1942.2 Strategic Bombing Raid- SBR, Bombers and escorts, Interceptors vs G40

[Zombie69]

South Africa is the same distance from Egypt as it was in Revised. Alaska is actually in a better position: it can reach both Japanese sea zones in one turn, while in Revised it could only reach one. Brazil can still reach all the African territories that it could before, the only difference being too far away from France (but why go through Brazil to go to France anyway?). East Indies is the same distance as before and can actually reach more territories, because of the division of the East Asian coast.

I agree with making industrial complexes cost 12, but this has nothing to do with SBR and doesn’t protect against it since the new complex could be bombed just as well as the original ones.

[innohub]

I do feel the same way as Black_Elk mentioned - the 42 2E map is great in terms of it’s larger size, but the diluted territory values seems to impact the potential places where a factory can be put.  To me that seems to be a step back compared to 42 1E as it results in less strategy options.

[Black_Elk]

The South Africa mention was mostly in reference to the change since Classic (where it was still popular as a factory location), since in my experience nobody purchased here in Revised after the sudanese speed bump. The direct distance from S. Africa might be the same as Revised, but the distance from Morocco is not, so the ability the push in support with the factory towards the canal is disrupted. The value of Alaska being able to reach sz 62 and Manchuria is undercut by the fact that sz 64 no longer borders W. Canada, so its harder to push units out of Western. Also Japan can threaten Alaska with ground units stationed in Manchuria/sz62. Sz 60 no longer borders anything but Japan, so as Allies this makes a push out of Alaska to camp on that zone much harder (since you have to leave transports loaded). Brazil is out of position because it now takes 2 moves to push units from Brazil to sz 13, they have to launch transports, whereas before it was a shuck, it also cannot reach sz 14 or sz 8. Dutch East Indies is 3 moves from W. US. It can’t be hit from Solomons directly. Perhaps you are thinking about it from Japan’s perspective? I was looking at it from the Allies perspective.

I just wanted to clarify, lest people think we are referring to different game boards, but all of this does in fact relate to SBR. :)

In Revised when income was taken directly on the bombing raid, placing a factory was a risk, since it put more targets/ipcs into play for the opponent to bomb (aa was not included, so really it cost a full 20 ipcs to build a protected factory, 15 for the IC and 5 for the AAgun). In 1942.2 factories under a value of 2 ipcs are less attractive for bombing, because you have to risk a bomber on SBR against the built in gun. An additional factory gun shot, with only a chance to disrupt 4 ipcs of production for the enemy, and it becomes much less attractive as a target for bombing. So say you are getting bombed back into the stone age, by the enemy… It might make sense, rather than constantly repairing the same facility, to invest in expanding production to new locations to spread the damage. Do you see the logic now? The idea is that, at 15 they are still too expensive to be used this way (only Japan seems to buy them anyway), but perhaps at 12, it would be a more viable option.

I see a lot in the transition from Classic to Revised to 42.2 that favors bombers over factories. I think the one has been made a lot more powerful, while the other gets the complete shaft now. The only thing I can think of to bring it back into balance would be to reduce the cost of the factory unit, since it is clearly less effective now.

[baron Münchhausen]

@Baron:

Another way to see how any odds higher than 1/6 have a cold shower effect:
1 SBR (doing 3.5 IPCs on average) get 1/6 to destroy 1 StB (12 IPCs)
So you can statistically get 5 SBR before being destroyed: 3.5 x 5 raid= 17.5 IPCs.

If the odds are just doubled to 2/6 (33%).
You can only get 2 SBR before being destroyed: 3.5 IPCs x 2 = 7 IPCs.

Making an intuitive calculation, all players doesn’t see a great benefit to risk a 12 IPCs StB for a few shots which can be more disastrous on their side.

But maybe I’m not correct since I forgot to consider the preemptive A1 of StB against interceptors.
2 times 1/6 = around 2/6 x 10 IPCs = 3.3 IPCs + 7 IPCs = 10 IPCs

Still seems 2 IPCs more in favor of the defender.

Does my calculations are good?

Or I should consider a third passage before being shot down by AA fire.
3 times 1/6 = around 3/6 x 10 IPCs = 5 IPCs + 7 IPCs = 12 IPCs
Making it a fair trade?!?

