Hi KNP,
Thanks for your analysis.
My idea is, to present the UK with an opportunity to kill the German battleship by using forces that would otherwise have been deployed against Italy. And the threat is that if they don’t do that, they still have to take a G3 Sea Lion into account - not as necessary strategy for Germany, but as an option that the UK has to reckon with. The Sea Lion threat becomes stronger by killing the SZ106 transport which could otherwise have brought in two Canadian units.
In scenario A, my main difference is that I’ll keep the damaged battleship over a plane, if I anticipate that the UK will need some of the forces meant for Italy to kill the battleship UK1. If luck was against me (Germany losing SZ110 and/or SZ106, or all the UK forces in SZ111 surviving), then I’ll keep the plane.
But assuming an “average” outcome (Germany winning SZ110 and SZ106), I’d go for:
1 UK hit – damage the battleship
2 UK hits – damage the battleship, sink the sub
3 UK hits – damage the battleship, sink the sub, kill the fighter
4 UK hits – damage the battleship, sink the sub, kill the fighter, kill the tac
Scenario B leads to a situation where the UK can use the SZ109 destroyer and the Scotland fighter to kill any German units that remain in SZ111. So in that case I’d indeed sink the battleship and keep the planes:
1 UK hit – damage the battleship
2 UK hits – damage the battleship, sink the sub
3 UK hits – damage and sink the battleship, sink the sub
4 UK hits – damage and sink the battleship, , sink the sub, kill the fighter
So with 2 UK hits, I’d go for your Option 1. The reason is, quite simply, that it has a fair chance of killing another UK unit upon being attacked. Also, the UK will have to consider whether to send its SZ109 destroyer after that battleship or after any German subs that will likely have survived in SZ106.
I agree, 3 German and 1-2 British hits would be average, and just about perfect for Germany. Now if the UK wants to kill the German fleet, they need to throw everything at it, including the SZ91 cruiser, and then Taranto won’t happen. But if they don’t kill it, then there may (or may not!) be a G2 naval buy, and the SZ106 sub(s) may also slip back east.