@Arthur:
The game is evolving and it seems like the Allied bids are slowly creeping up as Axis players are learning to compensate. I agree with cyanight that getting to Moscow is easy for a non-bid game unless the Allies play perfectly or the dice are against you. It is like clockwork:
G1: build arts
G2: build tanks/mechs
G3: declare war, move to Eastern Poland, purchase planes or tanks, bomb Moscow if possible
G4: March to Belarus, bomb Moscow again if possible, purchase fast movers
G5: March to Bryansk, purchase planes
G6 or G7 invade Moscow
If the Allies do a KGF plan, scrap this plan and focus on an economic victory as Japan expands to 80+ PUs/round. Eventually the US will have to spend 100% of their budget in the Pacific to contain the monster.
With perfect Allied gamplay and above average dice rolls, Axis can fail. Still I would give the odds of victory to be 75+% when both sides are played by skilled people. You even can get a fast win 10% of the time in a non-bid game when the UK fails in the Med/Africa. Italy can be standing in Egypt in the first few rounds and there is nothing that the Allies can do to recover. Italy builds a factory there, Germany provides a few planes to strengthen the position, and the Axis economy expands to astonishing heights. That can happen ~3% of the time in matches with heavy Allied bids in the Med. Time to start a new game…
I seem to be in the minority here, but I still don’t see this plan as an almost guaranteed Axis win (especially since I’ve seen it beat several times, on both sides of the aisle). Every time I see an Axis strategy written out it never seems to factor that the Allies get to play the game too.
If Germany buys all art G1, tanks/mechs G2, then it’s obvious they are going Barbarossa, and the Allies simply have to prepare for it. Two turns of 9 inf and a fighter for Russia, take Persia UK1, factory there UK2, and US going heavy EUS, and suddenly it’s not a gimme. By turn four the US will either be dominating the Med or landing in Norway (either way they will easily have 6-8 loaded transports in tow); Russia will have at least 7 fighters (one per turn for at least 3 turns, and the UK will send a plane per turn from Persia to Moscow starting on turn 4), making bombing raids difficult (if not impossible) for Germany and the UK will be assisting the US in either the Med or Norway, while providing support to Russia.
Japan can still be contained, as the US can spend the majority of its money in the Pacific from turn 3 on. Plus, Russia should use the Siberian troops to push into Japan on turn three, either into Korea or Manchuria depending on how it looks.
None of these things guarantee an Allied victory of course, but I’ve seen the all out rush to Moscow fail too many times to agree that it’s virtually unbeatable