What about bidding an extra transport in the Baltic?
@the:
but consider that the fewer dice you spend on tech, the more your chance of just wasting IPC.
True but as I said above, if I only buy one die and it does not work OK fine I can live with that. because 1 arm less bought on G1 does not ruin the game 5 point of TUV is something that can happen anytime in trading territories. If it work than you have still 35 ipc left and can go for some transport to retake london on G2 (or just anything else you think worthwhile)
And even if I you buy 8 tech dice you still have a chance to fail. (5/6^8=0.23)
23% to not get the tech under these circumstances, with no units bought on G1, I don’t know if one can recover from this - I guess not.
What about bidding an extra transport in the Baltic?
If you get an 8 bid and place the trn in the baltic sea the allies have to know what you are trying for. I gues they would send both russian figs to london - else you take london with 2 arm and 2 air left (frood) on average and the chance of failure is only 10%.
If there are 2 more figs in london you take it with only 46% - not the best odds.
These assumption are based on 2 inf 2 arm 5 fig 1 bom - since russia should try to bring 1 german fig down on R1 else you have 65% chance of sucsess in the second scenario.
@the:
(dryly) I hate to rain on everyone’s parade :lol: ooo teh punz
but consider that the fewer dice you spend on tech, the more your chance of just wasting IPC.
yeah thats one analysis of tech dice in this game
but some of the current claims are that if Sealion suceeds if 8 dice was used its relatively suicidal (lets say 10% chance of winning) and if 1 die was used its relatively godly (lets say 90% chance of winning)
in that case, the reverse would be true
you spend X die on G1 for LRA tech, but not more than X since even if it success the situation is not good for Germany
do you see the fuss against the auto-40-IPC analysis now?
@the:
(dryly) I hate to rain on everyone’s parade :lol: ooo teh punz
but consider that the fewer dice you spend on tech, the more your chance of just wasting IPC.yeah thats one analysis of tech dice in this game
but some of the current claims are that if Sealion suceeds if 8 dice was used its relatively suicidal (lets say 10% chance of winning) and if 1 die was used its relatively godly (lets say 90% chance of winning)
in that case, the reverse would be true
you spend X die on G1 for LRA tech, but not more than X since even if it success the situation is not good for Germanydo you see the fuss against the auto-40-IPC analysis now?
omg, I so recommended AGAINST 40 IPC. See my earlier posts. I’m not making this up, people!
See, how can I help but be insulting when people ask me questions like that? :roll:
Do you see why I say you should wear pants in public? No, seriously, do you? :roll:
If I did the numbers right, here are the approx odds for tech (getting at least 1 hit):
1 die - 17%
2 dice - 30%
3 dice - 42%
4 dice - 51%
5 dice - 60%
6 dice - 66%
7 dice - 72%
8 dice - 76%
So, it is bad to assume someone will spend 40 ipc on dice, since you don’t really gain that much of an advantage over just spending 35 or even 30. What is probably more likely is someone spending 15 to 25 ipc on dice (3 to 5 rolls), in which they take the shot but still have 15 to 25 other ipc to spend on units.
That being said, while losing London is bad, it is not necessarily a game ender for the Allies. The reason being (assume you need to wait for the US to liberate) with the loss of the UK 1 buy all you lose is possibly 1 AC and 1 trn (fairly common buy for UK in some circumstances). But you don’t need to “re-buy” (or buy) the AC later b/c you should have 2 BB’s floating around (plus US capital ships) and an extremely weak German airforce.
The loss of the UK 2 buy is bad, but again this is usually spent on 1-2 trns (maybe inf/planes) and used to go to Afr. But you shouldn’t need immediate help in Afr on UK2 anyway b/c Egy is an easy counter and you’ll have 2 inf (aus/nz) ready to land on UK 3 plus the US can still land on US 2.
The Allies will certainly need Russia and the US to be playing well to cover for the lack of UK units but there other times not involving Sealion where the UK can be hit with massive losses early and the Allies still win.
