Hmmm, I’m not so sure about that trihero. If I attack ukraine with…
3 inf, 1 art, 2 arm, 2 figs
then that leaves for west russia…
9 inf, 1 art, 2 arm. I guess you are talking about a full ukraine attack, so that’d be 3 arm in ukraine and 1 arm in west russia. So, with 9 inf, 1 arm, 1 art in west russia, you are looking at as you say about a 99% chance, don’t you? I mean, 9 inf, 1 arm, 1 art vs. 3 inf, 1 art, 1 arm? Then in ukraine you have 3 inf, 1 art, 3 arm, 2 figs vs. 3 inf, 1 art, 1 arm, 1 fig. You’ll say that’s about 96%. Attacking without that extra armor still gives you a greater than 80% chance. I very often keep the armor back and use it against west russia instead, because as you say, you will lose armor in a counter. Maybe my odds for west russia while doing the ukraine attack are very off for some reason…
With the extra armor in west russia that is a sure win, so you have about a 20% failure rate in ukraine. It’s probably more than that if don’t want to risk your fighters at all. I usually play lowluck so ukraine is always valid percentage-wise, so I guess I should have taken that into account.
I still think the move is valid though, even with “only” a 80% success rate. The question is, do you think it would be legitimate if you were guaranteed to take out ukraine and in return lose 2 armor? I can see that losing 3 would be worse news, but I am willing to trade 2 arm, 1 art 3 inf for 3 inf, 1 art, 1 arm, 1 fig. I would not be willing to trade 3 arm for that same amount as russia.