Italy a bad design

i guess i meant to say the CA blocks the DD and CV if he wanted to attack my main fleet. only planes can reach.

I was looking at a interesting long shot at stopping the Italian fleet destruction…

I went in with the assumption that the only thing that needs to happen is disabling the CV in 91, and the UK can’t pull off the strategy - he’ll have no landing place for his aircraft.

The Germans have 2 subs in range of zone 91, at 103 and 108.

The UK has 1 CV, 1 DD, and 1 TAC.

So 2 @ 2 VS 2 @ 2 and 1 @ 3, no sneak shots apply.

From an initial glance, this looks really bad.

Yes the Germans have an outright chance of hitting both shots (1/6 total), that’s pretty extreme.

Rather, what happens if both sides just get 1 hit and it goes to the second round - a more likely possibility?

What is the UK player supposed to take as his casualty?  He can’t absorb it with the TAC…  If he just absorbs it with the CV, then mission accomplished the TAC can’t be used and no planes can land on the CV to use against the Italian fleet.  But wait, if he takes the hit with the DD then life gets real interesting - his TAC no longer hit the sub!  Making it an even contest - sub vs CV for the rest of the fight.

Anyways, this needs some play testing - it is risky but I’m just curious if it’s worth a shot to try and save the Italian BB and transport.

@LordFoul:

I was looking at a interesting long shot at stopping the Italian fleet destruction…

I went in with the assumption that the only thing that needs to happen is disabling the CV in 91, and the UK can’t pull off the strategy - he’ll have no landing place for his aircraft.

The Germans have 2 subs in range of zone 91, at 103 and 108.

The UK has 1 CV, 1 DD, and 1 TAC.

So 2 @ 2 VS 2 @ 2 and 1 @ 3, no sneak shots apply.

From an initial glance, this looks really bad.

Yes the Germans have an outright chance of hitting both shots (1/6 total), that’s pretty extreme.

Rather, what happens if both sides just get 1 hit and it goes to the second round - a more likely possibility?

What is the UK player supposed to take as his casualty?  He can’t absorb it with the TAC…  If he just absorbs it with the CV, then mission accomplished the TAC can’t be used and no planes can land on the CV to use against the Italian fleet.  But wait, if he takes the hit with the DD then life gets real interesting - his TAC no longer hit the sub!  Making it an even contest - sub vs CV for the rest of the fight.

Anyways, this needs some play testing - it is risky but I’m just curious if it’s worth a shot to try and save the Italian BB and transport.

I damage the CV, tac lands in Gibraltar. On UK’s turn, carrier gets repaired by Gibraltar naval base, and Britian can use the air base and thus can attack with 2 ftrs(1 from England), the tac landing on Malta

Your right, I reread where repair happens in the rules - makes this a non starter.

I went in with the assumption that the only thing that needs to happen is disabling the CV in 91, and the UK can’t pull off the strategy

The key is to force UK to fear losing UK to invasion. If this fear is great enough using my plan he can only really get after a CA and if he does this i got the rest of his fleet. If he still goes for Italy, ill just send part of my fleet to Medd and kill him.

Actually not really. The cruiser makes my BB and CV with 2 fighters protected against 3 of his fighters attacking on UK1.

His navy is blocked entirely against SZ 112.  I have 2 subs each on each side to block a DD from coming in.

It’s not just a question about if the UK wants to attack the German fleet, but also about if it needs to attack it at all …

These two battles for example. First there’s the chance of the defending UK fleet scoring enough hits to eliminate all the submarine blockers (roughly a 20% and 30% chance). Then there’s also the smaller, but still very real, risk of losing aircraft if the attackers don’t score enough hits to prevent a second round (roughly a 10% and 15% chance).

I could fix SZ 109 attack and replace with bomber, and put the fighter with the BB attack.

The first attack IS a coin flip, but the others are not. I expect to lose 2-3 subs and a BB hit. If i roll down i expect to lose a fighter or bomber in SZ 109.

The first attack is actually even worse odds than an even coin flip (roughly a 35% chance of complete success) because the German attack also “fails” if the defending destroyer scores a hit while going down itself … only a “clean kill” works, otherwise the surviving transport would still bring reinforcements to the UK.

The attack on SZ109 gives you about a 45% chance of losing the bomber. Very costly victory that could turn out to be.

There’s also the 25% chance of losing an aircraft in the attack on SZ112.

One CA blocks at SZ 104 the subs block either DD.

If i lose both subs in one battle, i think i can still win against 3 fighters and DD against a 2 hit CV BB and 2 fighters.

This both protects my main fleet that is coming out, causes UK to avoid attacking Italian fleet, Gives Germany a chance for Sealion, kills most of UK’s fleet, and kills the balance of UK’s fleet on the next turn if they choose to attack my CA on UK1.

