I’ve tried it but wouldn’t do it again. I eventually held Hawaii and got my capital ships repaired in place, J3 I think.
Then you’ve put all that shipping into something that only delivers 6IPC while killing an additional 3 warships + a TT. Then your SZ19 + SZ33 fleet don’t have dominion over ANZAC and the UK in the Java sea and you can really only claim one money island per turn or suicide a TT per island - they might take it back.
Specifically with the proposed attack, one strat bomber + one cruiser is far, far too weak to take down the Prince of Wales (UK BB). There’s a significant chance of it living and then repairing itself UK1. Better to hit it hard with 2SBs + cruiser + fighter (Formosa). That way you have a significant chance of only taking one hit and something like a 10% chance of getting it with no loss.
@Young:
Why not converge as much Japanese navy that can reach into the Hawaii sea zone, with the American ships already there (they’re neutral powers after all). America wouldn’t be able to attack US1, the American ships wouldn’t be able to escape far, and America can only build 3 units off San Francisco US1, leaving them sitting ducks for a J2 attack (I call it a crowbar)… anyone care to do the math on that?
I was going to say that the USA can then converge their entire USAF on your fleet but that assumes they can attack you. However, the USA can move its Philippines two ships within range (perhaps they might be picked off by other Japanese forces). Let’s look at it:
USA SZ26 has: 2Cruisers, 2DD, BB, sub, CV, up to 5 fighters including the scramble.
IJN has: 3CV, 6planes, 3DD, sub, Cruiser, BB.
Looks to be a favourable attack (92% +31TUV swing) and more favourable when you can throw in some more forces from SZ6 J2.
But the USN can just as easily retreat to SZ10, buy a CV and fly fighters to it which means the IJN needs to have already bought reinforcements J1. USA get to see the reinforcements which can possibly be brought in before needing to buy anything. Fighters/tacs bought in Central or Eastern USA can help support the attack BTW so long as they can land on a CV.
If I was playing USA against this move, I’d move the Philippines ships to SZ54, buy a CV and 2 subs in SZ10, a few tacs and retreat to SZ10. The IJN would need to bug out and couldn’t reach either the Carolines or Japan. Presumably they could still take Hawaii with planes and a suiciding TT from Japan, but it could be taken back so easily. In fact, I’d be inclined to use the SZ26 TT to take the 2 inf off Hawaii towards the Money islands via SZ54.
Sure, there is still some theoretical risk that Japan will declare on USA but not UK/ANZAC but that is such a weak move that if Japan do it, it’s a victory in itself.
A stronger move for Japan might be to move a smaller fleet to SZ25 off Midway and end with one to three TTs in SZ6. At least the IJN are still within one turn of SZ6. Doing it that way threatens Hawaii because the planes on the CVs can support the land assault and only risks transports really. USA still need to respond in some way and probably will need to do a naval build up in SZ10. Something I don’t want to do US1.
Hmm, I’ve been struggling with my Japanese opening at sea. I think going through this has been helpful. If Japan can hold the USA in SZ10, that is good for Germany as well as Japan.
@Amalec:
I think you’re forgetting that the American ships can retreat to the coast of San Francisco and, without the use of the Hawaiian naval base, the Japanese ships are out of range. On J2 you could potentially take Hawaii, but America can block that with a destroyer off the coast of Midway if they’re clever. By J3 you can certainly take Hawaii… but by that point America has had a couple of turns to build, you’re outside the reach of your land based air, you don’t have the backing of the SE Asian economy, and the British, ANZAC and Chinese are all looking to put a knife in your back.
Yes.
But I’d already written the above.