Here is some statistics which show (what we already know intuitively) that SBR on a 1:1 basis StB vs Fg 1942.2 is weaker and far less interesting than G40 and to what extent:

1942.2: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
5/6 StB survived * 3.5 IPCs = 2.9 IPCs
1/6 StB killed *12 IPCs = -2 IPCs
Sum: 2.9 - 2 = +.9 IPC damage/StB

OOB 1942.2: 1 StB A1 first strike vs 1 Fg D2

StB roll /Fg roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

161= 6/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed: 3%
165= 30/216 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed: 14%

526= 60/216 StB killed by Fg: 28%
541= 20/216 StB killed by AAA: 9%
545= 100/216 both survived: 46%

Results:
60% * ((1+6 IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = 2.1 IPCs
17% killing Fg *+10 IPC = + 1.7 IPC
40% StB killed *-12 IPCs = - 4.8 IPCs
Sum: 3.8 - 4.8 = - 1 IPC. damage/StB

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G1940: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
5/6 StB survived * 5.5 IPCs = 4.583 IPCs
1/6 StB killed *12 IPCs = -2 IPCs

Sum: 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/StB

G1940: 1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1

StB roll / Fg roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

116= 6/216 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg killed: 2.8%
151= 5/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed: 2.3%
155= 25/216 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed: 11.6%

516= 30/216 StB killed by Fg: 13.9%
551= 25/216 StB killed by AAA: 11.6%
555= 125/216 both survived: 57.8%

Results:
Bombard IC: 150/216 = 69.444% * ((1+2)+(6+2)/2) IPCs= + 5.5 IPCs) = 3.819 IPCs
killing Fg : 36/216= 16.667% *+10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPC
StB killed: 66/216= 30.556% *-12 IPCs = - 3.667 IPCs

Sum: + 5.486 - 3.667 = + 1.819 IPC damage/SBR run

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So, compared to 1942.2 in a net results, each SBR round in G40 rules is +1.683 IPC / StB without interceptor;
and, on 1:1 StB vs Fg, each SBR round in G40 is +2.179 IPC / StB.

Do you see how it is far more interesting to try such SBR with G40 rules?

Since triple AAA use G40 SBR rules in 1942.2, at least, it could be more interesting to increase the bombing damage per each StB at the same level as G40: 1D6+2 IPCs while keeping the historical theme of attacking Fg and StB @1 first strike vs interceptor D@2.

In fact, this damage modified SBR for 1942.2 will not be in par with G40 SBR (+1.179 IPCs/StB) when there is an interceptor but still will be stronger than OOB 1942.2 SBR.
Results:
60% * ((1+2) (6+2)) IPCs/2= +5.5 IPCs) = 3.3 IPCs
17% killing Fg *+10 IPC = + 1.7 IPC
40% StB killed *-12 IPCs = - 4.8 IPCs
Sum: 5 - 4.8 = + .2 IPC.
instead of - 1 IPC. vs 1942.2 OOB

That way, using cold maths, I hope everyone can see it won’t create an unbalancing effect, since it is still less effective than G40 SBR, very near -1 IPC damage/StB (1942: .2 vs G40: 1.2).

I will be glad, if any one is able to compare 1 StB+ 1 Fg vs 2 Fgs in both 1942 and G40, because I must avow that it is far more complex and it is beyond my meagre maths knowledge.

[baron Münchhausen]

Here is another detailed statistics which show (what we already know intuitively) that SBR on a 1:1 basis StB+Fg escort vs 2 Fgs 1942.2 is weaker and far less interesting than G40 and to what extent:

1942.2 OOB SBR: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor damage: 1D6
5/6 StB survived * 3.5 IPCs = 2.9 IPCs
1/6 StB killed *12 IPCs = -2 IPCs
Sum: 2.9 - 2 = +.9 IPC damage/StB

1942.2 OOB SBR: 1 StB A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2 / damage 1D6

StB roll /Fg roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

112/366= 72/1296 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg killed
124/361= 24/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed
124/365= 120/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed

520/366= 600/1296 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
516/361= 80/1296 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
516/365= 400/1296 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC 520/1296= 40.123% * ((1+6 IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = + 1.404 IPCs
killing 1 Fg 216/1296= 16.667% +10 IPC = + 1.667 IPC
StB killed 776/1296 = 59.877%-12 IPCs = - 7.185 IPCs
Sum: + 3.071 - 7.185 = - 4.114 IPC. damage/SBR

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1942.2: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/3636/361/6 = 36/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : .5%
1/3636/365/6 = 180/7776 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 2.3%

10/3612/361/6 = 120/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.5%
10/3612/365/6 = 600/7776 1 Fg vs 1 Fg : 7.7%
10/3624/361/6= 240/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 3.1%
10/3624/365/6 = 1200/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 15.4%

25/364/366/6 = 600/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty : 7.7%
25/3616/361/6 = 400/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 5.2%
25/3616/365/6 = 2000/7776 1 Fg vs no casualty : 25.7%
25/3616/361/6 = 400/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 5.2%
25/3616/365/6 = 2000/7776 no casualty at all : 25.7%

Results:
Bombard on IC: 76.8% * ((1+6) IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = 2.688 IPCs
Killing 2 Fgs: 2.8%+20 IPCs = + 0.56 IPC
Killing 1 Fg: 27.7% +10 IPCs = + 2.77 IPCs
Fg killed: 33.4%-10 IPCs = - 3.34 IPCs
StB killed: 8.8%-12 IPCs = - 1.056 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 14.4%*-22 IPCs = - 3.168 IPCs

Sum: 6.018 - 7.555 = - 1.537 IPCs damage/StB

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1942.2 OOB SBR rules: 2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/3636/361/36 = 36/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.077%
1/3636/3610/36 = 360/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.772%
1/3636/3625/36 = 900/46656 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 1.929%

10/3612/366/36 = 720/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.543%
10/3612/3630/36 = 3600/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg : 7.716%
10/3624/361/36= 240/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 0.514%
10/3624/3610/36= 2400/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 5.144%
10/3624/3625/36 = 6000/46656 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 12.86%

25/364/3636/36 = 3600/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 7.716%
25/3616/366/36 = 2400/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 5.144%
25/3616/3630/36 = 12000/46656 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 25.72%
25/3616/361/36 = 400/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty : 0.857%
25/3616/3610/36 = 4000/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 8.573%
25/3616/3625/36 = 10000/46656 no casualty at all : 21.433%

Results:
2x Bombard on IC: 16900/46656= 36.222% * ((2+12) IPCs)/2= +7 IPCs) = + 2.536 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC: 22360/46656= 47.925% * ((1+6) IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = +1.677 IPCs
Killing 2 Fgs: 2.778%+20 IPCs = + 0.556 IPC
Killing 1 Fg: 27.778% +10 IPCs = + 2.778 IPCs
2 StBs killed: 7396/46656= 15.852%-24 IPCs = - 3.805 IPCs
1 StB killed: 22360/46656= 47.925%-12 IPCs = - 5.751 IPCs

Sum: +7.547 - 9.556 = - 2.009 IPCs damage/StB

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OOB 1942.2: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2

StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

11/366/61/6= 66/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/366/65/6 = 330/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg

25/362/61/6 = 50/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/362/65/6 = 250/1296 1 Fg vs no casualty
25/364/61/6 = 100/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/364/65/6 = 500/1296 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC: 1080/1296 = 83.333% * ((1+6) IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = + 2.917 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 396/1296 = 30.556% +10 IPCs = + 3.056 IPCs
Fg killed: 300/1296 = 23.148%-10 IPCs = - 2.31 IPCs
StB killed: 216/1296 = 16.667%-12 IPCs = - 2 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 50/1296 = 3.858%-22 IPCs = - 0.849 IPCs

Sum: + 5.973 - 5.159 = + 0.814 IPCs damage/SBR run

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1942.2 OOB SBR rules: 2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2

StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

11/366/61/36 = 66/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 0.849%
11/366/610/36 = 660/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 8.488%
11/366/625/36 = 1650/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 21.219%

