Caspian Sub Policy Paper #15: Do you know a sucker?

A Menacing German Navy
What about a naval force that is designed to harass the UK waters but not board the UK?  A German player could build something along the lines of a battleship and a couple of subs to try and control the ocean.  This option is even less effective than the transport buildup because the UK player can ignore the defense of London and begin to build dual use, counter-naval units immediately (such as fighters).  A combination of capital ships and transports would be more effective at slowing down the UK, but Germany would still have the problem of spending less than Russia on ground troops.  Forty IPCs is a lot to spend on a temporary threat to Britain that results in Germany essentially abandoning valuable land in east Europe.

Carrier + Option
You could spend 24 or more IPCs on a carrier and some other set of naval units.  But remember, your primary goal in building a fleet on round one is to prevent the UK from killing the boats you already have in the Baltic for as little cost as possible.  Any money you spend in excess of that is likely wasted.  There is no doubt that buying a carrier and another boat or two is a stronger navy, but stronger to what purpose?  You already have defense by spending the 16 IPCs.  After that, you should spend your money on Russia.

Minimizing Lucky Play
There is one other circumstance where putting more than16 IPCs in the water may be beneficial, and that is when you think your opponent will press his luck in the Baltic battle and open you up to a dice problem.  For instance, if Britain knows that Germany has a 73% chance of a favorable outcome in the Baltic with the two transport purchase, they probably will not attack.  But what if the player thinks a strafe is still worthwhile or he miscalculates and attacks anyway?  The two transport purchase is deceptively effective; at first glance most British players think they should be able to send in the planes and still like the outcome. In fact, the German player will likely enjoy the outcome, but the dice could turn that miscalculated attack into an Allied windfall.

Surprisingly, after playing this gambit many times, almost every Allied player that is not in the Caspian Sub group has attacked the Baltic even when they have a high likelihood of a poor outcome.  The battle just looks better for the UK then it actually is.  At first all you see is a destroyer and a pile of matchsticks; it doesn’t look like a threat to planes.  So the attacking player goes in, receives the expected outcome, and then complains about getting bad dice because they haven’t done the math.  But on occasion the Allied player gets good dice and the Atlantic theater falls apart for Germany.

So, due to the fact that the 2 transport purchase is deceptively strong and will often be underestimated, we recommend buying 3 transports to put the battle beyond doubt.  Even so, you will find that people will STILL attack this fleet when their odds of a favorable outcome are terrible.  Here are the top three outcomes from the simulator with three transports purchased in the Baltic and the British air force attacking:
Outcome Times AFtr ABmr DTra DSub DDes
Defender Wins 235 3 1
Defender Wins 196 4 1
Defender Wins 168 2 1

Consider what this means.  The UK has lost two fighters and a bomber which were needed to defend the UK while the most common outcome is that 3 German transports are still alive and ready to attack London.  If the Allied player bought an IIC (India Industrial Complex) before seeing the result of the Baltic battle, the game may already be over.

The third transport is somewhat wasteful in the sense that it is over-protecting against a dice outcome, but you have also just put the UK on notice that London has to be defended before they can build an IIC.  And a third transport lets you do a couple of tricks that make it worth the extra 8 IPCs.  We’ll get to that in a bit; just remember to park your fighter in range of London to keep the UK player on his toes.

But the bottom line is that by supplementing the existing Baltic fleet with a little extra punch it is more costly for the UK to take down the boats.
United Fleet
Ok, with the transport purchase you have now built some extra naval punch in the Baltic.  The original Baltic units have been protected, the UK player is watching their capital more closely, and you haven’t spent so much German cash that Russia is marching through eastern Europe like crap through a goose.  What’s next?

If the Allies are playing KGF, the simple fact is that they are still going to sink your boats.  It will cost them more money than if you had not built any boats, but they will still find a way to do it (see Policy Paper #14: Baltic Part IV - Allies Response).  You could try to build more navy and hold them off, but we have already seen that the Russians will be in great shape if you buy very much.  On the other hand, running away from the Baltic is tough.  Anywhere you run the Brits are still in range.  The only open water lies beyond the cliffs of Dover, so the Brits will get at least one crack at you before you’re free.

Here’s how you spring the Baltic fleet free: join them up with the Mediterranean fleet in Z07 on round two.

On round one the Germans should invade Gibraltar, killing the UK battleship in the process.  To do this you need to bring the transport and the battleship from Z14 and the sub from Z08.  You should have a fighter or two participate as well.  It is critical that you take Gibraltar to prevent UK from using fighters in a counterattack.  If you do take Gibraltar, then only the UK bomber and destroyer from Z16 can attack your fleet.  Because the battleship will soak up a hit, this is a terrible fight for the UK player and he shouldn’t even try it.

