listeners)

And Abortion is the A1 Prime issue for the HARD CORE right (those most put off by McCain on other issues).  And those Pro-Life folks are NOT going to risk Hillary or Obama replacing aging liberals with young liberals on SCOTUS (or heaven forbid an aging Conservative with a young liberal).

If they Republicans (with a Pro-Life candidate like McCain) LOSE in 2008, it will set back the Pro-Life movement 20+ years as aging liberal SCOTUS justices (like Stevens) are replaced with younger liberal justices who will be in place until around 2030.  And if even ONE Conservative is replaced, it could lock Roe v. Wade in for even longer.

THAT is the issue of the Religious Right.  And the will NOT allow the ground they have gained on SCOTUS over the past 30 years to be lost by avoiding voting for McCain.

Rudy will carry new york for McCain if Celery is the dems candidate. McCain will not win in the north east which makes me worry to no end because i keep seeing that loser Lieberman hanging around looking for a job in the background of McCain speeches and McCain may be stupid enough to pick him because he is one of few pro-war guys on the left.

Your thinking is flawed Switch. I am a member of the “HARD CORE” right yet I could give a flying fuck about abortion at the moment, because there are so many other important matters facing the nation.

Killing the defenseless is certainly a wrong that must be stopped, but frankly I’m more worried about my brothers getting killed here in Iraq than about babies getting killed in the states.

I think McCain will carry the New England, Country-Club, Blue-Blood Republicans in the Northeast, however, he will NOT win the states.  The states will go for Obama or Hillary.

Furthermore, I don’t think McCain wants a competitor, so I doubt Huckabee will be near the ticket, let alone on it.  He might end up being Secretary of State or Chief of Staff, but I very much doubt (I could be wrong) that he will be listed as Vice President.

I also don’t think McCain is likely to appoint very conservative Justices to the court.  They might not be as liberal as the mainstream democrats want, and they’ll almost certainly not be big government which is what Hillary wants (McCain has this nagging problem of republicans being conservative, I don’t think he’ll be able to over come that and be allowed to get away with keeping the mainstream democrat line).  But I doubt they’ll be overly conservative.  In other words, the justices will probably support gun laws and Roe v Wade, but be against Gay Marriage.  They may or may not be pro-protection for the American Flag.

In other words, moderates.  Which is okay.  But Romney would have put in real conservatives as names, thus, the two democrats on the bench would have to hang on until death or the next president to retire.

There would be no benefit to picking Huckabee. Huckabee’s appeal is limited to the Bible Belt. Republicans have had a lock on that for years. Huckabees ultra-religious message will also not sit well with moderates and independents.

The only way Mccain can win this is if the Democrats implode and kill themselves at a brokered convention, ala 1968.

@Smacktard:

There would be no benefit to picking Huckabee. Huckabee’s appeal is limited to the Bible Belt. Republicans have had a lock on that for years. Huckabees ultra-religious message will also not sit well with moderates and independents.

The only way Mccain can win this is if the Democrats implode and kill themselves at a brokered convention, ala 1968.

Well, it’s looking more like 1968 every day that goes by.  I don’t see Hillary quietly fading into the night if Obama continues his current momentum.  She still has hooks in a substantial number of superdelegates, and she has a BUNCH of delegates potentially available from Florida and Michigan that are not currently being counted that collectively might be enough to put her over the top.  I can easily see a scenario where neither Obama nor Clinton has won a majority of delegates going into the convention, which sets the stage for a fight to count the Florida and Michigan votes.  And, a la Gore in 2000, Hillary will cast herself as on the side of the “people” trying to make sure every vote is counted, when all she really wants is every vote FOR HER counted.

But that said, I’m not sure I agree the general election is a slam dunk for either Obama or Clinton.  McCain is a formidable general election candidate, make no mistake.  The hard part for him has always been getting by the red-meat right wingers in the party in order to secure the Republican nomination.  Barring a major catastrophe, that appears to be all but a foregone conclusion, as Huckabee is running out of “Bible Belt” states to win, Texas being the notable exception.

McCain will carry some states, no doubt about it.  However, his base of power is in the North East, not a very Republican sector of the United States.

McCain will carry more states if Hillary Clinton is running against him then if it is Barrack Obama.  Obama has some VERY conservative ideas and he is very eloquent when he speaks.  McCain is the Baby-Boomer Generation, the same Generation that Gen-Xers want to get away from.  He is also very polarizing, just as Hillary is.  McCain also has his past to haunt him in the election, Obama only has 2 years in the Senate and some time in the State government that his opponents can get him on, everything else would be character assassination and McCain’s campaign has said they will NOT use that tactic on Obama. (They didn’t say they wouldn’t against Hillary though.)

Not to mention, McCain’s current staff is made up of the same team that put Bush 43 in power.  (Surprise surprise, the two are not that different, can’t imagine why the same campaign staff is working for both….hmm…8 more years of a Bush 43 like President?)