So my point remains that the combined risks will very likely leave Germany in a position where operation Sealion is no longer a serious threat to the UK. Simply build a stack of additional infantry, which can later be used in amphibious assaults anyway, and go ahead with other plans such as killing the Italian fleet or sink the German cruiser and start concentrating for early landings in Europe …

65% chance of reinforcements from Canada
10%, 15%, 25% chances of losing a fighter
45% chance of losing the bomber
Depending on the remaining Luftwaffe, a high % chance of an AA kill during Sealion as well.

That said, personally I never really like strategies that turn out to be a game-deciding gamble during the first few turns. Where’s the fun in that? (… even if it does work sometimes) I prefer something that results in a more long-term stronger position on the board. Less dramatic perhaps, but usually a lot more effective with little chance of a critical backfire.

In this case I would probably buy a carrier + destroyer + submarine for Germany. Kill the British home fleet with massive overkill and concentrate the German surface fleet in SZ112, land the Luftwaffe in Holland as much as possible. The main threat of this would be to place an economic blockade on the UK and possibly Canada … so the choice for the UK would be: kill the Italian fleet and lose up to 11 IPC each round, or leave the Italians and try to break the blockade.

… and even if the Italian fleet goes down, I’m curious if the UK can keep the Axis out of Egypt long enough to really matter (but that depends on the new situation in the Pacific and that’s another discussion).

8-)

These two battles for example. First there’s the chance of the defending UK fleet scoring enough hits to eliminate all the submarine blockers (roughly a 20% and 30% chance). Then there’s also the smaller, but still very real, risk of losing aircraft if the attackers don’t score enough hits to prevent a second round (roughly a 10% and 15% chance).

subs cant be attacked unless you got a DD.

The first attack is actually even worse odds than an even coin flip (roughly a 35% chance of complete success) because the German attack also “fails” if the defending destroyer scores a hit while going down itself … only a “clean kill” works, otherwise the surviving transport would still bring reinforcements to the UK.

The sims i used don’t show this. 40% to 40% and 20% tie

The attack on SZ109 gives you about a 45% chance of losing the bomber. Very costly victory that could turn out to be.

The sims do not show this: 57.1% winning to 14.8% losing and 28% tie

There’s also the 25% chance of losing an aircraft in the attack on SZ112.

and a 75% chance of not? Ill take that chance any day.

So my point remains that the combined risks will very likely leave Germany in a position where operation Sealion is no longer a serious threat to the UK. Simply build a stack of additional infantry, which can later be used in amphibious assaults anyway, and go ahead with other plans such as killing the Italian fleet or sink the German cruiser and start concentrating for early landings in Europe …

65% chance of reinforcements from Canada

40% to 40% and 20% tie

10%, 15%, 25% chances of losing a fighter

vs 90%, 85% and 75% of not? I don’t make

45% chance of losing the bomber

14.8% losing and 28% tie

Depending on the remaining Luftwaffe, a high % chance of an AA kill during Sealion as well.

That said, personally I never really like strategies that turn out to be a game-deciding gamble during the first few turns. Where’s the fun in that? (… even if it does work sometimes) I prefer something that results in a more long-term stronger position on the board. Less dramatic perhaps, but usually a lot more effective with little chance of a critical backfire.

This is not what the plan is meant to be. Its only a way to stop the UK attack on Italy, while producing minimal loses to Germany and to equalize on G2 with further exchanges. If this goes well, uk will pull back. At a minimum, Germany needs to take off the majority of the UK fleet and protect its navy. It cant do this unless it brings the fleet out to assist in SZ 112 and by which allows uk to send its Gibraltar fleet as soakers for its fighters.

I put the end to that in my solution with the CA block. If he wants to attack my fleet he must use planes and if he takes this chance he has a 2% chance of winning it. If he fails i got UK.

Either way he wont attack Italy and thats the entire point.

In this case I would probably buy a carrier + destroyer + submarine for Germany. Kill the British home fleet with massive overkill and concentrate the German surface fleet in SZ112, land the Luftwaffe in Holland as much as possible. The main threat of this would be to place an economic blockade on the UK and possibly Canada … so the choice for the UK would be: kill the Italian fleet and lose up to 11 IPC each round, or leave the Italians and try to break the blockade.

I don’t advise this. Your not playing to your strength as Germany. You must assist your buys to latter shuck units to Russia. Buying 2 AP gets Germany 3 AP total and they can shuck to Finland, after G1. That naval buy for you will do nothing against Russia. A blockade against Canada is over when USA takes over. You can still blockade UK as my plan brings 4 subs closer to Germany.

… and even if the Italian fleet goes down, I’m curious if the UK can keep the Axis out of Egypt long enough to really matter (but that depends on the new situation in the Pacific and that’s another discussion).

Italy cant lose those ships. If it can keep them, they can help Italy hold the medd longer or swing them to the Baltic as some point to support Germany.