25/362/66/36 = 300/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 3.858%
25/362/630/36 = 1500/7776 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 19.29%
25/364/61/36 = 100/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty : 1.286%
25/364/610/36 = 1000/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 12.86%
25/364/625/36 = 2500/7776 no casualty at all : 32.15%

Results:
2x Bombard on IC: 4150/7776= 53.369% * ((2+12) IPCs)/2= +7 IPCs) = + 3.736 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC: 3160/7776= 40.638% * ((1+6) IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = +1.422 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 2376/7776 = 30.556% +10 IPCs = + 3.056 IPCs
2 StBs killed: 466/7776= 5.993%-24 IPCs = - 1.438 IPCs
1 StB killed: 3160/7776= 40.638%*-12 IPCs = - 4.877 IPCs

Sum: + 8.214 - 6.315 = + 1.899 IPCs damage/SBR run

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OOB G1940: 1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1

StB roll / interceptors Fgs roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

1/611/366/6= 66/1296 1 StB killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg : 5.09%
1/625/361/6 = 25/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.93%
1/625/365/6 = 125/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 9.65%

5/611/366/6 = 330/1296 1 StB killed by Fgs vs no casualty : 25.46%
5/625/361/6 = 125/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 9.65%
5/625/365/6 = 625/1296 no casualty at all : 48.22%

Results:
Bombard on IC: 57.87% * ((1+2) +(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = 3.183 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 16.67% +10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPCs
StB killed: 42.13%-12 IPCs = - 5.056 IPCs

Sum: + 4.85 - 5.056 = - 0.206 IPCs damage/StB run

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G1940: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 damage: 1D6+2

StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/361/366/6 = 6/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs 2 Fgs : .1%
1/3610/361/6 = 10/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : .1%
1/3610/365/6 = 50/7776 1 Fg vs 2 Fgs : .6%
1/3625/361/6 = 25/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : .3%
1/3625/365/6 =125/7776 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 1.6%

10/361/366/6 = 60/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg : .8%
10/3610/361/6= 100/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.3%
10/3610/365/6 = 500/7776 1 Fg vs 1 Fg : 6.4%
10/3625/361/6 = 250/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 3.2%
10/3625/365/6 = 1250/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 16.1%

25/361/366/6 = 150/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty : 1.9%
25/3610/361/6 = 250/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 3.2%
25/3610/365/6 = 1250/7776 1 Fg vs no casualty : 16.1%
25/3625/361/6 = 625/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 8.1%
25/3625/365/6 = 3125/7776 no casualty at all : 40.2%

Results:
Bombard on IC: 81% * ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = 4.455 IPCs
Killing 2 Fgs: 2.7%+20 IPCs = + 0.54 IPC
Killing 1 Fg: 27.8% +10 IPCs = + 2.78 IPCs
Fg killed: 23.1%-10 IPCs = - 2.31 IPCs
StB killed: 11.6%-12 IPCs = - 1.392 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 7.4%*-22 IPCs = - 1.628 IPCs

Sum: 7.775 - 5.33 = + 2.445 IPCs damage/StB

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So, compared to 1942.2, each SBR round on 1:1 StB & Fg vs 2 Fgs interceptors, each SBR round in G40 is + 3.982 IPC / StB better.

G40: 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 damage: 1D6+2/StB

StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/361/3636/36 = 36/46656 2 StB killed by Fgs vs 2 Fgs killed : 0.077%
1/3610/366/36 = 60/46656 1 StB killed by Fgs and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.129%
1/3610/3630/36 = 300/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs 2 Fgs : 0.643%
1/3625/361/36 = 25/46656 2 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : .0.054%
1/3625/3610/36 = 250/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.536%
1/3625/3625/36 = 625/46656 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 1.34%

10/361/3636/36 = 360/46656 2 StBs killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg killed: 0.772%
10/3610/366/36= 600/46656 1 StB killed by Fgs and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.286%
10/3610/3630/36 = 3000/46656 1 StB killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg : 6.43%
10/3625/361/36 = 250/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 0.536%
10/3625/3610/36 = 2500/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg :5.358%
10/3625/3625/36 = 6250/46656 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 13.396%