Now that you are in Z13, on round two you can move both the Med fleet and the Baltic fleet to Z07. You will have something along the lines of:

5tra 3sub 1des 1btl

The UK has only had one turn to build so it will be difficult for them to hit that fleet hard (Policy Paper #14 shows a couple of ways to do it, but it is still difficult).  Remember, by building 3tra you now have 5tra that can hit London.  If the Russians sacrifice their sub then the transport from the Med can be blocked from invading London round two, but then the Allies lose a defensive naval unit to free shots from German planes.  And if you station your air force in Western Europe round one (you should almost always do this) then your planes and navy can combine to pound any Allied fleet in Z08.

Keep in mind that if you do not get the Baltic fleet out on round two then you are unlikely to ever do so.  The Allied player will be moving up planes and US capital ships and the Allies will take out your boats when it is convenient for them.  By uniting the fleet early, the Allies will not have the units in place for a counterattack.
Third Round Opportunities
Ok, so you have this sweet fleet floating around in Z07.  What should you do with the boats?  You have some really good options:

1. Attack any fleet in Z08.  If your planes landed in Western Europe round two then you should be able to hit Z08 with something in the neighborhood of 5tra 3sub 1des 1btl 6ftr 1bmr.  That will rock just about anything that can be in the water at that point (Allies need two loaded carriers to prevent this).  And you can afford to suicide your boats; just pull back before you lose a lot of planes.  It hurts to see all that navy die, but remember your goals.  You are trying to slow down the Allies while not investing money in a strategy that is doomed to fail in the long term.  In addition, the earlier the battle the more it favors the Germans.  Once the Allies build up, your fleet will be a suicide with less of an impact.

If you kill all the Allied capital ships early you have now set the UK back about two rounds.  They will need one round to rebuild transports and another round to build capital ships to protect the transports.  So your most likely outcome is that you have spent 16-24 IPCs in the Baltic to set back the Allies for somewhere between one to two rounds.  That is more than a worthwhile investment.

2. Canadian Shield.  You have now set yourself up to deliver one of the sweetest sucker punches in the game.  This is too large a topic to cover here, but you can read about it in Policy Paper #13: Cracking the Canadian Shield.

3. Slip into the Mediterranean.  With 5 transports you can threaten Caucasus with a dire threat.  Moving the fleet to the Med will allow the UK to go back in the water, but it may be too late to save Moscow (combined German and Japanese pressure).  You can also drop gear in Anglo Egypt, if necessary, and reassert control of Africa.  As a side note, everyone knows the feeling of Germany funneling troops into Africa and not getting many IPCs out of Africa before the Allies liberate it.  With a fleet of this strength, you can get in, get the land, and get your boys back to Europe to do the fighting.  You’ll still have the freedom to move units back down to Africa to repel the Allies if they get frisky.

And if you drop gear in Trans Jordan and Anglo on round four, you have set yourself up to land 10 ground troops in India on round 5.  Coordinated with Japan, you should be able to knock out the British Empire in a KJF game.

4. Land grab.  From Z07 you can snag Brazil, Eastern Canada, French West Africa, or go back into the Baltic for any of the adjacent lands there.  If you move the fleet slightly south, the rest of Africa is in range.

5. Make the US sweat.  If your fleet can’t be counterattacked, you could move in range of the Eastern US.  Having 5inf 5tnk that can hit DC tends to refocus the US player if they were working on Japan.  And you don’t actually have to make the assault for this to be effective.  The mere threat of it will pull the US away from Japan for a round and you can return the 5inf 5tnk back to Europe on the next round to fight Russia.

Threatening DC in a KJF game is the Mother of All Monkey Wrenches!

6. Head back to the Baltic.  This is generally a crummy option, but if the Russians get sloppy and stage in Karelia/E. Europe, use your transports to show them you mean business!

7. Combo.  You have 5 transports.  If the Allies do not have aircraft positioned appropriately you may be able to do a combination of these items simultaneously.

A few words of caution against too much adventurism:
Once your fleet is gone, the UK may be able to build up a threatening fleet quickly.  Don’t disappear from the Atlantic unless you have a compelling reason to do so.

Also, if you split up your fleet too much then the boats become easy pickings for bombers.  Count the aircraft that can hit you very carefully before you move.

Finally, don’t drop a bunch of ground troops far away from Europe unless you can either pull them back to Europe easily or you are able to accomplish some major objective like capturing Washington DC.  If you pull too many troops away, Russia will rush in on you.
Land Bridge
There is one final advantage to buying 3 transports on round one that we haven’t discussed yet.  It is the strategy called the Land Bridge.  This topic is large enough that, like the Canadian Shield, it deserves its own paper.  It will be covered in Policy Paper #12: Baltic II - The Land Bridge.