Either way if he has them, UK has a much harder time rebuilding a new fleet because it will die each turn with the combined Italian/ German naval presence.

@Imperious:

These two battles for example. First there’s the chance of the defending UK fleet scoring enough hits to eliminate all the submarine blockers (roughly a 20% and 30% chance). Then there’s also the smaller, but still very real, risk of losing aircraft if the attackers don’t score enough hits to prevent a second round (roughly a 10% and 15% chance).

subs cant be attacked unless you got a DD.

Defending ships can shoot back against attacking submarines. Not that I would complain if the casualties could only be taken by the aircraft though …  :wink:

The first attack is actually even worse odds than an even coin flip (roughly a 35% chance of complete success) because the German attack also “fails” if the defending destroyer scores a hit while going down itself … only a “clean kill” works, otherwise the surviving transport would still bring reinforcements to the UK.

The sims i used don’t show this. 40% to 40% and 20% tie

Keep in mind what those numbers actually mean. A tie, both sides scoring a kill, would actually be a victory for the Allies under these circumstances because it means the transport will survive and bring extra units to the UK.

So without going to deep into the math, in that simulation the results of a tie would actually need to be added to that of an Allied victory. That way you the odds of the transport surviving … which is what it’s all about.

The attack on SZ109 gives you about a 45% chance of losing the bomber. Very costly victory that could turn out to be.

The sims do not show this: 57.1% winning to 14.8% losing and 28% tie

The same as above. A tie would mean both the destroyer and the bomber going down … so the odds of Germany losing that very valuable bomber are the combined values of the Allied victory and a tie.

10%, 15%, 25% chances of losing a fighter

vs 90%, 85% and 75% of not?

It’s not about who wins those sea battles, which is obviously going to be Germany. What I’m trying to show is what the cost might be to Germany. This is very important because the only thing that really matters is if there is a CREDIBLE THREAT OF OPERATION SEALION during the second turn. Lose too many units, or allow too many reinforcements to reach the UK and it will no longer be forced to skip the attack on the Italian fleet.

• The combined odds of losing an aircraft during these G1 attacks is about 70%, of which the bomber runs the biggest risk.
• There’s a 65% chance of reinforcements from Canada reaching the UK.
• There’s an 80% chance of losing another aircraft to AA during Sealion itself.

On a sidenote: Another poster mentioned that the UK could buy a carrier for SZ110 so that a fighter from the UK could reach the Baltic Sea and still land on the new carrier. I’m away from my rulebook so I’m not totally sure this will work. This would really break the strategy of buying lots of transports in the Baltic and trying to block the Gibraltar UK fleet from reaching it. So would it work?

8-)

UK could buy a carrier for SZ110 so that a fighter from the UK could reach the Baltic Sea and still land on the new carrier.

It matters not. The point is my main fleet is safe from attack because he cant bring naval soakers. He must use planes only and he does not have enough.

If he wants to build a CV thats even better, now it sinks because its easy for me to get at it.

Defending ships can shoot back against attacking submarines. Not that I would complain if the casualties could only be taken by the aircraft though

We are talking about " killing my subs". thats not possible unless you got destroyer. I will sink them and the other is blocked with the CA. So subs protected for UK 1.

Keep in mind what those numbers actually mean. A tie, both sides scoring a kill, would actually be a victory for the Allies under these circumstances because it means the transport will survive and bring extra units to the UK.

It actually means that the DD wont be an issue to force me to ‘divert’ forces to both sink it and commit sealion. THis adds to the UK desire that if he still has that AP, he will protect it and this means his carrier comes back to UK. Thats the point. I diverted him from attacking Italy.  A tie forces him to land the tank and inf and also protect the AP with ships.

Also if i kill a DD and lose a sub i still gain in net IPC.

It’s not about who wins those sea battles, which is obviously going to be Germany. What I’m trying to show is what the cost might be to Germany. This is very important because the only thing that really matters is if there is a CREDIBLE THREAT OF OPERATION SEALION during the second turn. Lose too many units, or allow too many reinforcements to reach the UK and it will no longer be forced to skip the attack on the Italian fleet.

This is possible with any battle. The fact is the UK fleet must be dealt with regardless of UK’s or Germany’s intentions latter.  If you compare these battles with the standard AAR, 2nd edition, of AA50 standard attacks on UK fleet on G1, they also have a similar risk. You cant play the game without risk. These attacks are not really sketchy except the coin flip attack. The plan allows Germany to bring that sub back to attack with the bomber, leaving the Canadian units alone.

The key provision is my CA block, which protects my fleet allowing me to kill him and not have to deal with a credible counter. If everything goes right he must forget Italy and come back. This is the only plan that can do that and both protect the main fleet.

I posted my reply in the other thread ( http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=20063.0 ) so it’s a bit easier to follow. No use having two threads about the same confusing the discussion!

8-)