Here’s my prediction if the general election was held today:

Hillary >> 55%
John >> 45%

vs

Barrack >> 75%
John >> 25%

This assumes no third party.

Obama’s stance on the 2nd Amendment will not get him very far in the south.

Maybe, maybe not.  McCain has really been no friend to gun owners either.  However, Obama is anti-Gay Marriage and that WILL win him friends in the south, especially since McCain is PRO allowing gays to marry with the title of married.  (Obama is not against civil unions, he’s against giving them the title of married.)

Obama’s position is a bit more federalist

"He said he would support civil unions between gay and lesbian couples, as well as letting individual states determine if marriage between gay and lesbian couples should be legalized.

Barack Obama did vote against a Federal Marriage Amendment and opposed the Defense of Marriage Act in 1996.

http://lesbianlife.about.com/od/lesbianactivism/p/BarackObama.htm

Also, Mccain predates Baby Boomers. Baby Boomers were born between 1946 and 1964. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boomer

McCain was born in 1936, which is well before the baby boom generation.

@Gamer:

@Smacktard:

There would be no benefit to picking Huckabee. Huckabee’s appeal is limited to the Bible Belt. Republicans have had a lock on that for years. Huckabees ultra-religious message will also not sit well with moderates and independents.

The only way Mccain can win this is if the Democrats implode and kill themselves at a brokered convention, ala 1968.

Well, it’s looking more like 1968 every day that goes by.  I don’t see Hillary quietly fading into the night if Obama continues his current momentum.  She still has hooks in a substantial number of superdelegates, and she has a BUNCH of delegates potentially available from Florida and Michigan that are not currently being counted that collectively might be enough to put her over the top.  I can easily see a scenario where neither Obama nor Clinton has won a majority of delegates going into the convention, which sets the stage for a fight to count the Florida and Michigan votes.  And, a la Gore in 2000, Hillary will cast herself as on the side of the “people” trying to make sure every vote is counted, when all she really wants is every vote FOR HER counted.

But that said, I’m not sure I agree the general election is a slam dunk for either Obama or Clinton.  McCain is a formidable general election candidate, make no mistake.  The hard part for him has always been getting by the red-meat right wingers in the party in order to secure the Republican nomination.  Barring a major catastrophe, that appears to be all but a foregone conclusion, as Huckabee is running out of “Bible Belt” states to win, Texas being the notable exception.

The superdelegates are politicians as well. If it looks like the winds of change are blowing, and Obama is the best to run against McCain, they’ll give him the nod.

@a44bigdog:

Obama’s stance on the 2nd Amendment will not get him very far in the south.

Dems don’t even need the South to win anymore. The population centers in this country are all on the E. and W coasts.

Look here: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/electoral.college/

See that sea of red? All Kerry needed to win was Ohio.

Winning New York, Califonria, Pennslyania and New Jersey gets you 122 delegates. just those four states. and you only need 269 to win.

As I said, he’s anti-Gay Marriage.  And, like a good son of America, he realizes it is really the states who should be determining this, not the Federal government.

I never said he was for legislating marriage, I get the impression you THINK I said that from your post.  He voted against the legislation because he did not feel it was an area the Federal Government had a right to be in, not because he supported legislation to allow gays to get married.

You have to listen to him and read why he votes as he votes guys.  Otherwise, Hillary could say she voted for the war because she was sexually attracted to the President 20 years after the vote and you’d just take her word for it, instead of reading why she did it when she did it.

As for McCain, being born BEFORE the Baby Boomers is even WORSE then being a Baby Boomer!

Hucklebarry believes that:

Dinosaurs and humans co-existed on earth at the same time.

Chuck Norris should be secretary of Defense.

enough said!  He should be committed and guaranteed a hospital room until he gets over those views. Thats baggage to great for anybodies ticket.

Reminds me of that “General Stockdale” who was ross perots VP. MY god what a crackpot.

It was Vice Admiral Stockdale.

@Cmdr:

We are all Egoists when it comes to voting, I agree. (Egoist is someone who does what is in their own best interest and feels others should do the same.)  As much as I try to be a Utilitarianism follower (someone who does what is for the greatest good for the greatest number, even if it is to your own personal detriment.)

And yes, I have to admit, candidates that want to fill the coffers of the VA have a benefit to me.  I need those services to care for the injuries I took in the service.  I think it’s fair…though, I don’t think we need the housing benefits, etc.  Just the medical and schooling benefits, but that’s just me.

Anyway, I don’t think Obama or McCain will surrender in Iraq.  Hillary is anyone’s guess, she’s said it both ways from Sunday lately.  So national security isn’t really going to be an issue on the table if it’s Obama and McCain.

So what WILL be on the table?

Immigration (Obama’s stronger, McCain’s weaker since he proposed Amnesty twice since 08.)
Fiscal Conservativism (Obama’s stronger having voted for tax cuts AND worked for a balanced budget, McCain voted against tax cuts and has worked to make government bigger)
Gay Marriage (McCain from what I am told is neither pro or con; Obama has steadfastly been anti-Gay Marriage but willing to offer a compromise with civil unions)
Health Care (McCain’s offered universal health care in his speeches.  Obama has said that the government should provide healthcare for the financially impoverished only.)

