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Potential Flashpoint for Internatinal Conflict
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Instead of talking about potential flashpoints, how about we talk about actual ones, like this for instance
http://news.yahoo.com/turkey-authorizes-military-operations-syria-115920854.html
Is Turkey right in what it is doing or dose this just escalate things, and how should the Syrian resistance and the Turkish Military view eachother, as allies or potential enemies?
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Syria and Turkey view each other mostly as enemies.
Turkey would drop some whup-azz for sure if they wanted to though, or if the internationally community would allow it.
I support thier actions.
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I wonder if this will end up being like the Gulf of Tonkin incident. I too support Turkey, they used radar to determine where the incoming shells were being fired from and squashed that spot. A measured response to a minor incident.
Now if Turkey goes ahead with talk of a safe haven within Syria due to a looming refugee status that is a different animal and not withing the scope of that bill. I also note that a great number of Turk lawmakers voted against this and there are demonstrations against this reasonable bill and action. Great to see the ‘Generals’ control give way to actual democracy.
This the same ‘scary’ political party fear mongerers and pundits had been warning us against.
I find it interesting that Syria and Turkey had been pretty friendly in the past. But its all about religion. Turkey and FSA=Sunni versus Government=Alawite offshoot of Shia hated by Sunnis.
This does not have a Nelson Mandela moment in the ending.
Clyde, we do we have to choose what we talk about? Can’t we talk about potentials AND real incidents?
Syria versus the rest of the world does not have a world game changing ending but certainly changes things in the region. China fighting a regional neighbour in a hot war would in my opinion have world changing consequences. Although I didn’t specifically allude to this that was my thinking when I started this thread. I do appreciate your related link, thanks!
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An -external- conflict will probably be GOOD for the Syrians.
Especially if Turkey can be seen as the agressor… an outward enemy to focus on that’s worse than the current regime, and more international/local support.
Good move.
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I feel bad for the average alawite, not easy being a small hated minority. They will fight to the bitter end, they have little choice with the religious hatred brewing there.
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Soldier kills two commanding officers to defect!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19855313
I don’t think this would be a big deal anywhere else. But when the solider is North Korean and the south used loud speakers to guide him to safety into South Korea then that is a different story.
Something like this would cause daddy to initiate something to stir up the world, launching a missile over Japan or sinking a South Korean frigate. I wonder what his son will do to teach the capitalists pigs a lesson……
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I feel bad for the average alawite, not easy being a small hated minority. They will fight to the bitter end, they have little choice with the religious hatred brewing there.
The difference here is that the small hated minority isn’t an oppressed or persecuted minority. The Alawites are a minority that almost exclusively dominates the highest ranks of business, government, and the military where they have fostered a culture of superiority over the rest of the Syrians. It’s not like Assad has their default support due to fearful permissiveness; he enjoys fervent support for his brutality. Changes the whole innocence/guilt dynamic a bit. They share in the blood on Assad’s hands and I don’t feel any more sympathy for them than I did for the Sunnis in Iraq after Saddam was ousted.
I feel bad for the Alawite children who aren’t yet corrupted. Unfortunately for them, they will share in the collective beatdown that the Alawites are going to get when the rebels finally topple Assad.
Instead of talking about potential flashpoints, how about we talk about actual ones, like this for instance
http://news.yahoo.com/turkey-authorizes-military-operations-syria-115920854.html
Is Turkey right in what it is doing or dose this just escalate things, and how should the Syrian resistance and the Turkish Military view eachother, as allies or potential enemies?
I don’t think it’s right or wrong. It’s very complicated. It’s pretty clear that the rebels are, at least in part, being supplied through Turkey so there is somewhat of an alliance there. But, I don’t think that it’s the real reason for their decision.
There is a large Kurdish population on both sides of the Turkish/Syrian border and many of them want Turkey to cede part of it’s territory for an independent Kurdish state. As I understand it, Kurdish terrorists have been using Syria as a safe haven for their attacks inside Turkey. I don’t think Turkey cares so much about full scale war against Assad for humanitarian purposes as much as it is using these recent events as an excuse to possibly make a small incursion into Syria to root out their Kurdish enemies or at least suppress their actions if the attacks continue from across the border. Limited retaliatory shelling is just their first response.
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U-505, while I basically agree with what you have said especially about the Alawites being in control of the levers of power. I recently watched a video of an alawite community burying their dead. I agree they are on the wrong side of history, but the ‘average’ Alawite is not a local governor or general. They are a relatively poor parent burying a dead child. But they do feel like a cornered animal and yes partly due to their own actions, but only partly.