Take a sz 5 attack with 2 ftrs, 1 bom. Say UK misses and Germany gets the double hit.
UK will usually lose its med fleet (BB/DD) for the cost of a sub, and 33% of the time Germany can clear pretty much wol.
Also consider a failed first time bombimg run is a loss of a bomber right there (15 ipc for nothing).
Again I’m not saying losing London is advantageous for the Allies or doesn’t matter, just that is isn’t necessarily game over either. Certainly the advantage takes a big shift to the Axis to win the game but the Allies still have a chance to comeback.
That being said, while losing London is bad, it is not necessarily a game ender for the Allies. The reason being (assume you need to wait for the US to liberate) with the loss of the UK 1 buy all you lose is possibly 1 AC and 1 trn (fairly common buy for UK in some circumstances). But you don’t need to “re-buy” (or buy) the AC later b/c you should have 2 BB’s floating around (plus US capital ships) and an extremely weak German airforce.
The loss of the UK 2 buy is bad, but again this is usually spent on 1-2 trns (maybe inf/planes) and used to go to Afr. But you shouldn’t need immediate help in Afr on UK2 anyway b/c Egy is an easy counter and you’ll have 2 inf (aus/nz) ready to land on UK 3 plus the US can still land on US 2.
You miss that the ORIGINAL UK units are also all gone (2 inf,art,tank and air force).
If UK can not add units until UK3, that is much larger than you are implying, IMHO.
PLUS any smart German player will realize on G1 IF their LRA tech roll is successful that they should probably buy at least 1 if not 2 transports to RETAKE UK G2 after US has liberated it.
That, my friend, IS game over.
Unless Russia has bought all tanks on R1 and pushes like a mother R2 into Ukraine/belo or karelia… but EVEN THEN, Germany should be able to weather than allied pressure.
I’d be willing to test this scenerio with anyone that wishes to play as the Axis. I would of course play the Allies.
R1 would be as follows with no fore knowledge of Sea Lion:
Buy 2 inf, 2 rt, 2 arm (common for my play)
Combat - Wrus with 9 inf, 1 rt, 1 arm, Ukr with 3 inf, 1 rt, 3 arm, 2 ftrs
Results:
Wrus taken with 6 inf, 1 rt, 1 arm
Ukr taken with 3 arm, 2 ftrs
Both standard results (using LL and everything hits on 3 or above).
I’ll Non-Com everything West (again very standard in all my games)
sub to sz 2, aa to wrus, I’ll even make sure the ftrs are out of range of London on R2 by landing in Cauc.
Summary
Wrus - 6 inf, 1 rt, 1 arm, aa
Ukr - 3 arm
Cauc - 4 inf, 2 rt, 2 ftrs, aa, ic
Mos - 4 inf, 2 arm, ic
Novo - 2 inf
Yak - 4 inf
Sz 2 - sub with uk ships
Germany’s turn.
They must spend 25 on dice (giving them a 60% chance to get). They of course will automatically get LRA for this 25.
Germany must attack London with 1 inf, 1 arm, 5 ftrs, 1 bom.
Results: Germany takes with 1 arm.
They lose all aircraft - 1 ftr shot down due to aa, and the rest lost trying to preserve the Arm. (Again this is all standard and avg results with LL or even Frood)
Germany plunders the 30 ipc.
The rest of your G1 purchases/combat/non-com moves are up to you and subject to dice rolls just like a normal game.
Some things in this set up may be negotiable I haven’t looked too closely at it and may have missed a unit here or there.
I would define success for the Allies in the following ways:
1 - No Success - Allies are completely overwhelmed from the loss of London and on their heels all game. Perhaps Moscow has even fallen, but it is obviously over by rd 4-5.
2 - Limited Success - Allies make it to rd 6-8 and still putting up a fight. They might be losing the game but UK is back in it and all three Allied capitals are still in Allied hands.
