Global odds calculator?

[calvinhobbesliker]

@gamerman01:

See my above points.  I think it sucks if it doesn’t show you the chances of losing nothing, losing 1 infantry, losing 2 infantry, etc etc.  Most times I’m not just interested in taking the territory or wiping him out, I wanna know how much I’ll be left with!  Very important!

Well, it tells on average how many ipcs of units you’ll lose, so you can guess the units left over

[gamerman01]

@calvinhobbesliker:

@gamerman01:

See my above points.  I think it sucks if it doesn’t show you the chances of losing nothing, losing 1 infantry, losing 2 infantry, etc etc.  Most times I’m not just interested in taking the territory or wiping him out, I wanna know how much I’ll be left with!  Very important!

Well, it tells on average how many ipcs of units you’ll lose, so you can guess the units left over

On average.  I don’t want on average.  I want to see the results between the 5th and 95th percentile, or between the 40th and 60th percentile, etc.  I would never ever use a calculator like this (I think the one on frood is similar).

[allweneedislove]

@gamerman01:

See my above points.  I think it sucks if it doesn’t show you the chances of losing nothing, losing 1 infantry, losing 2 infantry, etc etc.  Most times I’m not just interested in taking the territory or wiping him out, I wanna know how much I’ll be left with!  Very important!

you wont know how many units you are left with if you are not playing lowluck. you are only going to get averages so the calculator with some math skills and intuition should be enough.

i use triplea’s built in battle calculator. i find it very helpful. you input the number of times it simulates the battle and gives the attackers win %, draw %, defender win % average units left for attacker and average units left for defender.

[TexCapPrezJimmy]

Fine, then don’t use it. It’s running a Monte Carlo simulation, which is the only reasonable way of doing it.

From the repository for all human knowledge:

Monte Carlo methods (or Monte Carlo experiments) are a class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to compute their results. Monte Carlo methods are often used in simulating physical and mathematical systems. Because of their reliance on repeated computation of random or pseudo-random numbers, these methods are most suited to calculation by a computer and tend to be used when it is unfeasible or impossible to compute an exact result with a deterministic algorithm.

If a 5% uncertainty is not good enough for you then just run more iterations as Calvin said, or, get crackin’ on that super computer.

A percentage chance of winning/losing/drawing, coupled with the average IPC loss, should be sufficient information for any reasonable player to make a decision. It’s certainly better than no statistical information at all and I don’t want to play with anybody that needs more information.

[gamerman01]

Whatever.  You guys obviously don’t understand what I’m trying to tell you, and I have no reason to try explaining it to you.  I’ll just profit from my vastly superior calculator.  :-D

Average IPC loss and chance of winning or losing is not NEARLY enough information for me, no.

[special forces]

But you do know that no calculator can save you from bad dice, right?

[leddux]

@freezing:

@gamerman01:

A calculator that only shows chance of victory for each side falls far short of what is needed.

Also, when I put in a tac bomber or a fighter, it gives better odds for the tac bomber.  This should not be the case, because they both attack at 3.

For 1940, I created my own crude “calculator” with Excel, since I’ve never seen a decent calculator for this version yet.

There is definitely a need for some programming nerd to create a good calculator.

Yeah…… bitch board…
Are you assuming a normal disribution, a t-distribution, a geometric distribution, beta distribution, or something else…
please elaborate

I originally wrote my calculator because I didn’t like the other calculators I found. It’s easy to use and calculates the information I want to see. Then I decided to share it on the web.

Looks like it’s your turn to step up to the plate.

[calvinhobbesliker]

Yeah…… b**** board…
Are you assuming a normal disribution, a t-distribution, a geometric distribution, beta distribution, or something else…
please elaborate

I think his calc uses the average of units killed to calculate those values

[rockrobinoff]

anyone know for sure if the ipod/iphone version is as up to date as the web version?

[TexCapPrezJimmy]

It is not, yet.

[rockrobinoff]

eta?

also, has anyone tried the other iphone/ipod A&A dice sim available in the app store?

[rockrobinoff]

the sim was updated with 1940 rules today for the iphone/touch. this is perfect timing, as my new touch is due to arrive today as well.

