German navy

[Imperious Leader]

2. Your bid (assuming one of 5), likely means a tank for an attack in Egypt. The attack [14 O vs 9D] will usually result in Egypt being German R1.

3. You have a sub + BB + 2-3 fighters attack the UK BB off Gibraltar. The expected result is NO GERMAN LOSS.

4. The Med transport takes an INF which takes GIBRALTAR. Therefore, only a UK Bomber and DD can reach to attack a BB, Transport and sub. Which is a BAD attack. (7O vs 7D) but 3 units and a free BB hit. The fleet combines in SZ7, so add a BB and Transport to what you had listed.

5. Given this, you totally underestmate what lives and combines in SZ7.

Your post which i take as a rebuttal of the idea of german fleet unification occuring on G2 in Sea Zone #6 has nothing to do with the issue. Where do you even get this SZ#7 thing from? The British are blocking the Germans in SZ#6 and your medd fleet takes 3 turns to get to SZ#6  Additionally, Your basically telling us about what happens in Egypt and western Medd, which we allready both maintain is probably the case… and then using these examples to say that the conclusion regarding the german fleet unification is incorrect? Huh?

Squirecam i simply dont understand why you ignored this:

Now the primary method of the plan was originally a “threat” of Sealion in addition to the idea of moving the baltic fleet to the medd. Thus if you built a CV and 3 AP you would be loading probably 1 tank/1 infantry on each for a total of 4 tanks/ 4 infantry= 16 hit points=about 3 hits first round.  The British player would have 1 fighter (USA), 2 Bombers ( one USA), 2 tanks,2 Inf,1 art= 18 points against 16 attacking points/ 8 hits vs.8 hits.

Now this option of Sealion is very remote because of 3 things: 1) your weaker, 2) to even maintain the odds your exchanging the luftwaffe instead of transports which is futile and 3) Your probably tossing the game away because in order to win you have to come from behind in both battles to get marginally ahead.

Now the British build a CV and Destroyer on Uk1 (save 2) and move the Soviet sub and the rest of her fleet= 1 ss,1 bb,1 ap,1 cv,1 dd, 2 fighters=21 hit points= about 4 hits first round

against:

The german fleet of 1 cv, 5-6 fighters,2 subs,4 ap,1 dd, 1 bomber= 27-30 hit points= 5 hits first round.

after round one the brits lose all except 1 bb and 2 fighters= leaving 12 points=2 hits
Germans lose either 4 transports ( if you dont load them up) leaving 1 cv,5-6 fighters, 1 dd,2 ss, 1 bomber= 27-30 points …or keeping the trannys they have lost 1 cv,1 dd, 2 ss

Second round:

UK fleet is gone and germans take 2-3 more hits

leaving the german fleet with 7 hits total and ONE ship left (perhaps the CV if they are lucky)

Now for the money…

UK/Soviets  lost 1 ss,1 bb,1 ap,1 cv,1 dd, 2 fighters= 8+24+8+16+24=80 ipc

GERMANY LOST: 4 AP,2 ss, 1 dd AND POSSIBLY 1 cv which is 32+16+12=60 and possibly (its real close and we are assuming a 6th german fighter) an additonal 16 IPC= 76 IPC total.

Now i can see that the USA player would like to kill that german carrier and leave the BB alone and move the american bomber and fighter from england along with the 2 trannys and destroyer and kill that carrier and both planes

1 fighter, 1 bomber, 1 dd, 2 ap= 10/5 hits vs 1 cv and 2 fighter= 11/3 hits leaving the german fleet and 2 fighters gone in 2 rounds

Money= Germans cause 3 hits in 2 rounds and USA loses 3 ships 12+16=28 vs. German fleet/ fighters gone 24+16= 40 IPC gain for allies =12

If germany does not protect the carrier with fighters then its a net gain of 8 IPC for allies ( each side takes one hit).

Conclusion:

The allies have merely exchanged IPC with the german player in the North sea battle of Sz#6 The germans gained about 4 IPC from all of that

The Allies gain from the followup USA players turn when he finished off any german units.

Now if the german player built 3 subs instead of 3 tranny he gains one hit and on the second round the allies lose one hit leaving one additional german ship as escort in the event the CV is lucky enough to stay afloat.

Thus Germany has invested 40 IPC, left the Soviets alone to gain a full turn to reinforce themselves, possibly allowed the British player to keep his medd destroyer and or the territory of egypt because he had to have all his fighters within range of SZ#6. Thet means no fighters in africa. The basic moves for germany have all been ignored in order to facilitate some showdown in the north sea.