3 - Success - Allies make it to rd 9-10 and are still fighting. The Allies have recoverd from losing London and the game has turned into a “normal” dogfight.
4 - Great Success - The Allies hold on and win the game.
Personally, as the Allies, if I did lose London on turn 1 I’d be happy with any one of the last 3 definitions in that I gave myself a chance to comeback, but for the sake of this test I’ll be shooting for one of the last two.
We also don’t have to play the entire game, just a few rds to see how things shake out.
I’m actually kind of curious about this since I’ve never played with Tech or OOB rules.
Actually, I did suffer a sealion invasion once. Germany lost all its’ planes and an Inf, leaving it’s tank.
the two UK BBs sank the invasion fleet, and with the Russian sub, blocked any further attempt to retake on G2.
USA liberated London.
Germany lost more IPCs than they gained; Baltic fleet, 5 fighters, bomber, tank and inf.
I won the game, somewhere around round 8 as I recall.
Germany just could not counter very well with no Luftwaffe. And Germanys turn one buys were so small for land units that Russia was able to go on the offensive by R3. :-D
@Crazy:
Actually, I did suffer a sealion invasion once. Germany lost all its’ planes and an Inf, leaving it’s tank.
the two UK BBs sank the invasion fleet, and with the Russian sub, blocked any further attempt to retake on G2.
USA liberated London.
Germany lost more IPCs than they gained; Baltic fleet, 5 fighters, bomber, tank and inf.
I won the game, somewhere around round 8 as I recall.
Germany just could not counter very well with no Luftwaffe. And Germanys turn one buys were so small for land units that Russia was able to go on the offensive by R3. :-D
Obviously a bit of a hiccup, because Germany can just land one west of the Baltic and block the UK bb/trn with a sub.
How many dice did Germany spend to get LRA?
That’s what I’m getting at. If Germany spends the money on LRA on G1, succeeds and goes all out for England, they will win England, but they will lose the game, all things being equal.
BTW, 8 dice is much better then 6 dice. A full 10% better. It makes a difference.
And I agree, you lose ALOT more then the Allies in that. You lose the trades in the East against Russia, you lose the attack on Egypt allowing England into the Med, you lose your entire Luftwaffe and you, at best, slow England two turns. Uhm, guess what? England’s not exactly a dynamo for those two rounds ANYWAY. They’re usually buying Carriers, tranports, liberating Africa, etc. All of which they do not have to do now because Germany does not exist as a real threat anymore.
Can Germany put down a dozen new tanks? Sure. So? By the time they actually start hammering the Russians you’ll be too busy defending Berlin against British, American and Russian invasions to do any serious attacks anyway. Meanwhile, Russia will gladely draw your tanks out in trades and kill them off piecemeal. You attack with INfantry, Armor, I defend with Infantry. My counter attack kills your tank. I win.
@the:
omg, I so recommended AGAINST 40 IPC. See my earlier posts. I’m not making this up, people!
NPB, I am sorry if you feel insulted
I am only talking about your comment of “fewer dice you spend on tech, the more your chance of just wasting IPC”
the timing it came sounds like you prefer 40 IPC on die than 1 or 2
if you look back you’ll see that I did note that you proposed a different Sealion
so don’t worry
now, I see we are bringing up % chance of different no. of LRA dices
I guess that means we are not on the same channel yet
what I am saying is Germany is not committed
it can go with very few LRA dice, if you get LRA you go Sealion and still have an almost normal G1 build money
if it doesn’t, you play the “normal” game with only a small disadvantage
until we get this part we are still arguing over two different things :?
I’d be willing to test this scenerio with anyone that wishes to play as the Axis. I would of course play the Allies.