FAQ
1. What if you build a carrier in the Baltic round one and you just stay put for defense?
That’s not a terrible option since it may force the UK to spend money to sink it.  But the UK could go after Japan instead and just ignore your carrier.  More importantly, by purchasing the carrier instead of the transports you are losing your opportunity for the Canadian Shield, Land Bridge, and the various benefits of uniting the fleets.  It is true you will have a couple of extra options with your fighters, but an experienced Allied player won’t have much trouble working around your extra fighter range.  You’ll notice we recommend the carrier for beginners in the German Beginner Strategy Guide because it’s easy to manage.  But the transports are better.
2. I love the idea of uniting the fleet, but won’t I need the Med fleet in Anglo Egypt on round one?
It’s all about the bid, Baby!  Put at least one unit in Libya (and a tank in Algeria if the bid is at least 8).  At a minimum you should have 2inf 1tnk 1ftr 1bmr.  That’s a 93% win for taking the land at all costs (to close the Suez).  And heck, you may not even care if you close the Suez.  If the Indian fleet comes through the canal, you can still unite the fleets in Z07 and kill the fleet when it comes west.  Japan will then have an easier game.
3. Can’t the UK get Africa if the fleet is united?
If the Allies want Africa bad enough, they’ll have it no matter what.  Our experience has shown that uniting the fleet is better than holding Africa.  Africa is always a fight no matter what, but a German fleet plays well for the Axis.
4. What about building the fleet in the Med so you could move into the Atlantic but threaten Caucasus too?
Remember that if you don’t build anything in the Baltic then the UK sinks your Baltic fleet at very little cost.  You don’t have enough cash to build two fleets, so leveraging your existing Baltic boats is more important.

Wrap Up
There are many options available for leveraging the Baltic fleet.  After looking at a variety of alternatives, the most efficient purchase is two or three transports.  That protects the boats on round one, allows for a strong united fleet on round two, and puts the Allied game at the brink of failure due to Land Bridge.

Hopefully you can argue your own points much better, because I think it’s a losing strategy to spend nothing in the Baltic. I do not see the problem with my arguments, and they’re really no different then the ones asserted in their paper because I took the idea from them.

Thank you Wesley!! can you basically post everything from that site here so i can spend the night reading? BTW thank you Duke for coming back! You have been away too long!

LMFAO! lol  :-D :-D :mrgreen:

WAIT!! i need to understand your reasoning CrazyStraw and I am positive your participation here will help hundreds of people OTHER than him.This site is here to help others understand how to play better and many here dont want to join Yahoo anything. PLease dont let that braggard kill the information for the rest of us. If you would be so kind as to either post everything you guys came up with or email be the stuff, so i can reformat it to work in this forum. The eyes of many are upon your next move…

I don’t think people are looking at the 3 transport buy the same way the author does:

He’s not buying it because he plans on invading London. He does it for flexibility and to increase the suicide value of the fleet. The transports can invade London and can do a couple of other nasty land grabs if the Allies aren’t careful, but that is more of a bonus thing that you can catch a couple of newbies with or at least force a suboptimal build with the Allies.

If the UK does plop down a carrier and combines a massive fleet in SZ6 on UK 1, I’m pretty sure it’s an awesome trade for Germany: the Baltic fleet, normally worthless, is now being traded in for a massive amount of UK naval gear that could have been used to protect future landings or enhance their attacks: no more BB for bombardments/soak up hits, 2 fighters/carrier down, 1-2 transports down. That’s an insane amount of gear that the UK has to replace, and the Germans probably still have their entire airforce intact. I would gladly trade in 16-24 of Germany’s first turn IPCs to slow down the UK probably at least 2 turns if he were to try such an obvious tactic as block on turn 1; the UK isn’t looking at the big picture if he thinks it’s worth it to trade his navy for the German navy.

The UK has simply too little money and not enough starting forces to economically soundly block a link of the fleets if the Baltic has been reinforced with 2-3 transports.

If you kill all the Allied capital ships early you have now set the UK back about two rounds.  They will need one round to rebuild transports and another round to build capital ships to protect the transports.  So your most likely outcome is that you have spent 16-24 IPCs in the Baltic to set back the Allies for somewhere between one to two rounds.  That is more than a worthwhile investment.

I quote this directly from the paper, and it makes a lot of sense.

You will be a little bit on the rough side with Russia for the first couple of turns, but this soon turns around since you can focus your full effort on him after spending a wad of money on turn 1 to slow the Allies down. Letting the Allies slide with safe and free shipping is not a good idea at all, and hastens Germany’s death. The purchase of 2-3 transports and linking the fleet gives the German navy a great edge in delaying the Allies. You can do the same with a carrier, but the carrier doesn’t carry the same amount of threat to the capital that the transports do.

One part of the paper that it hinges on is also the bid; it’s assumed you have something extra in Africa so you can take Egypt on the first turn without too much sweat.