Does Sealion break the Game(Europe Only)


  • @calvinhobbesliker:

    What do you think?

    If everyone says that Germany can both take out UK and all three of Russia’s victory cities, then I have no reason to doubt that.  What I don’t understand is how they can do all this while Italy doesn’t lose both the Egypt and South Italy victory cities, keeping them one victory city short of victory.  Combine that with all the convoy raiding that USA should be doing by this time, then the Axis now have an income disadvantage that they can’t recover from.

    I think the two key questions that need to be answered is this:  1) What turn does the third Soviet victory city usually fall when Germany does the Sealion, ASSUMING expert play on the part of the Allies?; 2)  Can the USA take out both South Italy and Egypt by the same turn?


  • @calvinhobbesliker:

    @Latro:

    I’m still waiting to see a reliable Sealion strategy presented anywhere.

    8-)

    Ask jim010

    Well jim10 …

    If you would be so kind comment on your strategy, I would be more than happy to try and shoot a lot of holes in it!

    :wink:


  • Fire up a game.

    We’ll do low luck.


  • It only makes it hard for UK to go for that Italian fleet. It forces a decision. The attack itself will succeed if his AA don’t shoot a plane and your able to block any ships from blocking the two sea zones and you also defeat all ships in range, while protect your fleet.


  • In all honesty, it seems others have come to the same ideas as I have quite independently.  Sgtblitz has just made the same moves on me as I am doing in my latest games (and I hadn’t played him before) so I can only assume that players are coming to the same conclusions.

    Hell, maybe I am missing something.

    But those round robins I played, taking UK out and removing approx. $30 a turn from the Allies.  Having the $81 to spend round 4.  The fleet in sz109 to force the US to eat through it (and I leave before that happens anyway, but it forces the US to come over in strength in navy).  The 11 TTs in sz110 that can swing back at Russia w/ the buys in West Germany.  The lull in Africa to allow Italy to knock out UK in Egypt.

    I think that’s tough to beat.

    Again.  Maybe I’m missing something.  Barring dice, (like the game I am now playing where I failed in France turn 1  :x) if someone can shove this tactic back down my own throat, then I will believe.

    But right now, I don’t want Allies w/o 4 - 5 inf in UK.


  • It only makes it hard for UK to go for that Italian fleet. It forces a decision. The attack itself will succeed if his AA don’t shoot a plane and your able to block any ships from blocking the two sea zones and you also defeat all ships in range, while protect your fleet.

    You can’t block the G3 London attack.

    If you get luck and survive with some UK ships, then you could stand in front of the Germans.  But I doubt it would prevent the Germans from pushing through - and that scenario wil not be the norm.  Likely you won’t have any ships in range except for the Gibraltar fleet.


  • @jim010:

    It only makes it hard for UK to go for that Italian fleet. It forces a decision. The attack itself will succeed if his AA don’t shoot a plane and your able to block any ships from blocking the two sea zones and you also defeat all ships in range, while protect your fleet.

    You can’t block the G3 London attack.

    If you get luck and survive with some UK ships, then you could stand in front of the Germans.  But I doubt it would prevent the Germans from pushing through - and that scenario wil not be the norm.  Likely you won’t have any ships in range except for the Gibraltar fleet.

    Which it why it stops a Taranto raid


  • Unless you’re really lucky in the AAs, Germany will still take UK on G3.


  • Which it why it stops a Taranto raid

    I wonder about that.  I think you’re still better off hitting sz93.  Any planes that survive the counterattack then fly to London.

    Only other option I see is hitting the German fleet in sz112 - and that is liekly to fail.


  • @jim010:

    Fire up a game.

    We’ll do low luck.

    A good idea … but unfortunately I’m really really really limited in available time  :cry:

    Perhaps if someone else jumps in as well to keep the pace going? Or perhaps there already is an online game posted here somewhere to see Sealion in action according to your plans? Or just giving a short summary?

    runs off to work

    8-)


  • @jim010:

    But right now, I don’t want Allies w/o 4 - 5 inf in UK.

    It sounds like you are taking UK on turn 3 on average. It also sounds like you are still winning the game as the axis with UK under control.

    Is your question about Sealion breaking the game about a long term axis win after the fall of UK?

    With Paris and London, you will still need 2 out of 3 Russian cities and Egypt.

    Since the U.S. can threaten Italian control of Rome and Egypt at the same time, Italy is likely to choose to protect Rome. Unless Germany can capture 3 Russian cities, The U.S. could take Egypt. Forcing Germany to take Russia for the win. If Egypt is held when Russia falls, the U.S. has one turn to capture London.

    Can the axis, build enough units to take Russia, and also enough units to defend London, Rome, and Paris from a staged U.S. fleet in Gibraltar? If the answer proves to be yes, then Sealion would break the game.

    Have any of the UK players you faced chosen to build Navy instead of Land Units. Its obvious that Land units will not defend UK long term, given that conclusion its logical to force the Germans to trap their IPCs in a navy that can’t be used against Russian land units. If the Germans realize this, they can choose to build more expensive air units that can be redirected at Russia later. In which case, you have to bleed them of those units as they take the UK.