R1 would be as follows with no fore knowledge of Sea Lion:
Buy 2 inf, 2 rt, 2 arm (common for my play)
Combat - Wrus with 9 inf, 1 rt, 1 arm, Ukr with 3 inf, 1 rt, 3 arm, 2 ftrsResults:
Wrus taken with 6 inf, 1 rt, 1 arm
Ukr taken with 3 arm, 2 ftrsBoth standard results (using LL and everything hits on 3 or above).
I’ll Non-Com everything West (again very standard in all my games)
sub to sz 2, aa to wrus, I’ll even make sure the ftrs are out of range of London on R2 by landing in Cauc.Summary
Wrus - 6 inf, 1 rt, 1 arm, aa
Ukr - 3 arm
Cauc - 4 inf, 2 rt, 2 ftrs, aa, ic
Mos - 4 inf, 2 arm, ic
Novo - 2 inf
Yak - 4 inf
Sz 2 - sub with uk shipsGermany’s turn.
They must spend 25 on dice (giving them a 60% chance to get). They of course will automatically get LRA for this 25.
Germany must attack London with 1 inf, 1 arm, 5 ftrs, 1 bom.
Results: Germany takes with 1 arm.
They lose all aircraft - 1 ftr shot down due to aa, and the rest lost trying to preserve the Arm. (Again this is all standard and avg results with LL or even Frood)Germany plunders the 30 ipc.
The rest of your G1 purchases/combat/non-com moves are up to you and subject to dice rolls just like a normal game.
Some things in this set up may be negotiable I haven’t looked too closely at it and may have missed a unit here or there.
I would define success for the Allies in the following ways:
1 - No Success - Allies are completely overwhelmed from the loss of London and on their heels all game. Perhaps Moscow has even fallen, but it is obviously over by rd 4-5.
2 - Limited Success - Allies make it to rd 6-8 and still putting up a fight. They might be losing the game but UK is back in it and all three Allied capitals are still in Allied hands.
3 - Success - Allies make it to rd 9-10 and are still fighting. The Allies have recoverd from losing London and the game has turned into a “normal” dogfight.
4 - Great Success - The Allies hold on and win the game.
Personally, as the Allies, if I did lose London on turn 1 I’d be happy with any one of the last 3 definitions in that I gave myself a chance to comeback, but for the sake of this test I’ll be shooting for one of the last two.
We also don’t have to play the entire game, just a few rds to see how things shake out.
I’m actually kind of curious about this since I’ve never played with Tech or OOB rules.
This does sound like alot of fun.
I would love to try this out with you Darth. And I get to play the infamous darth too :)
:notworthy:
You did mention negotiability with this set up.
I tink if USSR gets 3 tanks in Ukraine, then Germany should get 1 plane left in UK.
In fact, in my dice sim, I get most common outcomes of the UK 1 grab is (12%) 1 tank, 1 ftr, 1 bomber and (12%) 1 tank, 1 bomber….
Battlemap or mapview?
Did you run that with only Inf, Arm, 4 Fighters, Bomber vs 2 Infantry, Artillery, Armor, 2 Fighters and a Bomber?
If you lose the bomber first (and assume one fighter was shot down by AA Fire) I get the following results:
Attacker results:
–------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Probability % # units / losses
0.1% 7: 1 Inf, 1 Arm, 4 Fig, 1 Bom
0.81% 6: 1 Arm, 4 Fig, 1 Bom
5.72% 5: 1 Arm, 3 Fig, 1 Bom
17.56% 4: 1 Arm, 2 Fig, 1 Bom
24.25% 3: 1 Arm, 1 Fig, 1 Bom
17.73% 2: 1 Arm, 1 Bom
10.6% 1: 1 Arm
23.23% 0: no units
Also, note, you have almost a 1 in 4 chance to lose and NOT take the capitol, despite getting the LRA technology.
This does sound like alot of fun.
I would love to try this out with you Darth. And I get to play the infamous darth too :)
:notworthy:You did mention negotiability with this set up.