Also you have left a hole in the baltic that cant be closed.

Switch is correct. The threat is a failure as well as the channel dash idea is a total unmittigated failure.

Channel Dash is a total waste.

The worst thing about this as germany the land power you have played into the strength of the Allies by trying to challange them. You totally ignore the buildup of the russian campaign to play ‘catchup’ with the british fleet and simply exchange value. Id spend the 40 IPC in a more wiser manner to actually gain the net value as a result of land buys slowly gaining against the Russian player in back and forth land battles.

You have also gained marginally some tempo from the allies as they build/ rebuild her fleet, but the hole left in the baltic makes it easier for the allies to take france because now you have to protect germany AND france from harrasment invasions. This is a process that is accelerated by losing the baltic fleet.

For germany only either land buys or some naval buy in the baltic seem good for germany. If you buy for baltic either a CV or DD ( defence by installment idea)

If you want a fleet in the medd you better buy something for that.

Again the UK player is blocking Germany in SZ#6 if the germans come up from the medd they can be blocked/Attacked by USA on USA1 or by UK2 with the British leaving  SZ#6 and attacking the smaller German fleet in #7. Then they place more builds and wait for G3 which by then is a total waste because Germany is using her air force on a 3 turn adventure, while the eastern front left with no defense.

[squirecam]

@Imperious:

Squirecam i simply dont understand why you ignored this:

Now the British build a CV and Destroyer on Uk1 (save 2) and move the Soviet sub and the rest of her fleet= 1 ss,1 bb,1 ap,1 cv,1 dd, 2 fighters=21 hit points= about 4 hits first round

against:

The german fleet of 1 cv, 5-6 fighters,2 subs,4 ap,1 dd, 1 bomber= 27-30 hit points= 5 hits first round.

after round one the brits lose all except 1 bb and 2 fighters= leaving 12 points=2 hits
Germans lose either 4 transports ( if you dont load them up) leaving 1 cv,5-6 fighters, 1 dd,2 ss, 1 bomber= 27-30 points …or keeping the trannys they have lost 1 cv,1 dd, 2 ss

Second round:

UK fleet is gone and germans take 2-3 more hits

leaving the german fleet with 7 hits total and ONE ship left (perhaps the CV if they are lucky)

1. Because your MATH, as you like to say, is incorrect. 21 D = 3.5 hits. So its is an average of 3 or 4 the first round.

2. The second round, you have Uk with 1 BB and 2 fighters (12). Then you say UK has 2-3 hits. Except the expected hits are 2, NOT 2-3.

3. Besides THOSE errors, you forget that G1 they lose 3-4 transports. They still have 2 SUBS. If either hits, the BB is sunk, WITHOUT GETTING TO HIT BACK. So your expected hits back could be 1-2 rather than 2.

In essence, to prove your “theory” you have UK getting far more hits than it otherwise would have.

In the attack, Germany is likely to lose its 4 transports.  Perhaps even 5 hits. THATS ABOUT IT.  BUT CERTAINLY NOT 7.

In essence, your errors are one on top of the other. Because more survives, more merges in SZ 7, which means germany gains alot more by doing the move than you say it does.

Squirecam

[goldenbearflyer]

Oh, for goodness sake, Imperious and squire should just play this out. :lol:  I would love to see it in action, seriously.

[Imperious Leader]

Now the British build a CV and Destroyer on Uk1 (save 2) and move the Soviet sub and the rest of her fleet= 1 ss,1 bb,1 ap,1 cv,1 dd, 2 fighters=20 hit points= about
3-4 hits first round.

against:

The german fleet of 1 cv, 5-6 fighters,2 subs,4 ap,1 dd, 1 bomber= 27-30 hit points= 5 hits first round.

I also rounded up the germans because its possible they would have only 27 for G2 attack on SZ#6 because possibly the Soviets too one out or Egypt needed one.
This is not fuzzy math.

If the british take 5 hits from her fleet (1 ss,1 bb,1 ap,1 cv,1 dd, 2 fighters)… leaves a 1/2 BB and 2 fighters

after round one the brits lose all except 1 bb and 2 fighters= leaving 12 points=2 hits worth
Germans lose either 4 transports ( if you dont load them up) leaving 1 cv,5-6 fighters, 1 dd,2 ss, 1 bomber= 27-30 points …or keeping the trannys they have lost 1 cv,1 dd, 2 ss

Nothing wrong here either. If you dont like fractions i guess i can just give the germans only 4 hits due to 27 rather than 30.

