Russia is simply so weak against a dedicated Axis crush that it alone is what is distorting the bids above 40-50, my proposal is to focus the tweak on the point of greatest imbalance. I don’t think that even the 28 bid would do much, if anything, to increase Russia’s survival, which is why I proposed the other two ideas.
Sound logic, Taamvan, and I take your point – if Germany, Italy, and Japan all focus on killing Russia, then Russia will die, even with $28 of extra units.
I guess I’m confused because I don’t see why that’s a problem. On the European board, killing Russia alone can’t get you victory without either London or Cairo – and if Germany and Italy team up for a Russia crush, then nobody is left to take London or Cairo in the early game. You can get to Cairo by driving south from Moscow through the Caucasus to Persia, Iraq, and Jordan – but it’s a long trip, and I think it’s challenging to get from Moscow to Cairo before Tokyo falls.
It might be interesting to see where our assumptions or predictions are actually different. I assume that with just 2 extra British subs in the Med, the UK can shut down Italy hard in 90% of games…skip the scramble out of London on G1, hit Taranto and Malta hard on UK1, use UK1 build on 2 inf, 1 ftr for London and 1 minor factory in Egypt, and then build 3 subs per turn in the Egypt factory on turn 2 and turn 3, and, if needed, turn 4. Sink what remains of the Italian fleet on turn 2, send a modest American fleet (e.g. 2 transports + 1 carrier group) to secure Gibraltar with infantry, and the Italian Mediterranean economy gets convoyed into non-existence before it ever gets rolling.
If you have a bid of 40 IPCs, that leaves 28 IPCs for the Pacific – 2 inf + 2 art for China, 1 inf for New Guinea, and 1 art + 1 tank for Siberia means that China will never lose the Burma Road, ANZAC will always have a healthy economy, and India will never be in danger of falling unless Japan wants to trade Manchuria and Shanghai and Korea for it. By turn 6 or so, the Japanese main battle fleet has been crushed, USA is earning 80 IPCs that can go 100% to Pacific, ANZAC is at 20 IPCs, UK Pacific is at 20 IPCs, China is at 15 IPCs – so you’re pulling in 135 Allied IPCs just for the Pacific against, at most, 40 IPCs for Japan. The USA starts building nothing but loaded transports; the other Pacific Allies finish wiping out Japan’s economy, and by turn 9 or so, the loaded transports (with air support from the carriers) sack Tokyo because Japan isn’t even earning enough money to max-place infantry in Tokyo.
Meanwhile, Italy is earning maybe 10 IPCs dripping wet, mostly from Ukraine, Bulgaria, etc., so they can send a couple of mechanized infantry per turn clockwise through the Caucasus, but it’s not enough to can-open against a serious British blocking force, so Germany is usually only advancing one space per turn. A very aggressive timetable might put them in Moscow on turn 5, Stalingrad on turn 6, northwest Persia on turn 7, Iraq on turn 8, Jordan on turn 9, and Cairo on turn 10. So you’ve got a race. Japan might be able to hold on turn 9, so a perfect German game and an excellent Japanese defense can still lead to an Axis win, but it’s very unlikely; usually the Allies will win that race.
What am I missing?