I tink if USSR gets 3 tanks in Ukraine, then Germany should get 1 plane left in UK.In fact, in my dice sim, I get most common outcomes of the UK 1 grab is (12%) 1 tank, 1 ftr, 1 bomber and (12%) 1 tank, 1 bomber….
Battlemap or mapview?
I use Battlemap most of the time with in-house dicey.
Yeah, Germany can survive with a plane from London as well. You can choose ftr or bom.
About the odds, I did a manual LL (for results) b/c at least with Frood it goes by standard OOL (I’m not sure how to customise ool), but most players will lose the UK bom in the first wave since it is an amphib, thus I think odds for German success can be skewd slightly if this isn’t taken into account. The UK might only save the bom if Ger really got hammered in AA or only got like 1-2 hits. But I don’t have a problem Germany having a plane left over as well since it will probably help with the test.
Also this will probably be a slower pace game for me with tourney and league games going on, etc.
I use Battlemap most of the time with in-house dicey.
Yeah, Germany can survive with a plane from London as well. You can choose ftr or bom.Also this will probably be a slower pace game for me with tourney and league games going on, etc.
That all sounds great.
You or I can start a thread in the board games.
The pace sounds good, I have to do a few things right now.
Maybe tonight I will do Germanys turn
If you start the thread and have a battlemap with the above described set-up, that’ll save me some time.
Sounds good.
I’ll create the thread and post the initial map.
Okay, the game thread is here:
Hey Cmdr Jennifer where did you get these odds? I’ve done the battle on frood (2.0) with
1 Inf 5 Fig 1 Bom 1 Arm vs. 1 Bom 2 Inf 1 Art 1 Arm 2 Fig
(OOL as listed above) and I get the following results (with a AAGun):
Probability % - units
0.12% - 8: 1 Inf, 5 Fig, 1 Bom, 1 Arm.
0.36% - 7: 5 Fig, 1 Bom, 1 Arm.
0.02% - 7: 1 Inf, 5 Fig, 1 Arm.
0.02% - 7: 1 Inf, 4 Fig, 1 Bom, 1 Arm.
1.72% - 6: 4 Fig, 1 Bom, 1 Arm.
0.02% - 6: 5 Fig, 1 Arm.
4.88% - 5: 3 Fig, 1 Bom, 1 Arm.
0.22% - 5: 4 Fig, 1 Arm.
9.3% - 4: 2 Fig, 1 Bom,
0.42% - 4: 3 Fig, 1 Arm.
11.76% - 3: 1 Fig, 1 Bom, 1 Arm.
0.92% - 3: 2 Fig, 1 Arm.
11.5% - 2: 1 Bom, 1 Arm. (average result)
1% - 2: 1 Fig, 1 Arm. (average result)
8.8% - 1: 1 Arm. (median result)
48.94% - 0: no units.
That is the reason why I wouldn’t even try the sea lion with 1 fig destroyed by the russians.
The results with frood 1.0 where about the same, so I wonder why your odds are so much better
Ranor,
I got those numbers from Frood. I assumed 1 Fighter killed by the Russians on Russia 1 and 1 Fighter killed by the AA Gun in England and that Germany had succeeded in LRA.
That leaves:
Infantry
4 Fighters
Bomber
Armor
Attacking, in order of loss and
Bomber
2 Infantry
Artillery
Armor
2 Fighters
Defending, in order of loss
Note, the order of loss was changed so that the defending bomber was killed first to maximize the damage done to Germany.
This leaves a 1 in 4 chance of Germany FAILING to take London on Germany 1.
Axis,
The way to adjust the OOL on Frood really is not difficult. Just change the Bat to Bom and then the Bom to Bat and run the sim again. (Bats are always listed first, but you get the idea.) Just make sure to type the units in correctly, as they are already written under the attacker/defender line. Also, check for duplicate entries!
so we have a test game to watch
and its set to 5 LRA dice
I am hoping that means we have a consensus on outcome being obvious for case of getting LRA with fewer dice
