S03 Gamerman01 (allies +12) v JWW

[gamerman01]

@JWW:

Really? going 0-9 for a one is 20% likely? and 1-9 over 54%?? I am NOT a math guy and I have NO IDEA how you come to those calculations but they seem like really big numbers.

Yes.
I have an accurate A&A calculator.
I put in 9 bombers against 9 bombers for 1 round only, and looked at the % distribution.
Yes, there is a 20% chance that 9 1’s will miss completely.

[666]

G17 rpr 8 purch 3 inf & art spend 21 (save 1)

combat
#1a ukr (arm) v inf, art (bul)
#1 nwe (3inf, aa) v 4inf, art, arm & 3 fgt (ger)
#2 pol (inf) v 2inf (bul) & 4 fgt (ger)
#3 cze (inf) v 5inf & 10 arm (bul)

this is not looking good……

[666]

ukr attackRolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 12@2: (4, 2)v armRolls: 1@3; Total Hits: 01@3: (6)

[Pin]

0.hit 19,38 %
1.hit 34,89 %
2.hit 27,91 %
3.hit 13,02 %
4.hit 3,91 %
5.hit 0,78 %
6.hit 0,10 %
7.hit 0,01 %
8.hit 0,00 %
9.hit 0,00 %
100,00 %

Just tought i should end the discussion. This is for 9 planes running against an AA. The probability is for that exact outcome. So for hitting 3 or less you have to add up 0.hit trough 3.hit etc.

[666]

ukr twol

NWE aa fireRolls: 3@1; Total Hits: 13@1: (1, 6, 3)this must be like 70% there isn’t a one?

[666]

BS, I don’t believe your math. doesn’t account for the randomness of dice. I prefer to hang in the quantum mechanics world where there is just too much chaos for lack of a better world to make such bold presumptions.

NWE attackRolls: 3@3 2@2 3@1; Total Hits: 33@3: (1, 4, 5)2@2: (1, 1)3@1: (3, 3, 4)v 3infRolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 03@2: (3, 5, 4)

[Pin]

@JWW:

ukr twol

NWE aa fireRolls: 3@1; Total Hits: 13@1: (1, 6, 3)this must be like 70% there isn’t a one?

0.hit 57,87 %
1.hit 34,72 %
2.hit 6,94 %
3.hit 0,46 %

[666]

nwe twlo fgt

pol attackRolls: 4@3 2@1; Total Hits: 04@3: (6, 6, 6, 6)2@1: (3, 3)v infRolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (1)

[666]

really

Rolls: 4@3 1@1; Total Hits: 04@3: (6, 6, 4, 4)1@1: (6)v infRolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (2)

[gamerman01]

@JWW:

this must be like 70% there isn’t a one?

57.9%

[gamerman01]

Evil omens -
Looks like your sign to quit, JW

[666]

@Pin:

@JWW:

ukr twol

NWE aa fireRolls: 3@1; Total Hits: 13@1: (1, 6, 3)this must be like 70% there isn’t a one?

0.hit 57,87 %
1.hit 34,72 %
2.hit 6,94 %
3.hit 0,46 %

so basically, according to your chart you got lucky seeing as I had a 55% chance of not getting hit?

[Pin]

last post ill make about statistics, sorry but i love statistics :p

1st round 0,72 %
2nd round 0,87 %
total 0,01 %

This is the Poland battle odds for what happened, thats one sick sick outlier. You probably wont see such a skewed fight in most games you roll on this site :p

[666]

@Gamerman01:

Evil omens -
Looks like your sign to quit, JW

yeah those odds are like stupid huh?

3rd waveRolls: 3@3 1@1; Total Hits: 43@3: (1, 3, 2)1@1: (1)v infRolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (3)

[666]

pol twlo fgt, inf

cze attackRolls: 10@3 5@1; Total Hits: 410@3: (4, 4, 1, 1, 6, 6, 6, 1, 6, 3)5@1: (5, 5, 3, 3, 2)v infRolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (6)

[gamerman01]

@JWW:

so basically, according to your chart you got lucky seeing as I had a 55% chance of not getting hit?

JWW, again you seem clueless.  Pin has jumped in and made all these statistics posts.  Not me.

[gamerman01]

Calculating the odds of a certain number of AA missing is easy.  Take 5/6 to the Nth power.
5/6 to the 3rd (NWE) = 57.9%
5/6 to the 9th (USA’s) = 19.4%

Excel can do that.

And Pin, believe me, man, I have seen MANY dice results just as strange as Poland, there.  Many.  How about 5 of 6 aircraft shot down by AA on one turn?  How about 13 tanks all missing, and the 3 defending tanks all hitting?  I could go on.

[666]

cze twol

ncm:
all fgt’s fra
bul arm > ger
bul aa > cze
ger 8inf & 4 arm > fra

G collects 32

S3_JWW(x)_v_Gamerman01(12)_17a.AAM

[gamerman01]

Pin, if you are going to jump into a hot game and start posting, you need to clearly identify yourself.
JWW understandably thought you were me. 
That could cause some serious misunderstandings if you’re not careful.  Thanks.

[gamerman01]

Think I’ll grab some McDonald’s first before making Russian move…
Shouldn’t move on an empty stomach.