In the most recent vote, the stimulus package McCain voted for everyone to get it (which would have included Illegals, though he probably didn’t know that at the time of his vote.)  Obama has voted to only allow Veterans and Senior Citizens get stimulus checks, Obama’s vote was on the winning side, btw.

In just about every comparison, Obama is the more conservative of the two.  I’ve yet to hear of a stance or vote that McCain has offered that was more conservative then the Democrat Obama.  In fact, I wonder if Obama is elected if the Democrats may once again become the home of conservatism while Republicans continue their march to the left becoming liberals?  It’s how it was before, it could be again.

The only immutable fact of politics in the United States is that we will always have conservatives and liberals.  Their party names may change back and forth or they may come up with new party names.  But we always have those two bodies of people.

Immigration (Obama’s stronger, McCain’s weaker since he proposed Amnesty twice since 08.)

Have you even read Obama’s position? It looks like a page from McCain’s book!  “Path to citizenship… Etc etc.

Fiscal Conservativism (Obama’s stronger having voted for tax cuts AND worked for a balanced budget, McCain voted against tax cuts and has worked to make government bigger)

That’s just plain wrong… McCain goes on and on about reducing spending, and I heard with my own ears Obama saying that he would end the bush tax cuts and effectively raise taxes.”  His words…

Gay Marriage (McCain from what I am told is neither pro or con; Obama has steadfastly been anti-Gay Marriage but willing to offer a compromise with civil unions)

McCain believes gay marriage is an issue best left up to the states.  You can’t get more conservative/Constitutionalist than that.

Health Care (McCain’s offered universal health care in his speeches.  Obama has said that the government should provide healthcare for the financially impoverished only.)

McCain says he thinks affordable health care can be made available to all Americans without a mandated universal system. McCain said that he doesn’t think government-run systems such as those in Canada and in Europe will succeed in the US. “I think it’s a warmed-over proposal that we rejected back in the early 1990s and I’m certainly not interested in raising people’s taxes,” McCain said, adding he also is opposed to requiring everyone to buy health insurance coverage. “We’ve got to make health care affordable and available. There’s plenty of ways to do that.”

In a speech in June 2003, Obama said: “I happen to be a proponent of a single-payer health care program. I see no reason why the US cannot provide basic health insurance to everybody. A single-payer health care plan, a universal health care plan. And that’s what I’d like to see.”

And I’ll throw in a couple more that are closer to my heart, Obama wants to take away my guns and supports killing babies.

Principles that Obama supports on gun issues:
· Ban the sale or transfer of all forms of semi-automatic weapons.
· Increase state restrictions on the purchase and possession of firearms.
Voted NO on notifying parents of minors who get out-of-state abortions.

In 1997, Obama voted against SB 230, which would have turned doctors into felons by banning so-called partial-birth abortion, & against a 2000 bill banning state funding. Although these bills included an exception to save the life of the mother, they didn’t include anything about abortions necessary to protect the health of the mother. The legislation defined a fetus as a person, & could have criminalized virtually all abortion.

Taken from various sources on the internet, primarily: http://www.ontheissues.org/

Dezrt, don’t get me wrong, I agree that McCain talks a good game.  However, his actions have spoken SOO loudly, no real conservative can hear a word he is saying.

Anyway, wow, Huckabee’s making a very strong showing!  If Romney would do the honorable thing and actually leave the race, I’m sure Huckabee could give McCain not only a good run for the money, but at the RNC may even beat McCain hands down.  :-o

Not that I want to root for the Huckster, but man, I really don’t have many good options for Republican candidate left!  Ron’s a no go, he doesn’t even have 4% of the vote, does he?  McCain’s way too New England for me (and a lot of other Republicans.)  Obama, in contrast to McCain, looks downright like a bleeding heart conservative (as opposed to a fiscal or political conservative.)

Hmm, wouldn’t it be interesting, Obama vs Huckabee for 2008 President……Just think about it.  Not saying it’s going to happen for sure (still a lot of dirty tricks the Clintons can pull - sue the party to force them to recognize delegates from Florida, demand endless recounts in close battles, etc, circa 2000.) And even Huckabee says it would take a miracle to win at this point (unless Romney drops all the way out, instead of sitting on the fence.)  But, as Huckabee says:

“I did not major in Mathematics.  I majored in Miracles.”

obama’s words jen.  but in 2007…he was ranked the top LIBERAL democratic senator.

take that.  enough of the obama’s more conservative than McCain nonsense.

http://nj.nationaljournal.com/voteratings/

i cant be the only one to notice all your incorrect rantings about McCain.

Obama isn’t more conservative then McCain. but McCain isn’t as conservative as he wants people to think. he is the liberal running for the coservative ticket.