    How many transports do you build in order to take UK turn 3? I found I had to stage units in Scottland first before I took it on G4. That required 11 German transports when I did it. I had to strip Europe of land units and use Italy to defend Germany from the Russian stack that took Slovakia R4. I later scrapped that test game as position was horrible for a long term win.


  • When I’m done tweaking this tactic, I’ll post, but I see others are already doing it as well.

    I prefer to play out my ideas, rather than debate them, as without seeing a whole board, or accounting for what a board looks like after a couple turns, I can’t tell you what moves I would make.

    I will say that everyone talking about conquering UK or even a couple cities in Russia doesn’t win you the game in the long run.  That reminds me of those that said if Japan conquers the US in Pacific, they still lose b/c they don’t have the remaining cities and can’t face the remaining opponents.

    What exactly do people think Germany or Japan are going to do with all this newly infused cash on thier very next turn?

    I will be able to play a new game in a few days.  Those of you that want to show me how its done will get a chance.


  • to answer the question, no. Its very simple,really–Sealion does not have to be done. Unless you are playing for money,why do you need to end a game in 10 minutes that you spent a hundred bucks on and 30 minutes setting up? There is no rule saying you have to do it. Just dont and then the game isnt broken. See how easy that was?


  • It would be easier to bid.


  • @pusfilledwart:

    to answer the question, no. Its very simple,really–Sealion does not have to be done. Unless you are playing for money,why do you need to end a game in 10 minutes that you spent a hundred bucks on and 30 minutes setting up? There is no rule saying you have to do it. Just dont and then the game isnt broken. See how easy that was?

    I think that destroys the spirit of the game


  • I think that destroys the spirit of the game

    maybe for tournament or sentimental players but not for the average player. Larry said he included the potential for Sealion,so there is that element to the game, but there is no guarantee that it will work every time so saying the game is broken turns out to be wrong. I read somewhere that G2 Sealion will have 90% success rate. I think that is an exaggeration.


  • It’s not turn 2, it is turn 3, and I don’t have it at 90%, but I do have it at 80% +.

    That’s 4 out of 5 games.


  • Jim010,

    Is your G3 Sea Lion attack a done deal? Are there no buys in the game for the UK that will defeat Sea Lion? I hope this game does not have a “best” move that will always be done by Germany vs. the UK for the first 3 turns.

    Instead of infantry, is it possible to buy subs/ships/planes to destroy the German navy before it attacks? Say 2 Tactical Bombers to match up the fighters and a destroyer? Or a bunch of subs to attack the fleet near the coast?

    It seems wrong not be able to have some decent chance of defense when you know what is coming at you. I have only played the Global Game but the attacks you are talking about should work in both games for Germany.


  • Hah!  I’m full of it.  Wrong settings

    Here they are again.

    *note - for UK I say inf, but it is likley inf/art.  2 inf defending is better then 1 tank, so I’ll ignore tank buys.
    Worst case scenario for the German is:

    Germany  (worst)
    11 inf, 4 tanks, 5 art, 1fht, 1 bmb, 1 BB, 1 CR (assuming horrific losses in air at sea, and France was won w/ 1 tank)

    vs

    UK (best)
    21 inf, 4 fht, 1 tac

    Germany wins 7% w/ commonly 1 unit

    Average case scenario for Germany:

    10 inf, 6 tanks, 4 art, 2 fht, 2 tac, 1 bmb, 1 BB, 1 CR

    vs

    UK (average)
    20 inf, 4 fht

    Germany wins 71% w/ commonly 4 - 6 units

    Best case scenario for Germany:

    11 inf, 3 art, 8 tanks, 4 fht, 3 tac, 1 bmb, 1 BB, 1 CR

    vs

    UK (average)
    20 inf, 4 fht

    Geramny wins 99% w/ commonly 10 - 13 units

    That is the math, and it is repeatable, unless I missed something.

    Next turn Germnany has over $80 to spend, and the Allies have lost $28/turn.


  • Jim010,

    Is your G3 Sea Lion attack a done deal? Are there no buys in the game for the UK that will defeat Sea Lion? I hope this game does not have a “best” move that will always be done by Germany vs. the UK for the first 3 turns.

    Instead of infantry, is it possible to buy subs/ships/planes to destroy the German navy before it attacks? Say 2 Tactical Bombers to match up the fighters and a destroyer? Or a bunch of subs to attack the fleet near the coast?

    It seems wrong not be able to have some decent chance of defense when you know what is coming at you. I have only played the Global Game but the attacks you are talking about should work in both game for Germany.

    Try it, but I don’t think it would work.  You are building a fleet that has to withstand 1 - 3 sb, 1 CR, 1 BB, 1 CV and the planes.  My planes won’t be needed on London, as you didn’t buy ground units - not will I need as many ground units, so they can be transported elsewhere.  I might not even bother buying as many TTs.

    Buying planes won’t help, as 3 defending inf is better than 1 defending fht.

    I will say that I’m not 100% sure that the game is broken, but I do know that I don’t want allies.

1 / 5

Suggested Topics

Axis & Allies Boardgaming Custom Painted Miniatures

34

Online

17.6k

Users

40.2k

Topics

1.7m

Posts