25/361/3636/36 = 900/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 1.929%
25/3610/366/36 = 1500/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 3.215%
25/3610/3630/36 = 7500/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty : 16.075%
25/3625/361/36 = 625/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty : 1.34%
25/3625/3610/36 = 6250/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 13.396%
25/3625/3625/36 = 15625/46656 no casualty at all : 33.49%

Results:
2x Bombard on IC: 48.226% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 5.305 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC: 42.438% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 2.334 IPCs
Killing 2 Fgs: 2.778%+20 IPCs = + 0.556 IPC
Killing 1 Fg: 27.78% +10 IPCs = + 2.778 IPCs
1 StB killed: 42.438%-12 IPCs = - 2.241 IPCs
2 StBs killed: 9.338%-24 IPCs = - 5.093 IPCs

Sum: +10.973 - 7.334 = + 3.639 IPCs damage/StB

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G40 SBR: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D1

StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

11/361/61/6 = 11/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.3%
11/361/65/6 = 55/1296 1 Fg vs 1 Fg : 6.4%
11/365/61/6 = 55/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 3.2%
11/365/65/6 = 275/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 16.1%

25/361/61/6 = 25/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 1.9%
25/361/65/6 = 125/1296 1 Fg vs no casualty : 16.1%
25/365/61/6 = 125/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 8.1%
25/365/65/6 = 625/1296 no casualty at all : 40.2%

Results:
Bombard on IC: 1080/1296 = 83.333% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = 4.583 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 396/1296 = 30.556%* +10 IPCs = + 3.056 IPCs
Fg killed: 180/1296 = 13.889%* -10 IPCs = - 1.389 IPCs
StB killed: 180/1296 = 13.889%-12 IPCs = - 1.667 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 36/1296 = 2.778%-22 IPCs = - 0.611 IPCs

Sum: + 7.639 - 3.667 = + 3.972 IPCs damage/SBR run

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G40 SBR : 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D1

StB rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

11/361/66/36= 66/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/361/630/36 = 330/7776 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
11/365/61/36 = 55/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/365/610/36 = 550/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/365/625/36 = 1375/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg

25/361/66/36 = 150/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/361/630/36 = 750/7776 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
25/365/61/36 = 125/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/365/610/36 = 1250/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/365/625/36 = 3125/7776 no casualty at all

Results:
2x Bombard on IC:4500/7776 = 57.87% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 6.366 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC: 2880/7776 = 37.037% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 2.037 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 2376/7776 = 30.556% +10 IPCs = + 3.056 IPCs
1 StB killed: 2880/7776 = 37.037 %-12 IPCs = - 4.444 IPCs
2 StBs killed: 396/7776 = 5.093%*-24 IPCs = - 1.222 IPCs

Sum: +11.459 - 5.666 = + 5.793 IPCs damage/SBR run

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[baron Münchhausen]

So on 1:1 basis ratio, such as 1 StB & 1 Fg vs 2 Fgs interceptors, each SBR in OOB G40 compared to OOB 1942.2 SBR get a + 3.982 IPC / StB.

So based on this basic ratio of 1 StB+ 1 escorting Fg against 2 Fgs interceptors, which is better positive for G40: + 2.445 IPCs damage/StB while it is negative for 1942.2: - 1.537 IPCs damage/StB.

Are you convinced now that from the attacker POV, a 1942.2 game should probably use the G40 SBR rules to give a real incentive to make such attack? (As triple A software implemented it.)

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Here is the maths of Triple A SBR : each plane get @1 and StB get 1D6 damage.

Triple A 1942.2: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
5/6 StB survived * 3.5 IPCs = 2.917 IPCs
1/6 StB killed *12 IPCs = -2 IPCs

Sum: +2.917 - 2 = +0.917 IPCs damage/StB

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Triple A SBR 1942.2: 1 StB A1 vs 1 Fg D1 / damage 1D6

StB roll / Fg roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

116= 6/216 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg killed: 2.8%
151= 5/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed: 2.3%
155= 25/216 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed: 11.6%

516= 30/216 StB killed by Fg: 13.9%
551= 25/216 StB killed by AAA: 11.6%
555= 125/216 both survived: 57.8%