The german fleet of 1 cv, 5-6 fighters,2 subs,1 dd, 1 bomber is left= 27-30= 5 hits
Vs.
The British fleet of 1 BB and 2 fighters… 12= 2 hits

germans takes out UK fleet
Uk takes out 2 german subs.

Germans lost 4 AP and 2 SS= 48 IPC
UK/Soviets  lost 1 ss,1 bb,1 ap,1 cv,1 dd, 2 fighters= 8+24+8+16+24=80 ipc

Net +32 allied loss

German fleet is 1 dd and 1 carrier w/ 2 planes.= 14= 2 hits
On USA’s second turn they arrive with 2 fighters, 3 Bombers, 2 transports and cruiser ( built 2 bombers) =21 or 4 hits which is good by to german fleet, and german fleet gets 2 transports

Germany loses 16+24+12= 52
American loses 16 ipc

net -36 allied gain

allies gain 4 IPC from this exchange.

Oh, for goodness sake, Imperious and squire should just play this out. cheesy  I would love to see it in action, seriously.

Hey is not just me saying this Darth and ncscswitch have the same opinion… while U-505 is pretty much against the idea as well.

If i write a paper can i also say " hey dont argue with me i wrote a paper on this" It seems to be a strong thing to hide behind these days.

[squirecam]

Your buying bombers now???

If USA were to be dumb enough to buy them, you would simply hold back the CV from the attack to merge it in SZ7 with the BB,  sacrificing a fighter if need be, or retreat after thrashing the UK fleet and leaving the UK BB.

2 bombers is a waste of IPC and wont help the allies much at all.

I cant see how this would be a good allied purchase….

Squirecam

[goldenbearflyer]

@squirecam:

Your buying bombers now???

If USA were to be dumb enough to buy them, you would simply hold back the CV from the attack to merge it in SZ7 with the BB, sacrificing a fighter if need be, or retreat after thrashing the UK fleet and leaving the UK BB.

2 bombers is a waste of IPC and wont help the allies much at all.

I cant see how this would be a good allied purchase….

Squirecam

He’s got you there, Imperious.  I agree with much of your analysis, but don’t see why you need 2 bom to make it work.  We need a cage match to settle this.  I love Days of Wonder; it’s possible to observe some of their online games.  Would love to watch you two duke it out, squire as Axis.

[Imperious Leader]

Your buying bombers now???

If USA were to be dumb enough to buy them, you would simply hold back the CV from the attack to merge it in SZ7 with the BB,  sacrificing a fighter if need be, or retreat after thrashing the UK fleet and leaving the UK BB.

2 bombers is a waste of IPC and wont help the allies much at all.

I cant see how this would be a good allied purchase….

Well I’m not exactly doing anything “now” it was just a possible counter to the German unification that is now 3 turns in the making…

If your gonna “now” not bring in the carrier and leave it in the Baltic, then I guess UK can save additional 24 Point BB from the loss ledger. Now since your not going out of of that hole. I guess the Americans can then kill the other German fleet in SZ #7 instead which is much better on paper in terms of net IPC gain to Allies, While i also gained from the UK battleship.

Should i do the extrapolations on this?

Or are you now gonna say "hey then ill just leave may force in the Baltic and leave the medd fleet in the medd… which is in fact the starting point of the game… so why is this a good idea after all of this?

UK and USA are in a better position. Once that UK BB survives the UK2 attack its totally over… I just rebuild my fleet and things are even worse for germany.

I think this idea was one of those “window of opportunity” strategies… Its not a long term battle because germany only has the one wad of ships to play with.

BTW this is much better discourse than before. Congratulations. :-D

[Imperious Leader]

I agree with much of your analysis, but don’t see why you need 2 bom to make it work.

The idea was to sweep up the balance of baltic fleet which is out of position.

Yes but i was offering what i thought was the counter to unification. If now they say that “gee i never planned on such an idea ever” then i guess I would have to try something else in terms of counter because now this is going from an active plan to a mere threat of a plan.

I suppose fighters could work as well  but they dont reach SZ 6…. ok so i got 30+ to spend… so whats wrong with 2 bombers?.. what would you suggest the build be… remember it has to reach SZ # 7 or 6 by USA2.

I can get to Sea Zone 6 with fighters only

I suppose a different force would required if i went against the medd fleet leaving and going to #7  That is a sub, BB and tranny= 4 hit fleet/ 1 hit per round

The USA force could go after that instead.

