S03 Gamerman01 (allies +12) v JWW

3.86%

Yay - some evening out!

You need to land the bomber that is in Cau.  I won’t allow it to continuously bomb Stalingrad until J9 to do the maximum 8 damage….  :-)

You also moved 2 subs and destroyer from 51 to 53

UK move will actually be unaffected by the bomber placement, I think….
Probably need to be buying AA anyway.

UK8 with 31, buy 5 INF, 2 ARM, AA

Combat moves -
Sud - INF, FTR (Egy) 2 FTR (Z27)
Chi - FTR (Cau) BMB (Egy)
NWE - INF, ART (GBr) offload from 5
NWE - 2 FTR (Z5)
TrJ - INF (Egy)

NWERolls: 2@2 2@3; Total Hits: 42@2: (2, 1)2@3: (1, 3)Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 02@2: (6, 4)

SudRolls: 1@1 3@3; Total Hits: 11@1: (2)3@3: (3, 5, 4)Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 12@2: (4, 2)

Sud2Rolls: 3@3; Total Hits: 13@3: (6, 3, 5)Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (2)

ChiRolls: 1@3 1@4; Total Hits: 21@3: (1)1@4: (2)Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (1)

Well the dice make me look foolish again.  All I can do is play the numbers
It’s OK, I can afford it

Egy - FTR (Sud)
Alg - FTR (Sud) FTR (Cau)
Rus - BMB (Chi)
Bel - 2 INF (BSt) 7 INF, ART (EPl) ARM (Ura)
Kar - 3 INF, 3 ARM (GBr)
Z17 - TP, CV (Z27)
Z5 - 2 FTR (NWE)
Rho - ART (SAf)
Lib - AA (Egy)

Collect 28, 28 on hand

Don’t even talk to me about defensive 2’s.  Pretty sure you’ve been hitting around 50% so far.  Now I’m curious and will go check.  Nor about SBR.  You note that I’ve had success with SBR, and then prompty reel off a 6 on Caucasus.  :lol:  Always helps to complain, I always say.

Oh, and don’t forget that Rome wasn’t built in a day.

S3_JWW(x)_v_Gamerman01(12)_08d.AAM

@Gamerman01:

Don’t even talk to me about defensive 2’s.  Pretty sure you’ve been hitting around 50% so far.  Now I’m curious and will go check.

OK, the numbers are in.  You’re not hitting 50%, it just feels like it.  That’s why I like to check the numbers - to reconcile facts with feelings.  In the charts below, the results are the number of hits suffered by each power.  So, for example, in the first 4 rounds Russia faced a 29.6% hit rate from all Axis defending 2’s.

Rounds 1-4 totals (facing defensive 2’s only):
G      2/18      11.1%
R      8/27      29.6%
J      6/22      27.3%
UK    5/9          55.6%
I      2/4          50%
US    3/8          37.5%

Axis    10/44    22.7%  (Yeah, that was noticeable)
Allies  16/44    36.4%  (a little worse than average over 4 rounds)

Round 5-7 1/2 totals
G    8/22      36.4%  (Can’t get lucky forever)
R    18/53      34.0%
J      9/21      42.9%  (Ouch)
UK  7/19        36.8% 
I      1/8          12.5%
US    1/2          50%

Axis  18/51      35.3%
Allies  26/74    35.1%

Game totals
Axis  28/95    29.5%
Allies  42/118  35.6%

Yep, you’ve been lucky so far.  But not lucky enough.  :-)

@Gamerman01:

@Gamerman01:

Round 5-7 1/2 totals

No, that should be round 8 1/2.  3 1/2 rounds of play.

SBR results

Allies
0/6 hits from AA on SBR
22 damage total, for a 3.67 damage average (3.5 expected)

Axis
0/0 hits from AA on SBR
11 damage total on 3 runs, for a 3.67 damage average (exactly the same as Allies)

Other AA
Allies
Missed twice

Axis
Missed thrice

So as far as lucky SBR’s, I’m about 1 bomber ahead and 4.5 damage ahead (downed bomber would do no damage except kill a couple of random cows)

So it seems you are also subject to personal bias (aren’t we all) and in fact we’ve both had close to average luck with SBR’s (with me so far being slightly luckier than average)

Yeah, I like crunching numbers.  It’s what I do.  :-)  Seems to translate into a lot of A&A success, too.

Very interesting when the numbers are crunched!

@JWW:
yeah I remembered this as I drove home from work yesterday, been incredibly busy, sorry……land it in IND…I think that should be fine?
Yeah…… I thought about buying a tank instead of AA if you were out of range, but no, I do want that AA gun, so it is fine as it is, yes.

I definitely don’t think it’s been even.  Red October success has been more than offset by other things - like when you cleaned up Congo, you were most likely to lose between 2 and 5 planes, and quite possibly not clear it at all.  You only lost 3.

It is difficult to really accurately and objectively evaluate the overall luck of a game.  Defensive 2’s is a pretty decent indicator.  Besides the sub/cruiser battles, it ignores the horrible offense of the Russians.  A big reason the Russians have faced 80 defending die rolls on a 2 is because the Russians have missed so often.

To be clear, I’m not trying to make a big deal or prove that you have been luckier than me.  I was only looking into my own assertion that it seems you’ve hit so much on 2’s, so I looked at the actual results.  I found that it hasn’t been as bad as I thought (First 4 rounds of Germany notwithstanding).