Results:
57.8% * ((1+2)+(6+2)/2) IPCs= + 3.5 IPCs) = 2.023 IPCs
16.7% killing Fg *+10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPC
30.6% StB killed *-12 IPCs = - 3.667 IPCs

Sum: 3.69 - 3.667 = + 0.023 IPC. damage/SBR run

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Triple A SBR 1942.2 : 1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 / damage 1D6

StB roll / interceptors Fgs roll / AAA roll = odds  casualties

1/611/366/6=  66/1296    1 StB killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg : 5.09%
1/625/361/6 = 25/1296  1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.93%
1/625/365/6 = 125/1296  no casualty  vs 1 Fg : 9.65%

5/611/366/6 = 330/1296    1 StB killed by Fgs vs no casualty : 25.46%
5/625/361/6 = 125/1296    1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 9.65%
5/625/365/6 = 625/1296  no casualty at all : 48.22%

Results:
Bombard on IC: 57.87% * ((1+6) IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = + 2.025 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 16.67% +10 IPCs =  + 1.667 IPCs
StB killed: 42.13%-12 IPCs =    - 5.056 IPCs

Sum: + 2.025 - 5.056 = - 3.031 IPCs damage/SBR run

---

Triple A SBR 1942.2: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1

StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/361/366/6 = 6/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs 2 Fgs : .1%
1/3610/361/6 = 10/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : .1%
1/3610/365/6 = 50/7776 1 Fg vs 2 Fgs : .6%
1/3625/361/6 = 25/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : .3%
1/3625/365/6 =125/7776 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 1.6%

10/361/366/6 = 60/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg : .8%
10/3610/361/6= 100/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.3%
10/3610/365/6 = 500/7776 1 Fg vs 1 Fg : 6.4%
10/3625/361/6 = 250/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 3.2%
10/3625/365/6 = 1250/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 16.1%

25/361/366/6 = 150/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty : 1.9%
25/3610/361/6 = 250/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 3.2%
25/3610/365/6 = 1250/7776 1 Fg vs no casualty : 16.1%
25/3625/361/6 = 625/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 8.1%
25/3625/365/6 = 3125/7776 no casualty at all : 40.2%

Results:
Bombard on IC: 81% * ((1+6) IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = 2.835 IPCs
Killing 2 Fgs: 2.7%+20 IPCs = + 0.54 IPC
Killing 1 Fg: 27.8% +10 IPCs = + 2.78 IPCs
Fg killed: 23.1%-10 IPCs = - 2.31 IPCs
StB killed: 11.6%-12 IPCs = - 1.392 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 7.4%*-22 IPCs = - 1.628 IPCs

Sum: 6.155 - 5.33 = + 0.825 IPCs damage/SBR run

---

Triple A SBR 1942.2: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D1

StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

11/361/61/6 = 11/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.3%
11/361/65/6 = 55/1296 1 Fg vs 1 Fg : 6.4%
11/365/61/6 = 55/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 3.2%
11/365/65/6 = 275/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 16.1%

25/361/61/6 = 25/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 1.9%
25/361/65/6 = 125/1296 1 Fg vs no casualty : 16.1%
25/365/61/6 = 125/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 8.1%
25/365/65/6 = 625/1296 no casualty at all : 40.2%

Results:
Bombard on IC: 1080/1296 = 83.333% * ((1+6) IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = + 2.917 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 396/1296 = 30.556%* +10 IPCs = + 3.056 IPCs
Fg killed: 180/1296 = 13.889%* -10 IPCs = - 1.389 IPCs
StB killed: 180/1296 = 13.889%-12 IPCs = - 1.667 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 36/1296 = 2.778%-22 IPCs = - 0.611 IPCs

Sum: + 5.973 - 3.667 = + 2.306 IPCs damage/SBR run

[baron Münchhausen]

The Triple A 1942.2 SBR rule is each plane get Att or Def @1 and StB get 1D6 damage.

However, the math also shows that it is not better to bring along Fg as escort than throwing only StBs.
Almost the same odds: 0.825 IPC/ SBR run (with 1 StB 1 Fg) vs 0.861 IPC/ SBR run (with 2 StBs).