[frood]

okay goys like sewiously…

instead of all this talking, let’s see this played out in practice… I’d like to see this discussions carried out in actual play, as in “here’s my play, how do you counter THAT”.

For analysis purposes, it’d be best to do this with No Luck, so you can see what the expected result would be.

[Imperious Leader]

I dont play online. Can you just play it out yourself… or better yet you play germany and follow the script. Ill post the counters or others can do it instead. Remember you have to follow the plan to its logical conclusion. Buy the 3 AP and 1 CV on turn one, and goto sz 6 and attack on G2

Also your medd fleet has to take gibralter and post at west medd. on G2 it has to come out together at #7

Ill post UK moves.

Do Low luck and whatever else you use. so we can compare different results for average.

Remember we allready went this route and got not takers. I guess that was an idea that needs no testing… like most scientific theroy it does not need to be proven ( note hidden sarcasm)

[newpaintbrush]

@Imperious:

Now the British build a CV and Destroyer on Uk1 (save 2)

Invasion of London?

[newpaintbrush]

@froodster:

okay goys like sewiously…

instead of all this talking, let’s see this played out in practice… I’d like to see this discussions carried out in actual play, as in “here’s my play, how do you counter THAT”.

For analysis purposes, it’d be best to do this with No Luck, so you can see what the expected result would be.

No Luck does NOT give expected results.

Flip a coin 4 times.  What’s the odds of 2 heads and 2 tails?

According to No Luck, it’s 100%.

According to actual probability - 37.5%.

A system that indicates a 100% likelihood of something that is actually only 37.5% likely to occur in acutality is not an accurate predictor of expected results.

God, kids these days and their “average results”!

If I eat 80 pounds of food every day over the course of a year, and 19 other people eat 0 pounds of food every day over the course of a year, should I say that on average, we each had four pounds a day?  SURE, because it’s TRUE, isn’t it?  But of course what REALLY happens is you have one extremely fat owl, and nineteen people dead of starvation!

D*** statistics anyways!

–

Things you get in mail order should always have a warranty and a return policy, and preferably a 100% satisfaction guarantee.

Since I do not believe mail order brides fall into that category, I will not order a mail order bride at this time.

However, if a company should exist that does offer those features for mail order brides, I will order, um, twelve.

[JamesG]

I’m not going to comment on if I think a German navy is a good or bad idea, because frankly I’m not sure.  But I will comment on this

@froodster:

instead of all this talking, let’s see this played out in practice… I’d like to see this discussions carried out in actual play, as in “here’s my play, how do you counter THAT”.

and this

@Imperious:

you play germany and follow the script. Ill post the counters or others can do it instead. Remember you have to follow the plan to its logical conclusion. Buy the 3 AP and 1 CV on turn one, and goto sz 6 and attack on G2

Also your medd fleet has to take gibralter and post at west medd. on G2 it has to come out together at #7

This exercise would prove nothing.  The game isn’t played that way in reality.  The German player does not say to the Allied player “This is exactly my plan, and I’m going through with it no matter what, try and stop me!” in actual play.

In actual play, the German player makes his G1 move, and then does his G2 move based on the Allied counter moves.  If the Allied counter moves makes the fleet unification a bad move, the German player does something else on G2.  Does that mean setting up on G1 for a unification that never happens on G2 was bad a G1 move?  Not necessarily, it all depends on what the Allies gave up doing in order to stop the G2 unification.

[newpaintbrush]

@JamesG:

I’m not going to comment on if I think a German navy is a good or bad idea, because frankly I’m not sure.  But I will comment on this

@froodster:

instead of all this talking, let’s see this played out in practice… I’d like to see this discussions carried out in actual play, as in “here’s my play, how do you counter THAT”.

and this

@Imperious:

you play germany and follow the script. Ill post the counters or others can do it instead. Remember you have to follow the plan to its logical conclusion. Buy the 3 AP and 1 CV on turn one, and goto sz 6 and attack on G2

Also your medd fleet has to take gibralter and post at west medd. on G2 it has to come out together at #7

This exercise would prove nothing.  The game isn’t played that way in reality.  The German player does not say to the Allied player “This is exactly my plan, and I’m going through with it no matter what, try and stop me!” in actual play.

In actual play, the German player makes his G1 move, and then does his G2 move based on the Allied counter moves.  If the Allied counter moves makes the fleet unification a bad move, the German player does something else on G2.  Does that mean setting up on G1 for a unification that never happens on G2 was bad a G1 move?  Not necessarily, it all depends on what the Allies gave up doing in order to stop the G2 unification.

