@axis_roll:

Is that fair in a game play test to give Germany BOTH worse case scenarios?

I get 25% for 7 inf, art, 2 tank and 26% for 6 inf,art,2 tank in WRU
For Ukraine, it is not so close as the the most common outcome:
21% you have 2 tanks, 2 ftr, 18% is 1 tank, 2 ftr

What makes this one unit discussion so difficult is that WRU most common outcome is basically TWO outcomes they are so close in percentage.

My point was as a game test, shouldn’t you give russia the slightly better outcome in one battle and the slightly worse outcome in another to best average the results?

Even if we go with slightly worse in W. Russia and slightly better in Ukraine it’s not a huge difference.  You were saying W. Russia with 5 infantry, I was saying 7.  Now you seem to be saying 6 would be better.  That’s doable.  However, I like to look at what’s worst for Germany, since, if I was going to do Sea Lion, then I’d expect worst possible results.

To me that’s 7 Inf, 1 Art, 2 Arm, AA Gun in W. Russia; 2 Armor in Ukraine and taking England with 1 Armor, no fighters or bombers left.

None of that is highly unlikely.  It’s pretty likely that all three (with slight modification) will happen.  By slight modification I mean +/- one unit for the attacker.

So if each scenario had 20% chance to fail (for example) should I bet that all three will fail or that all three will succeed?  Well, 0.20.20.2 = 0.008.  That’s 0.8% that all three will fail, not very likely.  Actually, the chances that the battles go slightly worse for Germany in the first two and average for the last one is much more likely then if the first two battles go poorly for Russia and Germany gets average results in England.

Even if you don’t want to buy that, what harm is there in looking at it from the worst realistic case for Germany?  If it works out for Germany in the worst realistic case for Germany, then it should only work better for each other realistic case, right?

yeah hehe discussion was polarised and things got a bit warm earlier
we all understand that few involved in the discussion actually play with the faulty OOB rules

don’t worry, we are not that crazy about it
we only have 1 playtest game going

anyway, lots of maths indeed

@Crazy:

:|
Since I have never played OOB rules, and probibly never will, this thread does not apply to me.
Anyone else out there play only OOB?
Noobs need not reply, you probibly haven’t heard yet that the box set rules suck! And that LHR have superceded the box rules for commited players. :x
Really, what a lot of wasted time has been spent with this scenario thread, from players who will never play strictly with the OOB rules.
Now do something more important, like dusting off your computer or taking out that pile of trash by your desk.
I should really negative karma everyone on this thread!  :roll:
Consider this diatribe a one time warning, don’t waste time with unreasonable things, life is too damn short for such things. Be productive with positive thoughts that will benifit yourself and others.
Now go play a game, make love to your one and only, or something that has meaning.
Peace
   :-)

+1 karma for that post…
made me smile :)

@Crazy:

:|
Since I have never played OOB rules, and probibly never will, this thread does not apply to me.
Anyone else out there play only OOB?
Noobs need not reply, you probibly haven’t heard yet that the box set rules suck! And that LHR have superceded the box rules for commited players. :x
Really, what a lot of wasted time has been spent with this scenario thread, from players who will never play strictly with the OOB rules.
Now do something more important, like dusting off your computer or taking out that pile of trash by your desk.
I should really negative karma everyone on this thread!  :roll:
Consider this diatribe a one time warning, don’t waste time with unreasonable things, life is too damn short for such things. Be productive with positive thoughts that will benifit yourself and others.
Now go play a game, make love to your one and only, or something that has meaning.
Peace
  :-)

Everyone at Caspian Sub evidentially.  They refuse to adopt LHTR.

@Cmdr:

@Crazy:

:|
Since I have never played OOB rules, and probibly never will, this thread does not apply to me.
Anyone else out there play only OOB?
Noobs need not reply, you probibly haven’t heard yet that the box set rules suck! And that LHR have superceded the box rules for commited players. :x
Really, what a lot of wasted time has been spent with this scenario thread, from players who will never play strictly with the OOB rules.
Now do something more important, like dusting off your computer or taking out that pile of trash by your desk.
I should really negative karma everyone on this thread!  :roll:
Consider this diatribe a one time warning, don’t waste time with unreasonable things, life is too damn short for such things. Be productive with positive thoughts that will benifit yourself and others.
Now go play a game, make love to your one and only, or something that has meaning.
Peace
   :-)

Everyone at Caspian Sub evidentially.  They refuse to adopt LHTR.

Have you ever read the C-Sub rules?  They are NOT OOB rules.

They have a limit that a capital can not be attacked round one of the game.

Yea, I read them.  To be honest, and no offense intended to C-SUB fanatics, they read to me like the cliff notes version of LHTR with some of the really important fixes left off the sheet.

But that’s just my PERSONAL opinion on the RULES.  I’m not saying anything about the authors or those who enjoy using them, or anyone who has used them on a regular basis.  I am just saying, MY OPINION OF THE RULES are that the C-SUB amendments of the box rules were put together very poorly and fail to accomplish some of the more important fixes found in LHTR.  Even if one only looks at the summary of LHTR changes, you (IN MY OPINION) have a far superior set of rules to C-Sub.

However, the entire discussion is Operation Sea Lion on Germany 1 and that is only feasible (short of an insane bid) with the out of the box rules.  Which is why we are using them for the discussion.