The Alawites would be oppressed even if they don’t have a history of blood on their hands. Alawites are a offshoot of Shia Islam. Many Sunnis are killing Shias just for being Shia. Al Qaeda supporters generally fall into this category. Shias are being killed in Pakistan by Sunnis all the time and if you look at Iraq, it’s Sunnis mostly bombing Shias, of course the Shia are now in charge of Iraq with the Sunni VP under a death sentence by the Shia administration. Alawites are considered far worse heretics than Shia by the majority Sunni. When the Alawite power structure falls, the powers that be knowing a blood bath will ensue if Sunni extremists are not reigned in ought to do everything they can to prevent a bloodbath.
Yes, Alawite leaders are gulity and yes the average uneducated alawite supporter is guilty of support of this murderous regime. I however suggest you check out this link. There are two sides to every story. In this case one side is very wrong but we can still feel for their plight I think and understand their point of view in order to help end this terrible situation.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19699446
and
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19425458
I think you are bang on vis-a-vis your observations on Turkey/Syria
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Damn. I want to continue this discussion but I keep forgetting. I’m 42 going on senile.
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I just came across this article today and thought it would fit in with this portion of the thread.
The headline…
Four minority Shia Hazaras are shot dead in Pakistan
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An interesting article on Syria via-a-vis Sunnis and Alawites and the parallel to the Spanish civil war.
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This thread started out with the south china sea. But of immediate concern would by Syria. I am a news junkie I will admit, but of a historical bent mainly. Some events play out slowly, Syria has been playing out for over a year in it’s most recent throes.
A few very recent events are changing things and I think we are seeing a tipping point.
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The rebels now actually control ground whereas months ago they did not. One reason why they said Syria was different from Libya, no territory held unlike Benghazi. Now that is not true.
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No unified control/leadership unlike the situation in Libya, that just changed a few days ago. Now country after country is starting to recognize somebody other than Assad as the true representatives of the Syrian people.
I dredged up this old thread because of two articles I read nearly back to back today. They both relate to the hatred by some radical Sunni Muslims against Shia Muslims and Alawite Muslims.
Syrians arrested in Lebanon with explosives
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20477874Pakistan bomb kills children near Shia procession
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20475064 -
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Syria and Pakistan are now part of China, or so says the new Chinese passports.
Soon they will finish the job and have China in control of the rest of the world on next years maps.
But if they could just build an Aircraft carrier….
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@Imperious:
But if they could just build an Aircraft carrier….
Hahaha. Everyone is so worried about the rise of China, but they are still working on getting that old diesel engine Soviet carrier working.
How many submarine launched nuclear ICBMs does it take to take out an old soviet rust-bucket? Well, none actually….
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This thread started out with the south china sea. But of immediate concern would by Syria. I am a news junkie I will admit, but of a historical bent mainly. � Some events play out slowly, Syria has been playing out for over a year in it’s most recent throes.
A few very recent events are changing things and I think we are seeing a tipping point.
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�The rebels now actually control ground whereas months ago they did not. One reason why they said Syria was different from Libya, no territory held unlike Benghazi. � Now that is not true.
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No unified control/leadership unlike the situation in Libya, that just changed a few days ago. �Now country after country is starting to recognize somebody other than Assad as the true representatives of the Syrian people.
Not only that, but I also read somewhere recently that the rebels had overrun 3 military bases including one near Aleppo that contained a couple tanks, a half dozen trucks, and a whole mess of munitions complete with rockets. Not that the vehicles wouldn’t become a priority target for the Syrian air force, but if the rebels could field some of that artillery, it would make a big difference in the balance of power.
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I wonder if Syria ought to be a thread on it’s own? Back to China and the south china sea.
There was mention of the ‘toy’ carrier that China picked up surplus from Ukraine.
China lands J-15 jet on Liaoning aircraft carrier
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-20483716While certainly nothing to tremble about, it’s their start to naval aviation. Combine that with their ICBM based carrier killer and the balance of power slowly shifts.
http://defensetech.org/2011/01/05/can-aegis-stop-chinas-carrier-killer-missiles/Combine this with a change to the China passport and you get….well not much really.
Vietnam refuses to stamp new Chinese passports over map
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20491426Just a few of the many tea leaves to read……
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look at China’s steel production, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_steel_production. In a long war China would rape.
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Depends where that war is man. (Oh and who is fighting. But I guess we are assuming USA.)
A land war somewhere in Asia, China probably the win. Anywhere else, it’s condition-dependant.
But then again, that is one of the classic blunders…
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Things are slowly grinding towards a confrontation in the South China Sea.
The head of Asean has said China’s plan to board ships in disputed areas of the South China Sea could escalate tensions.
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Things are slowly grinding towards a confrontation in the South China Sea.
The head of Asean has said China’s plan to board ships in disputed areas of the South China Sea could escalate tensions.
Cool, can’t wait for Larry’s new game Axis&Allies: World War III 2015!
Russia, China, Brazil(edit) vs Japan, India, American Empire, global map centered on Asia(edit), cut down Atlantic.
New Units: Hackers, Stealth Helicopters, and Drones :evil:
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