Unfortunately, the powers of both sides are not comparable to any of the games, so we can’t just play it out with side switching house rules (and other stuff too, but I’m just saying a new setup will need to be designed). The Soviets were even less modernised than in 1941. The real question is Germany. If Germany fights with the Soviets, (depends on what Hitler’s short term plan is) the outcome is uncertain, especially with Italy’s allegiance. It Germany fights against the Soviets, the Soviets would probably fall, especially if Japan can be convinced to jump into the war.
Best Luftwaffe 1940 addition
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The indicated numbers of the stated aircraft would all have been helpful to the Germans in fighting the war, but I’m not sure any of them would have enabled the Germans to actually win the war (either in 1940-41 or later), assuming that everything else about German strategy and tactics remained unchanged. Winning the war in 1940-41 (or at least taking a major step towards doing so) basically amounts to knocking out either Britain or Russia or both.
As far as defeating Britain goes, the two possible approaches would have been direct invasion (a successful Sealion) or economic strangulation (winning the Battle of the Atlantic). No Sealion-type amphibious invasion would have been possible without the Germans achieving solid control of the air over the Channel (someting for which more bombers and fighters would have been helpful), but even assuming such airspace control it’s debatable whether Germany had the equipment and the naval experience to mount a cross-Channel invasion. Britain and America, which were both first-rate naval powers, needed two years of build-up and training – plus the development of all sorts of specialized equipment such as the Higgins boat, the LST, the Mulberries and the PLUTO fuel pipeline – to pull off Overlord successfully. Germany, by contrast, viewed Sealion as basically just a large river crossing, and had to scrounge general-purpose river barges from all over western Europe to improvise an amphibious capability. The JU-52 would have had some use in landing troops as part of a primarily seaborne Sealion, but an invasion of Britain could not have been mounted (or kept supplied) by air alone.
As for defeating Britain purely from the air, more German bombers and fighters probably wouldn’t have been decisive either, especially given the way Goering kept flip-flopping on his choice of primary targets during the Battle of Britain. Even assuming a more focused campaign by the Luftwaffe, however, Germany simply wouldn’t have been able to destroy Britain’s ability or will to resist via strategic bombing alone. The British and American strategic bombing campaign against Germany in the period from 1943 to 1945 dwarfed the Luftwaffe’s efforts during the Battle of Britain, yet even this massive round-the-clock two-year-long campaign failed to break Germany on its own, despite the belief of generals like Harris and LeMay that airpower alone could win the war in Europe.
Regarding the Battle of the Atlantic goes, the FW-200 Condor did have some success in that theatre as an anti-ship bomber and as a recon plane for U-boats, so more of them would have been a plus on the German side in this strategically vital campaign. Unfortunately, the FW-200 was operated by the Luftwaffe (since Goering wanted to have control over anything that flew in Germany) rather than the Kriegsmarine. Inter-service cooperation between the Luftwaffe and the Kriegsmarine was poor, so operational use of the Condor wasn’t nearly as effective as it might have been. It’s also arguable whether adding more Condors without also adding more U-boats would have made a war-winning difference.
On the Russian side, I’m not sure that more aircraft (either bombers or fighters or transport planes) would have compensated for the various factors that caused Barbarossa to fail…things like the enormous logistical problems of operating on such a huge territory, the ability of the Russians to absorb massive losses yet keep fighting, the onset of the Russian winter and so forth.
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Nice post Marc. Thank you for your time and all your points.
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FW-200 Condors were a plague for British convoys making the “Gibraltar Run.” The Condors also were the long arm for the Axis in attacking Malta bound Convoys.
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The Ju-88 saw action in the Battle of Britain in small numbers. Being the only German bomber that was built as a war plane, instead of the other multi role “air mail” planes the plane could make good speed which gave its crews a better survival rate.
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@wittmann:
The 190 was a much better Fighter and I am sure its range was better, so I agree.
The 109 had a very short range and could not escort the Bombers far or even dogfight for more than a handful of minutes once over England.
The Battle of Britain was over before it entered service. I do not know when it appeared. Was it Autumn of 41?
Nice poll Worsham.You are correct the FW-1-90 made its first appearance in late 1941 over the Channel. Had this plane been escorting bombers over England, how would the Battle play out?
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Even with all of them combined, German Air Power would still need Boots on the ground to be able to make any meaningful gains.
What Germany lacked wasn’t so much equipment to fight with. They needed pilots, a better training regime maybe, or AF Academy
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I picked the FW-190. It was a better plane than the 109 about a third were lost to accidents alone. I guess we could even say pilots lost in the 109 might have survived had the been in the 190 and lived to fight another day.
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I picked the FW-190. It was a better plane than the 109 about a third were lost to accidents alone. I guess we could even say pilots lost in the 109 might have survived had the been in the 190 and lived to fight another day.
I have wondered how would a few early production FW-190 would have faired in the Battle of Britain. Those 20 mm cannons would make quick work of Hurricanes and Spitfires. With the English pilot supply in such short numbers could this have tipped the Battle?
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@ABWorsham:
I picked the FW-190. It was a better plane than the 109 about a third were lost to accidents alone. I guess we could even say pilots lost in the 109 might have survived had the been in the 190 and lived to fight another day.
I have wondered how would a few early production FW-190 would have faired in the Battle of Britain. Those 20 mm cannons would make quick work of Hurricanes and Spitfires. With the English pilot supply in such short numbers could this have tipped the Battle?
Maybe, Goering screwed that whole business up by not sticking to attacking radar and air bases. It’s just as good a point as any though, the RAF needed pilots.
My dad and I have discussed on many occasions that a heavy strategic bomber able to hit Russian industry could’ve tipped the scales toward Germany.
The 190 could’ve also helped defend Germany’s industry more had there actually been more of them defending against Allied bombing.
Then again who knows? Coulda, woulda, shoulda. That seems to be the German strategy in WWII. It’s like reminiscing about an ex-girlfriend that was a fabulous cook, hot looks and great in bed, however she was totally insane decided to start shooting the neighbors LOL.
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@ABWorsham:
like reminiscing about an ex-girlfriend that was a fabulous cook, hot looks and great in bed, however she was totally insane decided to start shooting the neighbors LOL.
I like the comparison!