I request that new Dice Software should be looked into (at least for Triplea Live). Even to some extent the Marti Dice for Forum games seems off. I swear, frequently odds type stuff of like 1:100 occur way too often.
Last night, AA Guns @1 rolled 5 / 9 hits on my planes. Just 2/9 is already above average, 3/9 dice rolling hits is close to 1-2% already.
5/9 hits then lowered the battle victory chances to like 87% which became a lost battle. Anyone could pull up a dice odds calculator and see how ridiculous this is. These odds of both situations happening (planes lost then 87% battle) are like getting hit by lighting or winning the lottery.
According to several online dice calculators, the odds of rolling 5/9 1s are all a decimal of a percent. Stuff like that happens way too often.
I understand for instance that there really is no such thing as 100% victory chances…ect. But it isn’t like I play 100 games and this kind of dice happens 1x. These types of occurrences are happening more like 1 / 10 or less games. Dice outliers are too often.
I’m not whining about the dice, please don’t say that. Just saying that outliers seem to occur extremely too often.
Am I wrong?
Considering the dice code hasn’t really changed in like 10+ years, I’m pretty certain it produces proper odds. I would encourage you to run 100+ calls to the dice server and post the results as I think that’ll show you that you probably get pretty close to average results with a large enough sample size.
I always like to remind people of the game yahtzee which the best score comes from rolling all of the same number (say 5 1’s). The odds of rolling all the same number is relatively low but most people have played a game where someone had like 3-4 yahtzees. Point being if its possible then it will eventually happen.
I rolled 9/10 AA gun defence hits against a 2004(?) Europe Sealion by hand once. And I’ve seen plently more on this scale just as crazy (22 planes at 3 hit nothing)
Have I played hundreds of games of Axis and Allies? Yes. But not thousands. These things do happen.
That said - I do want to know more about MARTI and it’s code…