The only difference is with 2 Bombers there is much risk (of loosing more IPCs) but also much reward (more damage against the defender).

From this, my analysis will be that there is no need to escort 2 bombers or more with Fighters as long as you get a 1:1 ratio against defending interceptors. Better to put your Fgs on other missions.

Below there is the maths.

---

Triple A SBR 1942.2: 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1

StB rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/361/3636/36 = 36/46656 2 StB killed by Fgs vs 2 Fgs killed : 0.077%
1/3610/366/36 = 60/46656 1 StB killed by Fgs and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.129%
1/3610/3630/36 = 300/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs 2 Fgs : 0.643%
1/3625/361/36 = 25/46656 2 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : .0.054%
1/3625/3610/36 = 250/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.536%
1/3625/3625/36 = 625/46656 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 1.34%

10/361/3636/36 = 360/46656 2 StBs killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg killed: 0.772%
10/3610/366/36= 600/46656 1 StB killed by Fgs and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.286%
10/3610/3630/36 = 3000/46656 1 StB killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg : 6.43%
10/3625/361/36 = 250/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 0.536%
10/3625/3610/36 = 2500/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg :5.358%
10/3625/3625/36 = 6250/46656 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 13.396%

25/361/3636/36 = 900/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 1.929%
25/3610/366/36 = 1500/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 3.215%
25/3610/3630/36 = 7500/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty : 16.075%
25/3625/361/36 = 625/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty : 1.34%
25/3625/3610/36 = 6250/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 13.396%
25/3625/3625/36 = 15625/46656 no casualty at all : 33.49%

Results:
2x Bombard on IC: 48.226% * ((2+12) IPCs)/2= +7 IPCs) = 3.376 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC: 42.438% * ((1+6) IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = 1.485 IPCs
Killing 2 Fgs: 2.778%+20 IPCs = + 0.556 IPC
Killing 1 Fg: 27.78% +10 IPCs = + 2.778 IPCs
1 StB killed: 42.438%-12 IPCs = - 2.241 IPCs
2 StBs killed: 9.338%-24 IPCs = - 5.093 IPCs

Sum: +8.195 - 7.334 = + 0.861 IPCs damage/StB

---

Triple A SBR 1942.2: 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D1

StB rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

11/361/66/36= 66/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/361/630/36 = 330/7776 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
11/365/61/36 = 55/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/365/610/36 = 550/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/365/625/36 = 1375/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg

25/361/66/36 = 150/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/361/630/36 = 750/7776 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
25/365/61/36 = 125/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/365/610/36 = 1250/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/365/625/36 = 3125/7776 no casualty at all

Results:
2x Bombard on IC: 4500/7776 = 57.87% * ((2+12) IPCs)/2= +7 IPCs) = + 4.051 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC: 2880/7776 = 37.037% * ((1+6) IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = + 1.296 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 2376/7776 = 30.556% +10 IPCs = + 3.056 IPCs
1 StB killed: 2880/7776 = 37.037 %-12 IPCs = - 4.444 IPCs
2 StBs killed: 396/7776 = 5.093%*-24 IPCs = - 1.222 IPCs

Sum: +8.403 - 5.666 = + 2.737 IPCs damage/StB

[theROCmonster]

I’m not sure if you guys have mentioned this point yet, but the main problem with the way Strategic bombing raids are now is that US should in almost every game of 42 build up to 7 bombers. 6 of these go to Germany while 1 goes to Italy. You guys pointed out how the math is positive for America to do this. With the new rules, over revised, the allies have to build a lot more fleet to defend it’s transports, so transports have indirectly gone up in price. Couple this with bombers now being cheaper means that SBR are always a good idea for America if going KGF. This does lead to more “historical games” with America bombing every turn, but it is a pain in the ass playing as the Axis when Germany after R4 has very little money to play with.

[baron Münchhausen]

@Baron:

The Triple A 1942.2 SBR rule is each plane get Att or Def @1 and StB get 1D6 damage.

However, the math also shows that it is not better to bring along Fg as escort than throwing only StBs.
Almost the same odds: 0.825 IPC/ SBR run (with 1 StB 1 Fg) vs 0.861 IPC/ SBR run (with 2 StBs).