[docfav7]

It is also updated for the Droid.  I purchased it a few days ago and it has since updated with 1940 rules.  I’ll be testing it out tomorrow at EllisCON here in CT.

Brian

[calvinhobbesliker]

@freezing:

@calvinhobbesliker:

Yeah…… b**** board…
Are you assuming a normal disribution, a t-distribution, a geometric distribution, beta distribution, or something else…
please elaborate

The sim runs by simulating a setup between your units and your opponents units. 1 round of combat is run with random dice rolls, and then units with lethal damage are taken out. Another round of combat is run and units with lethal damage are taken out, etc. until there can be no combat. The results are recorded, and then the whole thing starts all over again. After 1000 runs, all result averages are displayed.

The percentages I’ve found usually vary by ± 2%.

I did update both handheld versions of the sim. Usually with Apple there can be a lag time by up to 2 weeks from when I submit an update to them and when it finally gets published.

In what order are the units taken off? Are they taken off in order of increasing ipc(defending bombers after infantry) value, or increasing attack/defense(so defending bombers before infantry). Is it possible to add the option “must take territory,” which means that instead of taking the last land unit off, air units are taken off instead?

[maverick_76]

@gamerman01:

Good point, but that just supports another reason I don’t like this calculator.  It gives you results varying by up to 5%.  I like a calc that tells you what the averages are, period.  Like, infinite runs.

Like if you have a battleship on battleship, you have exactly a 50% chance of winning.  Not 48-52%.  :roll:

The misunderstanding here is the program is actually “rolling” dice and taking those percentages based on artificial dice rolls. If you wanted an odds or ratio calculator then find one that does not run simulations at all, rather just using the ratio instead. That what I think you are looking for.

[rockrobinoff]

The global rules on the App version are very screwed up. A mix of revised units and global units are being used. I emailed the developer a while back but have heard nothing. I paid for this app, and I would like it delivered as advertised.

[freezing]

@calvinhobbesliker:

@freezing:

@calvinhobbesliker:

Yeah…… b**** board…
Are you assuming a normal disribution, a t-distribution, a geometric distribution, beta distribution, or something else…
please elaborate

The sim runs by simulating a setup between your units and your opponents units. 1 round of combat is run with random dice rolls, and then units with lethal damage are taken out. Another round of combat is run and units with lethal damage are taken out, etc. until there can be no combat. The results are recorded, and then the whole thing starts all over again. After 1000 runs, all result averages are displayed.

The percentages I’ve found usually vary by ± 2%.

I did update both handheld versions of the sim. Usually with Apple there can be a lag time by up to 2 weeks from when I submit an update to them and when it finally gets published.

In what order are the units taken off? Are they taken off in order of increasing ipc(defending bombers after infantry) value, or increasing attack/defense(so defending bombers before infantry). Is it possible to add the option “must take territory,” which means that instead of taking the last land unit off, air units are taken off instead?

It appears some mod deleted all of my posts in this thread.

The order is slightly different for different rules sets, but for 1940 it’s

Infantry
MechInf
Artillery
Tank
Submarine
Transport
Fighter
Destroyer
TacticalBomber
Cruiser
Bomber
AircraftCarrier
Battleship

based mostly on IPC value. It’s the same for both attackers and defenders. The iphone version is a little more flexible (since I rewrote it), and will remove bombers on defense slightly earlier.

It does not have the option of taking territory but I can put that on my todo list.

[freezing]

@rockrobinoff:

The global rules on the App version are very screwed up. A mix of revised units and global units are being used. I emailed the developer a while back but have heard nothing. I paid for this app, and I would like it delivered as advertised.

I did not get that email - it looks like some of my email is being dropped.

Yes, I’m looking at it now, and the iphone 1940s version does have some of the revised values incorrectly inserted. I can post an update to that - but sometimes it takes up to 2 weeks for Apple to update.

[rockrobinoff]

ok, thanks for the update freezing.

the errors i have detected in the 1940 rules set:

bombers are revised bombers (not a big deal)
tanks are revised tanks (not a big deal)
destroyers " "
aircraft carriers " "
transports " "
submarines " "
battleships " "

mech inf should get their bonus from artillery (not a big deal)

you have to turn off AA guns for sea battles (not a big deal)

[calvinhobbesliker]

What’s the difference between G40 bombers and Revised ones?