I approve this message.

[Guest]

–

[frood]

I think I agree with James G there - the fleet unification play of building TRNs in the Baltic is probably more useful for what it forces the allies to do than for actual fleet unification. Hence, it prolly shouldn’t called a play but a threat.

An in response to NPB: Of course No Luck does not demonstrate actual percentages. However, from experience with my Sim, 9 times out of ten the No Luck result is the result that is most likely to occur out of 10,000 runs.

Now, if you want to test out a strategy, you have to follow it through multiple turns. To do that you have to choose one particular outcome for each turn so you can move on to the next. I’d say that the most common result is the one that should be followed (or perhaps one that is slightly worse, to account for a bit of bad luck).

I know that A&A is a wild and woolly game (esp. after my just concluded game with Switch) and you’ll rarely get the exact result that “No Luck” suggests. However, on average, your results will be within a certain range of those results.

How else would you test out a strategy somewhat objectively? By ranting about it in a forum? That’s not how the game is played either.

No. If you follow a strategy through and it works out based on average results, then I think it’s fair to say that it is a sound strategy.

Nowhere did I say that the No Luck result was a 100% certainty. But it’s the best outcome to follow in terms of analyzing the mid-point between good and bad luck and how a given strategy will play out.

After all, this is how casinos and insurance companies make money - they evaluate the probabilities of certain events. The fact that some smokers live to 90 and some vegans cash out at 30 does not mean they are wrong to set higher premiums for smokers.

Suppose you were gambling on the outcome of four coin tosses, and you had to stake $100 on one specific outcome. While two heads and two tails is nowhere near 100%, it would still be the best bet.

Here’s the breakdown:
all heads: 1/16
1 tail, 3 heads: 4/16
2 h, 2 t: 6/16
1 h, 3 t: 4/16
4 t: 1/16

Where would you stake your $100?

[newpaintbrush]

The single most likely result is not the MOST LIKELY result.

When you say that something that happens a good 6% of the time should be used as a general predictor of strategy, you end up looking bad.  Or you end up with a bad strategy.

If casinos and insurance companies used your brand of logic, smokers would have LOWERED insurance rates, because any particular smoker is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY to develop lung cancer, so therefore NO smokers develop lung cancer.  And casinos would be able to give 10,000 to 1 odds for the “0” on the roulette wheel, because since the “0” comes up so FEW times, it must THEREFORE really come up NO times.

[newpaintbrush]

It’s Springer time!

[squirecam]

@Imperious:

I dont play online. Can you just play it out yourself…

Remember we allready went this route and got not takers. I guess that was an idea that needs no testing… like most scientific theroy it does not need to be proven ( note hidden sarcasm)

Edit: Another flame

jamesG is absolutely correct. You cannot “test” this by having 100% premonitions. You dont KNOW what your opponent will do, and so you must move guessing. If your opponent sees an opening based upon your moves, he will CHANGE his strategy.

Also, the “expected” result, if 37% is the top result, means that 63% of the time the expected result WONT OCCUR. So you cannot take a result as being “expected” if 2 out of every three times it doesnt happen.

But feel free to play something out amongst yourselves if you feel it validates your position.

Squirecam

[frood]

Bring it on!

So now I look bad, do I? Oh yeah! Let’s frickin get it on like King Kong!

(only here do people trash talk each other about stats & probabilities)

Okay, NPB, I’ll try to make it simple so you understand. If you run my sim 10,000x, you’ll see a graph of all the results that occurred and how often they happened. That graph usually forms a bell curve. The fattest part of that curve may only be a 6% probability, but the most likely results will all be grouped around that possibility. And granted, the length of that graph is also an indicator of the “volatility” of a given battle. A battle with a wider range of results is harder to predict, and it is less likely that the median result will occur in a battle with a wide spread of results.

HOWEVER, how do you propose to test a strategy? By simply playing it out and letting the dice fall where they may?

If you want to analyze a strategy for future use in future games, what is more reliable? The way it ACTUALLY worked the last time you tried it, or the mathematically demonstrated result with the highest rate of incidence?

Granted, my sim can only really show a range of expected results, not THE expected result. However, for planning, is there anything better to use than the result that occurs in the mid-point of that range, where 50% of results are better and 50% are worse? That represents what will happen with medium luck, and that’s how you have to evaluate a strategy.

If you want to predict what will likely happen, would you rather rely on one sample, or 10,000 samples?

Maybe we’re talking about different things… is NPB saying that there is no meaningful way to analyze a strategy in the abstract based on median results?