The only difference is with 2 Bombers there is much risk (of loosing more IPCs) but also much reward (more damage against the defender).

From this, my analysis will be that there is no need to escort 2 bombers or more with Fighters as long as you get a 1:1 ratio against defending interceptors. Better to put your Fgs on other missions.

Below there is the maths.

---

Triple A SBR 1942.2: 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1

Sum: +8.195 - 7.334 = + 0.861 IPCs damage/StB

I can also add that it is even more the case with G40 SBR, no need to throw a Fg on an escort mission if you have at least 2 StBs and a 1:1 ratio against defending interceptors.

According to the maths of G40 OOB SBR rules, the odds to inflict damage to the defender are clearly increasing keeping 1:1 ratio, from 1 StB, 1 StB+1Fg and, finally 2 StBs.
The odds are even better than a single bomber against an undefended Industrial Complex ! ( +2.583 vs + 3.639 IPCs damage/SBR run)

G1940 SBR: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor/ damage 1D6+2
Sum: +4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40: 1 StB A1 doing SBR against 1 Fg D1 / damage 1D6+2
Sum: + 4.845 - 3.666 = + 1.179 IPC. damage/SBR run

G40: 1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 4.85 - 5.056 = - 0.206 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 damage: 1D6+2
Sum: +7.775 - 5.33 = + 2.445 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40: 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 damage: 1D6+2/StB
Sum: +10.973 - 7.334 = + 3.639 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 7.639 - 3.667 = + 3.972 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40: 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: +11.459 - 5.666 = + 5.793 IPCs damage/SBR run

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Triple A SBR 1942.2: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor (A1 vs D1, damage 1D6)
Sum: +2.917 - 2 = +0.917 IPC damage/SBR run

Triple A SBR 1942.2: 1 StB A1 vs 1 Fg D1
Sum: +3.69 - 3.667 = + 0.023 IPC damage/SBR run

Triple A SBR 1942.2 : 1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 / damage 1D6
Sum: + 2.025 - 5.056 = - 3.031 IPCs damage/SBR run

Triple A SBR 1942.2: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: +6.155 - 5.33 = + 0.825 IPC damage/SBR run

Triple A SBR 1942.2: 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: +8.195 - 7.334 = + 0.861 IPC damage/SBR run

Triple A SBR 1942.2: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: + 5.973 - 3.667 = + 2.306 IPCs damage/SBR run

Triple A SBR 1942.2: 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: +8.403 - 5.666 = + 2.737 IPCs damage/StB

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OOB SBR rules for 1942.2: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor damage: 1D6
Sum: + 2.917 - 2 = +.917 IPC damage/SBR run

OOB 1942.2: 1 StB A1 first strike vs 1 Fg D2
Sum: + 3.8 - 4.8 = - 1 IPC damage/SBR run

OOB 1942.2: 1 StB A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2 / damage 1D6
Sum: + 3.071 - 7.185 = - 4.114 IPC. damage/SBR

OOB 1942.2: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 6.018 - 7.555 = - 1.537 IPCs damage/SBR run

OOB 1942.2: 2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +7.547 - 9.556 = - 2.009 IPCs damage/SBR run

OOB 1942.2: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D2
Sum: + 5.973 - 5.159 = + 0.814 IPCs damage/SBR run

OOB 1942.2: 2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D2
Sum: + 8.214 - 6.315 = + 1.899 IPCs damage/SBR run

---

So the only case for advocating Fg escort is within OOB SBR rules from 1942.2, the odds are less worse for the attacker if it keeps pairing 1 StB with 1 Fg.

Playing 1942.2 online with Triple A SBR rules however, it is a different story. As in G40, 2 StBs has almost the same odds of doing damage as a single StB raid against an undefended IC.
(.861 vs .917 IPC/SBR run)

So, based on these comparative stats, we can say that the actual OOB 1942.2 SBR rules is more historical than the 2 others, since the game mechanics give less risks for bombers when paired to Fg but it is at the expense of making SBR strategies much less appealing for attacker, and for Allies in particular.

Here is the link to HR forum for what I think is a more historical and balance SBR rules:
http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=34118.msg1311386#msg1311386