S03 Gamerman01 (allies +12) v JWW

[gamerman01]

Big damage at last
Lost INF, FTR
Fra2Rolls: 5@3; Total Hits: 15@3: (4, 3, 5, 6, 5)Rolls: 1@2 1@3; Total Hits: 11@2: (5)1@3: (2)

[gamerman01]

Sherman lost
4 FTR disengage
Ita ARM remains
Z52Rolls: 1@2 1@3; Total Hits: 11@2: (5)1@3: (3)Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (5)

[gamerman01]

Z46Rolls: 2@3; Total Hits: 12@3: (2, 4)Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (2)

[666]

seems to me like I did get you on “tilt”. AA fire was really poor.

[gamerman01]

Z9 - 5 TP, DD, CV (Z7) FTR (Fra)
ECa - 2 BMB (Ger) 2 INF (WCa) 2 INF (EUS) 2 ARM (WUS) FTR (Z7)
WCa - INF (WUS)
Nin - 4 INF (Hup)
Cau - BMB (Ind) BMB (Hup)
EPl - 2 INF, ARM (Pol)
EUk - ARM (Pol)
Z7 - 3 FTR (Fra)
Z56 - FTR (Z52) FTR (Z46)

Place 7 SS, FTR (Z56)
Place INF (Chi)
Collect 48, 48 on hand

S3_JWW(x)_v_Gamerman01(12)_16f.AAM

[gamerman01]

@JWW:

seems to me like I did get you on “tilt”. AA fire was really poor.

One more hit and you would be above average.  You had to be either above or below - you couldn’t be right at average.

[666]

@Gamerman01:

@JWW:

seems to me like I did get you on “tilt”. AA fire was really poor.

One more hit and you would be above average.  You had to be either above or below - you couldn’t be right at average.

I am a glass half full guy. I’m above avg. At least that is what my beautiful wife says.  :wink:

[gamerman01]

Really poor?  You’re revealing either your bias or your ignorance.
Chance of missing everything (that sure would have been nice) = 19.38%
Chance of hitting zero or one = 54.27%
Chance of hitting 2 or less = 82.17%

So it was a typical roll.  Certainly not “really poor”.

[gamerman01]

@JWW:

I am a glass half full guy. I’m above avg. At least that is what my beautiful wife says.  :wink:

:-)
Except it seems you are a glass half empty guy to me.  You complain about average results!  If you were glass half full, you would be glad you hit one!!

[gamerman01]

If you want to talk dice, it was unfortunate for me to lose a fighter in the Pacific, and to fail to take France, as I got sub-par rolls after the completely average (1/6) AA.  Balanced out by tremendous damage rolls, so all in all, I would consider that an average US turn.  I think the numbers back me up.

[gamerman01]

Do you have time for the German move?  If you do it, I can move Russia within an hour or two this evening.

[gamerman01]

Hm - 16 rounds completed in 2 1/2 months.  That’s almost a move per day on average - pretty good

[666]

@Gamerman01:

You’re revealing either your bias or your ignorance.

or BOTH!

Really? going 0-9 for a one is 20% likely? and 1-9 over 54%?? I am NOT a math guy and I have NO IDEA how you come to those calculations but they seem like really big numbers.

So I guess all those lone super subs that keep getting one’s on D is like a math miracle? Not that we believe in miracles……

[gamerman01]

@JWW:

Really? going 0-9 for a one is 20% likely? and 1-9 over 54%?? I am NOT a math guy and I have NO IDEA how you come to those calculations but they seem like really big numbers.

Yes.
I have an accurate A&A calculator.
I put in 9 bombers against 9 bombers for 1 round only, and looked at the % distribution.
Yes, there is a 20% chance that 9 1’s will miss completely.

[666]

G17 rpr 8 purch 3 inf & art spend 21 (save 1)

combat
#1a ukr (arm) v inf, art (bul)
#1 nwe (3inf, aa) v 4inf, art, arm & 3 fgt (ger)
#2 pol (inf) v 2inf (bul) & 4 fgt (ger)
#3 cze (inf) v 5inf & 10 arm (bul)

this is not looking good……

[666]

ukr attackRolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 12@2: (4, 2)v armRolls: 1@3; Total Hits: 01@3: (6)

[Pin]

0.hit 19,38 %
1.hit 34,89 %
2.hit 27,91 %
3.hit 13,02 %
4.hit 3,91 %
5.hit 0,78 %
6.hit 0,10 %
7.hit 0,01 %
8.hit 0,00 %
9.hit 0,00 %
100,00 %

Just tought i should end the discussion. This is for 9 planes running against an AA. The probability is for that exact outcome. So for hitting 3 or less you have to add up 0.hit trough 3.hit etc.

[666]

ukr twol

NWE aa fireRolls: 3@1; Total Hits: 13@1: (1, 6, 3)this must be like 70% there isn’t a one?

[666]

BS, I don’t believe your math. doesn’t account for the randomness of dice. I prefer to hang in the quantum mechanics world where there is just too much chaos for lack of a better world to make such bold presumptions.

NWE attackRolls: 3@3 2@2 3@1; Total Hits: 33@3: (1, 4, 5)2@2: (1, 1)3@1: (3, 3, 4)v 3infRolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 03@2: (3, 5, 4)

[Pin]

@JWW:

ukr twol

NWE aa fireRolls: 3@1; Total Hits: 13@1: (1, 6, 3)this must be like 70% there isn’t a one?

0.hit 57,87 %
1.hit 34,72 %
2.hit 6,94 %
3.hit 0,46 %