But I agree, LHTR is vastly superior in every way.  And, if you use the National Advantages with LHTR, I submit that there is no need for a bid at all. (Well, maybe the ALLIES need some bids!  But I don’t think the Axis do.)

:|
OK then, let’s start a new thread on playing with NAs’. I think it has been talked about before to some extent, but have there been any real effort to playtesting them? :?

Yes, I’ve played them for years now, both for fun and in tournaments.  1.3’s were better, I think, but 2.0 are pretty good too.

Well, our test game is over.  With some great rolls the Allies came back and made a game of it, and had even greater rolls and held SE against the German assualt.

IMO, I think we are probably stuck right where we were when we started.  The loss of London does not doom the Allies, but you need some chips to fall your way, either mistakes by your opponent or some good dice.

Also players shouldn’t underestimate Russia, they can be very powerful and seeing Germany trade units with the UK can put a real big smile on their face.  It may only be short lived, but Russia can easily be earning mid to upper 30’s for a few key turns.

@DarthMaximus:

Well, our test game is over.  With some great rolls the Allies came back and made a game of it, and had even greater rolls and held SE against the German assualt.

IMO, I think we are probably stuck right where we were when we started.  The loss of London does not doom the Allies, but you need some chips to fall your way, either mistakes by your opponent or some good dice.

I did make a big mistake the turn before US took SE.  My buy was all wrong.
I should have concentrated on creating a strong force to retake SEU.

My 8 units defending SEU also only got 2 hits as UK BB’s took two units with their BB and then the inf pinched in to get a hit too.  Then US BB hits as well… giving only 4 inf to defend who only get 1 hit.

I am not even going to go into that last defensive stand for the allies.

Germany can either try to over run Russia with the cash from taking london
OR
play strong and hold UK and wait for Japan to win the game.

My goal was the latter.  And I still was in this game if I retake SEU.  Next turn I would’ve been able to retake SEU again and then there would’ve been no more russians to throw into SEU.

True, but there still should have been some US troops to continue to trade SE once you used up the Inf in London.  I’m assuming you were going to Non-Com at least some of them back to Europe.  I think I probably could have gotten some more Russians over there too since at this point I don’t really view Japan as any sort of threat.  It may not have worked, but I was trying to make sure that Germany could only place 10 units in Europe a turn.  That has the ability to negate large amounts of IPCs.

@DarthMaximus:

True, but there still should have been some US troops to continue to trade SE once you used up the Inf in London.  I’m assuming you were going to Non-Com at least some of them back to Europe.  I think I probably could have gotten some more Russians over there too since at this point I don’t really view Japan as any sort of threat.  It may not have worked, but I was trying to make sure that Germany could only place 10 units in Europe a turn.  That has the ability to negate large amounts of IPCs.

It’s a lot easier for Germany to replace units than Russia or USA

Germany can drop extra units into UK and then transport them back, as you pointed out, I was going to do this turn, especially since US could’ve hit UK with a mere 4 inf, art and tank this turn.

I was most likely going to throw some JApanese units close buy to be sacrificed … .to keep the Russias from going after Germany.

You see, SEU was bait.  I knew you’d have to commit a lot to take it (5 us tpts!).  That’s put you out of position.  You put your russian ftrs in there, and I should’ve been able to kill them to help the Japanese put pressure on Russia.  Sure they had lots of inf out there, but not many attackers…. hence the upcoming body toss.

But it is only works if you do indeed take SE back, which you didn’t.

In the case of a Capital Loss, there are only two ways a player can come back, an opponet’s mistake or dice.  I know you’ve already said you made a mistake with the previous Ger buy, but I’m not sure why you would even open yourself up to being “diced” in SE.  I thought I made it pretty clear in my moves I had no intention of retaking London once you took it a second time.  The trns weren’t out of postion.  I can still unload to Alg then directrly into Europe.  It is the same Shuck that is used to go to London then to Kar in a normal game.
The Allies are clearly desperate with the loss of London so I don’t think baiting SE is a good idea, it is far too valuable should things go sour.  I knew your only shot would be to commit everything including air, which was fine b/c I think I had better odds in that battle that I have starting from UK 1 with no capital.

I also never would have attacked SE with the US if Germany had more units to take it back and obviusly would have played Russia different as well.

As for Russia, I wouldn’t be attacking Japan.  It is much ceaper to defend, and when you are at an IPC loss like I was this game, why would I use up my valuable Russian “2’s” on Def as lowly “1’s” on Off?

The Kaz stack prevents a large J move to Per or Novo given Russia can place in both Cauc or Mos, which means I only need a bare minimum there for Defense (potentially UK ftrs as well unless they were needed in SE), while the rest of my units would have continued to go to Germany.  I just needed this last rd to claim Kaz so I’d have the defensive numbers and position until Japan could completely overwhelm them which was probably several turns away given that 4 units or so were going to Canada, and If Japan only moved a few inf, fine then Russia is still sending ~6 units to Europe.

Sealion is not the way to go.

1. Odds not in your favor: A. survives: 22%  D. survives: 73%
2. If you fail, you have just lost the game.
3. If you succeed, you will have lost more units than the money you will get from UK, while letting Russia get ahead in the builds.
4. You will lose Gbr against the UK or US counterattacks. If you retake it, you will lose it again.

According to odds and some of my calculations, this strategy will win you the game less than 20% of the time.