Thank you for your answer, it helps a lot to see more clearly where this goes.
Your example fit whith no option on the table but it is a reference if AAA were all outs.
I borrow your post to insert it in my proposition:
@Cmdr:
If 1 AA Gun got 1 Shot per round in opening fire, as long as there existed at least 1 attacking plane, then there would be no need to have the 1/6 chance of the plane surviving being shot.
What I read, and I may have misread, was that each gun would get up to 3 shots per round. After a 10 round battle for Moscow, that’s 4 AA Guns at 12 planes (just using starting units, assuming no planes lost by Germany or if they were, they were rebuilt) so that’s:
12 Shots round 1, 2 hits on average
10 Shots round 2, 2 hits on average (rounding up)
8 Shots round 3, 1 hit on average (rounding down)
7 Shots round 4, 1 hit on average (rounding down)
6 Shots round 5, 1 hit on average
5 Shots round 6, 1 hit on average (rounding up)
4 Shots round 7, 1 hit on average (rounding up)
3 Shots round 8, No hits on average (rounding down)
3 Shots round 9, 1 hit on average (rounding up)
2 Shots round 10, no hits on average.
So you went from getting 2 hits on average with the current rules, to 10 hits on average with the proposed rules. That’s a SIGNIFICANT increase! It’s way more than is necessary to turn the tide of battle in Russia, and Germany has to hope to crush Russia pretty darn quick to win the game as it is now. (And hellz yes, I am keeping all four of those guns operational until it comes down to trading armored units or the number of attacking planes has been decimated to the point it’s not worth keeping them alive anymore!)
Option 1: AAA, a hit after 1st round force plane to withdraw.
Each gun would get up to 3 shots per round.
After a 10 round battle for Moscow, that’s 4 AA Guns at 12 planes:
12 Shots round 1, 2 hits on average 12/0 2 planes destroyed
10 Shots round 2, 2 hits on average (rounding up) 22/12 2 planes must retreat.
8 Shots round 3, 1 hit on average 30/24 1 plane must retreat
7 Shots round 4, 1 hit on average (rounding down) 37/30 1 plane must retreat
6 Shots round 5, 1 hit on average (rounding down) 43/36 1 plane must retreat
5 Shots round 6, 1 hit on average 48/42 1 plane must retreat
4 Shots round 7, 1 hit on average (rounding up) 52/48 1 plane must retreat
3 Shots round 8, no hit on average (rounding down)55/54
3 Shots round 9, 1 hit on average (rounding up) 58/54 1 plane must retreat
2 Shots round 10, no hit on average. 60/60
8 planes have retreated.
So you went from getting 2 hits on average with the current rules, to 10 hits on average with the proposed option 1.
This means Germany still kept 10 planes and only lose 2 planes.
But, there is only 2 planes on the battlefield.
Option 2:
Each gun would get up to 3 shots per round and 1 shot/rnd after first round.
After a 10 round battle for Moscow, that’s 4 AA Guns at 12 planes:
12 Shots round 1, 2 hits on average 2 planes destroyed
4 Shots round 2, 1hit on average (rounding up) 1 plane destroyed
4 Shots round 3, 1 hit on average (rounding up) 1 plane destroyed
4 Shots round 4, no hit to keep the average: 2 hits/12 shots
4 Shots round 5, 1 hit on average (rounding up) 1 plane destroyed
4 Shots round 6, 1 hit on average (rounding up) 1 plane destroyed
4 Shots round 7, no hit to keep the average
4 Shots round 8, 1 hit on average (rounding up) 1 plane destroyed
4 Shots round 9, 1 hit on average (rounding up) 1 plane destroyed
4 Shots round 10, no hits on average.
Option 2 results:
Get 4 times regular casualities = 8 planes will be destroyed on average but 4 planes will still be on the battlefield.
Option 3:
Each AAA gun would get up to 1 shot/1 plane (whichever is less) every round.
After a 10 round battle for Moscow, that’s 4 AA Guns at 12 planes:
4 Shots round 1, 1 hit on average (rounding up) 4/0 1 plane destroyed
4 Shots round 2, no hit to keep the average: 8/6
4 Shots round 3, 1 hit on average (rounding up) 12/6 1 plane destroyed
4 Shots round 4, 1 hit on average (rounding up) 16/12 1 plane destroyed
4 Shots round 5, no hit to keep the average: 20/18
4 Shots round 6, 1 hit on average 24/18 1 plane destroyed
4 Shots round 7, 1 hit on average (rounding up) 28/24 1 plane destroyed
4 Shots round 8, no hit to keep the average: 32/30
4 Shots round 9, 1 hit on average (rounding up) 36/30 1 plane destroyed
4 Shots round 10, 1 hit on average (rounding up) 40/36 1 plane destroyed
Option 3 results:
Get 3.5 times regular casualities = 7 planes will be destroyed on average but 5 planes will still be on the battlefield.
Option 4:
Each gun would get up to 3 shots per round at 1/18 rates of casualities.
After a 10 round battle for Moscow, that’s 4 AA Guns at 12 planes:
12 Shots round 1, 1 hit on average (rounding up) 12/18 1 plane destroyed
11 Shots round 2, no hit on average (rounding down) 23/18
11 Shots round 3, 1 hit on average (rounding up) 34/36 1 plane destroyed
10 Shots round 4, no hit on average (rounding down) 44/36
10 Shots round 5, 1 hit on average 54/54 1 plane destroyed
9 Shots round 6, 1 hit on average (rounding up) 63/72 1 plane destroyed
8 Shots round 7, no hit to keep the average : 71/72
8 Shots round 8, no hit on average (rounding down) 79/72
8 Shots round 9, 1 hit on average (rounding up) 87/72 1 plane destroyed
7 Shots round 10, no hit on average (rounding down) 94/90
Option 4 results:
5 planes will be destroyed on average and 7 planes will still be on the battlefield.
OOB rule (3 rolls@1 on 1st rnd only): 2 killed 10 remaining
Option 0 (3 rolls@1 after 1st rnd): 10 killed 2 remaining
Option 1 (3 rolls@1 after 1st rnd): 2 killed 2 stayin’ battle 8 compel to retreat planes
Option 2 (1 roll@1 after 1st rnd): 8 killed 4 remaining
Option 3 (1 roll@1 each rnd): 7 killed 4 remaining
Option 4 (3 rolls@1/18 always): 5 killed 7 remaining
Now we can better compare between them.
Do you think option 1 can still be viable and interesting purchase?
Since their is only 2 kills as OOB, but it can also hinder seriously an attacking Germany, for instance, by compeling all aircrafts being hit to withdraw from the battle. Some attacking punchs will be missing in combat for sure.
Planes are not destroyed, so no IPC directly lost but indirectly it is the case via the lack of airsupport to attack ennemy’s ground units and causing less casualities than expected.
And what about option 4? Is it still too overpowering?
And we didn’t consider at all taking some AAA as casualities, which could be a very possible option in a long lasting battle, which could mean lesser odds to make casualities on planes.