You bring the carrier the axis has 2 options.
Scramble, sure you take 1 carrier and 2 fighters as losses.
They still lose the fleet and 3 extra fighters.
Dont scramble and basicaly give up the fleet for minimal losses on the allied side.
Take your pick really, it hardly mathers to the allies Italy is crippled, its 1 less front to bother with and basically you turn the game into a race to moscow for the axis. They either win the race and the game or have a few 2 many bad rolls and they lose the game.